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#player1 Sam_Dick-Onuoha Sam Dick-Onuoha
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AFG 8G FAG +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEIOOY -EIOOY +0 0
#note Why not GOOEY? While that salvages the best possible leave of the non-exchange options, it gives back too many 40-point plays to H15. With this, if he doesn't have a bingo, he's making a routine play, and I've groomed the rack that much more. The sim is a virtual toss-up. YOGEE I6 and this are toggling back and forth atop the 2-ply sim well past 1400 iterations. Equity is within 0.1 points of each other. GOOEY, by comparison, wins 3/4% less often and sims nearly 2 points down.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ABEGL 7E GLEBA +24 38
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEJNNZ -EJNZ +0 0
#note I saw the obvious JEE/JEEZ 6I and was so frightened by the back hooks those plays created that I took minutes to look for the better play that wasn't there. JEE was a non-starter because almost 1/4 of the unseen pool back-hooked it. It also didn't help that the E back hook to GLEBA didn't occur to me because it may have been worthwhile to burn the blank with JEeZE. Anyway, after not liking JAG or ZAG and not seeing anything else, I forgot about JEE/JEEZ so I exchanged. Though I shouldn't be exchanging here, between the NN? leave and the defensive nightmare JEEZ creates, I'm exchanging instead of taking 33 points...and I don't even lose 17 points in a sim. JEEZ wins 49.8%; this wins 42. Bleah.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: PTTU 9E PUTT +19 57
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIMNQR 8D QI +27 27
#note If I'd played JEEZ, I'd be sitting on IMNNQR?, potentially exchanging if a Q play didn't exist, and would probably be sweating about whether he'd back hook JEEZ for at least 40 points if he hadn't already. At least he opened up a Q play for me; thank goodness for small favors.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: EWY J5 WYE +26 83
>Jim_Burlant: ?EKMNRS 6I M. +13 40
#note What is with all these low-probability draws? Not quite sure what to do here. I didn't want to unload my only vowel and I thought I could maneuver him into opening up. Best is apparently MAGS I6 but I didn't consider plays which burned the S, which left this. A sim indicates MAGS is slightly better but this is a very strong choice. 46% to win.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AGT 10H TAG +14 97
>Jim_Burlant: ?EKNORS 11H StONKER +81 121
#note Q likes SNORKEL (blank L) better, and maybe it would have been safer to play at 11B with something like hONKERS. But this wound up being the best of all worlds for me. 53-1/2% to win in a short sim.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: EFLNRRT - +0 97
#note Lost challenge.
>Jim_Burlant: DEEEORU K2 ROUE +18 139
#note There's not much else to do with this since I don't have a play to obstruct the O column and I need to deal with the vowel overload. I'm now up to 63-1/2% to win.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: DEOSW O8 DOWSE +41 138
>Jim_Burlant: DEEHNOS L8 HON.ED +36 175
#note Not that I would have found it, but the only 8 in this rack, KEESHOND, doesn't play. This is a strong choice but a slightly better play was available: these same letters score 38 at N9 with HORNED. HORNED wins 68%; this wins 66 and sims 3 points down.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AEIJRSV 3H JAR.VISE +88 226
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AEIJRSV -- -88 138
>Jim_Burlant: EEILRST M3 LEISTER +76 251
#note Or RETILES. 93-1/2% to win.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AEIJRSV 13J JA.E +24 162
>Jim_Burlant: BDLMOTU N9 DO.M +25 276
#note I initially saw DUMBO 14F, which outscores all my other choices and clears the rack better than everything else. But there's no reason to give him a lifeline. Then I found this; it scores just about as well and, most importantly, gives absolutely nothing back. Hardly a surprise, Q wants me to groom the rack with N13 DUB and says this wins slightly less and is a 1-point dog to DUB. I'm fine with this.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ILRSV 3J R.L. +4 166
>Jim_Burlant: BDLPTUZ I1 PUTZ +22 298
#note Yes, this opens up row 1. But the P isn't the easiest thing for him to bingo through and this outscores his last turn by 18 points. Q agrees - this is best.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: INSV 1G NI. +15 181
>Jim_Burlant: ?BDILOX 14M XI +27 325
#note Plays underlapping the J (BOX, LOX) score more, but, like DUMBO a few turns ago, give Sam a lifeline. This scores 27 and gives no more than 20 points back. Q agrees - I'm 99.99% to win.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AASV 2E AVA +16 197
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABDLOT D1 BLOT +25 350
#note While the sim makes it official that I can no longer lose this game, this is the wrong execution of the right idea; with the S unseen, I should play BLOAT to ensure he can't play a spread-saving 7 hooking the unseen S.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: CIRS 1A CRI. +24 221
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADFIIU A1 .UIF +13 363
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AEN C3 NAE +12 233
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEIIO 14J OI +17 380
#note What is it, something about greed being one of the deadly sins? I was so sure that Sam was probably overloaded with counters that, in possession of the blank, I thought I'd get cute and give myself two places to bingo. Best is N6 OI for 10 since anything he can put down will probably create a line for me to bingo on.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: CEIORSV 15F VOICERS +102 335
#note Just desserts.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEINY B5 AY +15 395
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AHN N6 HA +28 363
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEIN 10A DINEs +13 408
#note A6 MINED 19.
>Jim_Burlant: (N) +2 410
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