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#player1 Kevin_Leeds Kevin Leeds
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Kevin_Leeds: ?DEERST -?DE +0 0
>Jim_Burlant: CCIKLOZ 8D CLOCK +32 32
#note Maybe a bit too paranoid about possible CLOCKING extensions, so I played here for 32 instead of at 8H for 36.
>Kevin_Leeds: EGINRTU D5 ERU.TING +72 72
>Jim_Burlant: AAIINOZ 11B ZI.NIA +30 62
#note This or ZORI 6B are the best Z plays I have. Q prefers ZORI keeping duplicated A's; I don't. It also likes 6A IZAR keeping an overloaded AINO. While I don't particularly like the AO leave with this choice (not to mention the S hook at H11), all my choices have baggage so I figured I'd opt for turnover and rack cleaning. ZORI wins 35%, this wins 34-1/2 and sims roughly 1-1/2 points down.
>Kevin_Leeds: EILOSTV I2 VIOLETS +76 148
#note In case you're keeping track, Kevin is now the third straight opponent to follow up a bingo with another one right out of the bag.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEFMOV 4H F.VEA +30 92
#note I thought I might have missed something here, but the only 8 in this rack (which I never recognized) is WAVEFORM, which does not play. As for this - I didn't like the E back hook I was opening up, but I do have the blank, and the F and V absolutely have to go. Q agrees - this is best. 27-1/2% to win.
>Kevin_Leeds: OX J4 .OX +56 204
#note As Yogi Berra (RIP) would have said, it's like déja vu all over again. Kevin is the third straight opponent to hit me with an X or Z bomb for 50+.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DFMOOO B11 .OOM +30 122
#note Failure to recognize one of the new words: MOFO scores 25 at C3. The duck also likes 3L MOFO and 3L FOOD. While this outscores everything else, MOFO and FOOD unload the F and do more to give me a board that may allow me back into the game. FOOD 3L wins 14.7%; this wins 13.2 and sims 1.1 points down.
>Kevin_Leeds: ABEIPST 10F BAPTISE +81 285
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEEFOT M7 FEEDlOT +93 215
#note Not at all thrilled with the vowel placement, but 93 points is 93 points, and the M2 and M3 placements only score 84. I need points, and Quackle agrees. 8% to win.
>Kevin_Leeds: IQ 9J QI +24 309
>Jim_Burlant: AILOOUY A13 YOU +27 242
#note Best, but it's still bleak - 4-1/2% to win. C13 YOU is also a good choice as it gives me a marginal chance at a 3x3.
>Kevin_Leeds: BIM L6 MIB +22 331
>Jim_Burlant: AHILORW K3 H.W +30 272
#note This is good, but a much better play was available: C13 WAR scores 35 and clears out an R. The R is normally an essential building block, but with 4 unseen (3rd most probable tile in the remaining pool) it'd be a good idea to play mine off.
>Kevin_Leeds: EL H6 LE. +19 350
>Jim_Burlant: AEILORY M1 ROILY +28 300
#note This is the highest equity play I have, but it doesn't top a sim. Q feels I should play L12 YEAR for 28 keeping a more balanced ILO. I understand where Q is coming from but I'm not convinced it will help me win; it feels to me like, if I open up there, Kevin will then play something at 15H that defends and shuts down most, if not all, of the lines in the south. My thinking was that if I had to open a triple, he'd play to O1 and open a line for an 8 that way. I also want to turn 5 tiles with the blank unseen, not 4. YMMV. 7.5% to win; OIL wins 8.7.
>Kevin_Leeds: DEHI 1K HI.ED +30 380
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEPTU C2 TAUPE +20 320
#note Where are the R's and N's? Statically, PUREE 6B is best, but it doesn't fare so well in a sim, despite its AET leave. Why? Take a look at the pool - there are still 5 A's unseen. A sim indicates it's either this or L12 PEAT. My problem with PEAT is the same problem I had with YEAR on the previous turn. 5% to win.
>Kevin_Leeds: DGNU E2 DUNG +24 404
>Jim_Burlant: EEJNRSW L12 JEW +46 366
#note Finally, a rack with an obvious best play. If he doesn't have the S or blank and I have a good draw, this could get interesting in a hurry. This is clearly best - I'm back up to 15% winning chances. Unfortuantely, given how this tournament was going, I should have known better than to expect a good draw.
>Kevin_Leeds: GR 8L ..RG +21 425
>Jim_Burlant: AAENNRS B2 AN +10 376
#note It's hard to believe, but a check of Zyzzyva reveals these letters don't even make an 8 with anything in the alphabet. It's too late to play ANEARS on row 15 for 36; I need an out bingo so I need to fish off AN. Why this and not AN N5? If I didn't open the left side of the board, he'd bingo himself or play something like SAND 15L and I'd have nowhere to bingo. While the pool scared me, I felt my only chance to win the game was to open up and cross my fingers that he couldn't hit while I would, in turn, draw into a game winning bingo. The consolation: given his final rack, nothing I did here mattered. If I play at N5, he can't bingo but he can still play SAND 15L for 33 while my AAEENRS won't play anywhere.
>Kevin_Leeds: ?AADNST A3 ANSATeD +77 502
#note Sigh.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEENRS O5 SAN.AREE +60 436
>Jim_Burlant: (RR) +4 440
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