| Player 1 |
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#player1 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Chris_Cree: AKY 8G YAK +20 20
>Jim_Burlant: DGIRRSV H6 GR.VID +11 11
#note VIRGA H4 is safer but this clears more of the rack. The two-ply sim can't decide if VIRGA or my play is better; approaching 2000 iterations they toggle back and forth with each other at the top of the sim, evaluating within 0.2 points of each other.
>Chris_Cree: ENUW 11D UNWE. +18 38
>Jim_Burlant: ?AADORS 9G O.A +21 32
#note After he blocked my intended DeO(D)ARAS, the only 8's I recognized either didn't play (MATADORS) or they only scored 58 and slotted the 3x3 (MADRONAS/PADRONAS). I couldn't find anything through the G (didn't know PODAGRAS) and it didn't occur to me to look through the V. With this fish scoring 21 and preserving ADRS?, I cut my losses to not bleed all my time away. Even so, I lost a lot of time on this turn. A sim confirms that, relative to the bingos I saw, this is a better play. That said, the two bingoes that would have been worth playing were 9E bRAVADOS (wins 65%) and J2 pARADOS, which I missed (wins 63.8, sims 0.6 points behind BRAVADOS). The surprise to me is that this barely concedes 6 points and 3% winning chances to BRAVADOS.
>Chris_Cree: AZ 6F ZA. +33 71
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADLRSS J5 RASSLeD +77 109
#note This turn also took several minutes. I initially looked for 8's since I didn't recognize there was a 7 in this rack. When I finally saw the 7, I played it here instead of on row 12 because I always confuse whether GRAVIDA or GRAVITA* is the legitimate word and didn't want to chance that I'd play for 0. The 12G placement scores 81 to this play's 77. 61% to win.
>Chris_Cree: BELP K3 PLEB +24 95
>Jim_Burlant: EIMNORU 12D MUON +29 138
#note The only 8 in this rack is MONSIEUR, and it doesn't play. This is best. 64% to win.
>Chris_Cree: AX L4 AX +32 127
>Jim_Burlant: BEGHIRW M1 WHIG +26 164
#note Apparently I need to be a hair more patient with the rack grooming here: 13E BEG scores 25 and doesn't give him easy points on row 1. BEG wins 62.8%; this wins 61-1/2 and is the runner up, 2 points down.
>Chris_Cree: NRT 3K .R.NT +17 144
>Jim_Burlant: BEEIILR O1 BI.E +21 185
#note I saw this, saw the EILR leave and that was that. Q says I should have taken out all row 1 possibilities with 1L LWEI for 24. Really? BEIR instead of EILR? I don't know that I like keeping the B without an L. That said, the difference in the sim is negligible. LWEI wins 66.9%; this wins 66.5 and sims 0.2 points down. I'd make this play again; YMMV.
>Chris_Cree: DL F11 ..LD +12 156
>Jim_Burlant: AEILMRR O1 ....R +7 192
#note Chris was daring me to defend against his S, and I didn't have the rack to do it. I considered RUM D10 but didn't think that would give me anywhere to play my probable -IER bingo on the next turn. Since I didn't see anything that offered a place to play my bingo, I saw the 7 points for this fish since it outscored RUM and hoped I'd be able to overlap his probable row 15 play on the next turn. Q agrees that fishing is a viable option, but RUM and another play I never recognized were the way to go about it: 10J eR for 1. eR looks interesting, but concerning at the same time. The positives to eR: given this pool, AEILMR will draw into a 7 with 37 of the 48 unseen tiles and as long as the spot stays open it's practically a shoe-in for me to hit it since he's almost assuredly going to take out row 15. But if the fish don't bite, eR could potentially create a spot I can't defend later in the game. All that said, if I had this turn to do again, eR looks better than my play because of what it does to the board. My choice of BITER wins 4% less often and sims 6 points down on RUM. What does the duck know that I don't?
>Chris_Cree: CNSY 15F SYNC +36 192
>Jim_Burlant: AEILMRT 10B MIL +16 208
#note And if I'd made the RUM or eR fishes, I'd be bingoing. Instead I have another turn where I don't score. Best is apparently D10 LUM for 5; this is reasonable but not best in the duck's eyes. LUM wins 60%; this wins 57 and sims 4 pts down.
>Chris_Cree: IITTU 11J .UIT +10 202
#note Partial rack - he had duplicated I's and T's on this turn.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEGIRT M6 AIGRE.TE +72 280
#note At least this turn was easy. This is my only bingo - 88% to win in a short sim.
>Chris_Cree: EF N9 EF +28 230
#note To the lower division players reading this game, take a good look at what Chris is doing. He trails by 78 points and, with only one bingo line open, he's making sure the board stays alive before everything else is shut down. If he doesn't make a play that opens up a line right now, the game would be over as I'm sure to extend the M on the next turn. What he did this turn saved the game for him.
>Jim_Burlant: ACEIOPU O7 CUE +18 298
#note Quackle's suggestions for this turn are useless. He's obviously close to something and I can't let him have an easy run at the O column with EEEEESTTT are still unseen. Maybe POI in the same location for a slightly better leave as well as to preserve the U as Q insurance, but on a dead board, I'd rather unload the C than the P. If he can't hit the B column this turn, I will kill the southwest on the next turn and the game will over. Given my options this is fine. 82% to win.
>Chris_Cree: ?DEIOST B8 cO.EDIST +70 300
#note He's still 29% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIOOP A13 POI +27 325
#note Yikes! The leave is atrocious, but I cannot pass up 27 points given how little scoring there is on this board. I spent a while here too, trying to conjure up a new 4 that didn't exist. Q confirms it's either this or ATOP 15A. 47% to win. ATOP gets the nod in a sim because (a) the AEIO leave is slightly better and (b) it doesn't give back NE for 17. That wound up not mattering.
>Chris_Cree: Q 7L Q. +11 311
>Jim_Burlant: AAEEEJO F3 JEE.E +21 346
#note As much as I wanted to exchange, I felt there were too many points available and I'd have to grind through. I considered JEEZ, but nixed that when I saw the unseen pool threatened to back hook it with HIVE/FIVE, so JEEZE it was. A four-ply sim confirms that I made the correct play. JEEZE tops the sim, and AE B13 is also reasonable. JEEZ wins 8% less often and exchanging concedes 14% winning chances to JEEZE.
>Chris_Cree: HO N5 OH +28 339
>Jim_Burlant: AANOOOR N12 ANOA +12 358
#note Against perfect play by Chris, I don't have a win. Short on time, I had mistracked and thought that he had EFINTTV even though the unplayed A was identified on my tracking sheet. Mistakenly thinking the bag was empty and not bothering to check it, I didn't draw after playing ANOA and I thought I was threatening an out-in-two with ROO G1. This went down with 0:05 on my clock.
>Chris_Cree: AEFINTV 3C FAN.ET +34 373
#note Unlike me, Chris had managed his time effectively and still had 9 minutes left. He saw I only had 3 tiles in my rack and that I'd left one in the bag. If I'd drawn the tile as I should have, I'd have been sitting on OORT and with 9 minutes on his clock, I'll give Chris the benefit of the doubt and assume he recognized that FANJET would have given me a ROOT out for a win. But, since he was observant, that made things a lot easier for him.
>Jim_Burlant: OOR E7 ROO +5 363
#note I was down to 0:05 after ANOA and slapped this down without looking at the board. While it doesn't win, ROTO H1 would have reduced spread. It was only after I announced myself as going out that he informed me there was one more tile in the bag waiting for me.
>Chris_Cree: IV 5D VI. +12 385
>Chris_Cree: (T) +2 387
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