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#player1 Rafi Rafi
#player2 Cesar Cesar
>Rafi: GIINRSW 8D WIRINGS +80 80
#note California Open - game for first place and three consecutive CO championships. After this play I know I have the game wrapped up (unless Cesar immediately bingos) because Cesar will be on megatilt.
>Cesar: BEOOSUV E5 OBV.OUS +48 48
>Rafi: EFIOOSX 7E .OX +40 120
#note #1 play upon simulation of all choices.
>Cesar: AAEINRW J6 WA. +14 62
#note Cesar: The equity play here is D4 AWA. It's funny how WAS and AW at D4 sim so similarly (about 1.5 pts) but AW is far superior. The best way I can explain why I did this was nerves + tilt. I've never been in this situation before in a big game basically. I did have a few reasons for WAS, but it's not really worth explaining because it's wrong. (also SAW because of -ING endings and N hook but that's beside the point). (-7.5)
>Rafi: EEFIOST K5 FOE +19 139
#note #1 play upon simulation of all choices.
>Cesar: AEIILNR I8 .AINLIER +61 123
>Rafi: AEISTUZ 15F AZU.ITES +104 243
#note Ok gg Cesar. Better luck next year. Cesar: good punishment for the WAS sequence.
>Cesar: DDEGHIK 14B HIKED +41 164
#note didn't see EKED 14I. I don't know if it's better. I don't want to block the S. but HIKED gives up more pts. What's the play?
>Rafi: EELMOOT M9 TELOME. +20 263
#note First play where I have an actual decision - even though I know I'm going to win I can't play sloppy. The only play that scores more than 23 is OMELET for 29, which busts the board wide open. TELOMES really does exactly what I want, blocking a ton of lanes, going for blanks, and scoring well.
>Cesar: ABDEEGR L8 DEBAG +36 200
#note Rafi: DEBAG: To remove the pants from someone.
Cesar: L8 BAREGE is probably better. it's 4 more points and AT takes more hooks. i didnt like playing DEBAG that much, but I really felt like I needed to score.
>Rafi: FMOORTU J10 FOOT +34 297
>Cesar: ?AERTTU N5 oUTRATE +73 273
#note Rafi: Cesar is a luckbag
Cesar: didn't see TUATERA at N7. scores 5 more, but it's also easier for opp to score. as it turns out i would not have won if i'd played it :P -4
>Rafi: HIJMPRU F2 JUMP +35 332
#note Overlooked MUJIK. Also didn't consider JUMP/Po (next to OUTRATE), which makes a play to triple not as deadly because it doesn't open new lanes. I play MUJIK if I see it, PHR has a lot of flexibility. Also how in the world did Cesar bingo? I guess it's ok for him to at least feel like he has a chance.
>Cesar: ACDEENQ O1 DANCE +34 307
#note I guess DANCE is pretty standard. I was feeling pretty happy about the play, even if it hadn't worked, but it's basically my only real chance to win. QADI basically hands the game to him.
>Rafi: ADHINRR 15A RANI +29 361
#note Well there's the mistake... I missed DHARNA. Frustrating because I wanted to play there as it's clearly worth sacrificing raw equity to block the D. Brace yourselves... things are about to get messy.
>Cesar: ?EIQRST 1H SQuIRTE. +104 411
#note NOOOOOOOOOOO Cesar why did you squirt on me?!? Cesar: insane draw.
>Rafi: ADEHNRY 13B AY +28 389
#note Bad mistake here... HAY is clearly better. I was pretty shellshocked after Cesar squirted on me and couldn't come up with the right play. The problem with AY is that I almost certainly lose if I draw two consonants, and really only win if I draw a vowel AND Cesar has a very hard time dealing with the lane AND I actually have a lucky out in two sequence or hit one of the few bingos through the U. If I play HAY, I can draw the C for DRENCH or some C- play making ALEC, both of which will frequently outrun whatever Cesar does. After HAY I draw the C one quarter of the time, and also have some bingo potential through the U. It turns out the C was in the bag, so this might have worked :(
>Cesar: EGLLNPY A10 GLEY +18 429
#note wow. GLEY only wins 57 or so % of the time. ? Apparently the right play here is G3 PYE. is quackle right? or 14L YELP. i saw too many possible bingos to line A. The V is the big issue here; if i draw three consonants including the V i'm dead a lot of the time. didn't realize how close i came to losing. i made this exact mistake against ken kasney in round 13 or so, and it cost me the game -- basically, thinking that a bingo is the only way i could lose. i feel like this one is harder because i have to start enumerating possible bingos and try to inference what he could have kept. Looking at the details window, GLEY cuts down his bingo % to 9%, yes, but i'm going to lose a lot of games where I draw crap, most likely.
>Rafi: DEHNORV F10 HOD +30 419
#note Ran out of time searching for a win that wasn't there. GG Cesar!
>Cesar: ACILNP D1 PANIC +31 460
>Rafi: ENRV 2A VER. +14 433
>Cesar: L N1 .L +8 468
>Cesar: (N) +2 470
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