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#player1 Michael_Thelen Michael Thelen
#player2 Josh Josh
>Michael_Thelen: ABEISUV 8G ABUSIVE +82 82
>Josh: ?DGORTU M2 OUTRaG.D +76 76
#note I didn't really like putting the A there, as the X-bomb is not something I want to have to think about until it is taken, but I couldn't refuse the long-term board control that an unpluralizable word would give, but also the two points, cause as I stress it sometimes, you must score points to win.
>Michael_Thelen: ITTW 9F TWIT +28 110
>Josh: AAGIMSX N6 XI +52 128
#note And now I had no choice but to use the glorious X-bomb myself after other options were blocked by TWIT.
>Michael_Thelen: BDO O7 BOD +24 134
>Josh: AAGMRST 7I MAG +22 150
#note Missing L1 AGMA. I saw MAG(O)T and decided that it was silly to play that. But the A is important to keep here and is probably worth the point sacrifice, scoring defense and setup value of MAG.
>Michael_Thelen: ?ACINRU 4H URANi.IC +76 210
#note A nice 10B CRUcIAN is the play here. I definitely would have missed that. Scored as 74.
>Josh: AEEGRST 5D ERGATES +72 222
>Michael_Thelen: EIMN O1 MIN.E +27 237
>Josh: EFIOQTW 4B WIFE +32 254
>Michael_Thelen: ACINORT 7A CAROTIN +68 305
#note This was unexpected and annoying, as plays that I cannot respond to due to having drawn the Q go. 10A CAROTIN is similar in most ways except score to 7A, so that is correct here.
>Josh: EKLOOQT A5 LO.KET +36 290
#note Now what? Do I just get rid of my Q here with Q(A)T and let Michael, who is in time trouble, make an easier decision? I still have spots for my Q after this, but I am definitely strangled by the tile for at least 2 more turns. If I had a better leave, I would have played Q(A)T, but I think in this case I made the right, albeit tough decision of eating the Q for another turn.
>Michael_Thelen: H 6A .H +26 331
#note And it backfired tremedously, as Michael laid down 26 points with ease. Maybe I should have thought it through.
>Josh: AEILOQS C3 Q. +22 312
#note Finally, a leave with which I can happily part with the Q.
>Michael_Thelen: FLOP 3E FLOP +21 352
>Josh: AEILOOS 10H OE +13 325
#note now what? I'm too far behind to give myself a good chance of winning without a bingo, so it seemed a fish was necessary, especially since nothing scores well. I could have played VIOLA or VOILE for 19, but that's only 6 more points and much worse for my rack.
>Michael_Thelen: AHJ B9 HAJ +24 376
>Josh: AILOORS C11 OLIO +17 342
#note OORALIS being blocked, I should just play 11B JIAO. Got a bit antsy here. This does work better if he doesn't have an S though.
>Michael_Thelen: ANY D12 ANY +23 399
>Josh: AAEINRS 13C ..IA +4 346
#note I don't think I ever win after (V)AINER or (V)ARIA here. I need to open the board and bingo (hopefully bingo out)
>Michael_Thelen: EEZ 12F ZEE +24 423
#note Mike took a while to lay this down, and was visibly unhappy with having to play this.
>Josh: ADENRSS F12 ..S +14 360
#note And therefore, here I am, wondering if I have a better shot at winning by playing the bingo or by fishing of my S. Let's analyze both options separately.
What do I draw into if I fish off an S?
I hit with a D, an L, an R and a U. Ceteris paribus (all things remaining unchanged), I hit 4/10. But this does not translate into a 40% win. What if Mike blocks? What if I draw the V after he plays off one tile? What if he plays something with (ZA)P and outscores me. That last reason is why (ZA)S must be the best fish. Many plays for 35+ hooking ZA outscore me. I can't afford to leave that option open. I don't see anywhere else where he can outscore me with such ease.
Can he block? Yes, but it's very hard, especially given his time trouble. He is much more likely to play off one tile or empty the bag and make a play somewhere. There are actually 3 distinct spots on this board and he can't block them all unless he plays down the V at L8.
This is when inference comes in. He must not have had the P or the D when he played ZEE. He is also very likely to have at least two of the three vowels. So how foolproof is playing the bingo at 14F?
If 1 of the three unseen tiles is a vowel, it looks like I can win in the endgame. He just drew 3 of 6, so he has a 1/2 shot of having drawn the last vowel. so 50% of the time, I can't draw an outplay in the endgame that won't be blocked, and given that he has two moves to overcome a one-point deficit (the score is 422-421 in my favor as we had underscored Mike by 2) with all of the vowels to my none, it doesn't look like I can win. Given a two-vowel inference, I therefore have a 50% chance of winning. If he has all of the vowels, I'm screwed.
With that inference, I have a 4/8 chance of drawing into a bingo that plays on this board. ENDEARS and PANDERS did not play. But of course he can always
block/screw up and give me somewhere for PANDERS/ENDEARS.
With a two-vowel inference, I'm seeing that it's even. Both plays win 50% of the time. I should therefore play SANDERS for spread purposes.
Finally, I must add that I thought REPANDS* was valid, alas REPAND is an adjective. This also clouded my judgment most definitely, and perhaps I would have played S(OY) for 12 to leave PANDERS/ZAP open had I known...
>Michael_Thelen: ELRUVY 11I RULY +21 444
#note His leave ended up being EUVY, which means that I had a 3/6 chance of drawing into a bingo with DELNPR in the pool and a 3/6 chance of drawing the E to likely win the game in the endgame. Still should have played the bingo.
>Josh: ADEENRS H1 DE...E +27 387
#note -3 to RE(PUT)E or 12L ANDS.
>Michael_Thelen: DENPV H12 .VEN +21 465
#note -2 to H12 (E)VEN
>Josh: ANRS L11 .ARNS +18 405
>Josh: (DP) +10 415
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