| Player 1 |
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#player1 John_Stardom John Stardom
#player2 Matthew_Tunnicliffe Matthew Tunnicliffe
>John_Stardom: AGIINNV 8G VIN +12 12
#note Looks like this was pretty dumb next to VINING 8D 28.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EHHLOUW J6 WHOLE +28 28
>John_Stardom: AAGIINT G7 A.IATING +65 77
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ABGHIOU F10 HABU +38 66
>John_Stardom: ?CDDEOT E11 CODED +37 114
#note Keeping ED and just playing COD is better.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AEEGIOP H12 AGIO +34 100
>John_Stardom: ?AENQRT K10 TRANQ +30 144
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EEFPSTU 15K SPUTE +45 145
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EEFPSTU -- -45 100
#note ...
>John_Stardom: ?ACELRX F1 eXECRAL +85 229
>John_Stardom: ?ACELRX -- -85 144
#note My first big mistake. Any reasonable play leaves me in the mid 80% win after 2 turns while missing a turn due to eXECRAL* knocks me down to 75% and gives away vital information. AXLED 15A seems to be tops.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EEFPSTU 15K STUPE +39 139
>John_Stardom: ?ACELRX L11 EX +38 182
#note Now all of a sudden EX is best. I'll take it. EXoCARP is fun.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EEFIKNU M10 KIEF +35 174
>John_Stardom: ?ACELOR O8 RELOCAt. +86 268
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EENSTUW N3 UNSWEET +72 246
#note phony
>John_Stardom: DFGJORY 15A FJOR. +51 319
#note Thank goodness all of my valid plays are near optimal - my phony-playing and phony-allowing are killing me. UNSWEET*. Sheesh.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ABELMOV O1 BEMA +34 280
>John_Stardom: DGIPSSY 3J GYPS.. +28 347
#note Nailed it.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AILORUV L1 VA.OUR +30 310
>John_Stardom: DIILNST H7 L.NT +14 361
#note This play took me forever and probably cost me the game. After VAPOUR, I'm wagering that he has the blank. I think I was at least hoping for the Z. Neither the D nor F columns were going to allow a monster score but I don't know what possessed me to not move an I. Especially as I have the S for the SAL and SCAT hooks. The best play I actually considered was LIDO C12, although NITID F3 and LID F5 are solid. 71% win after 2 turns instead of about 80 with LIDO.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AEILMTZ C11 MATZ. +32 342
#note I thought long and hard about what LINT implied. I decided it meant he probably had the S, but not the blank. Or it could just mean he has a garbage rack of consonants. Either way, I decided it was going to be possible to pull the blank from the bag. If not for this inference, I was definitely going to go all-in on the MAZELTOV fish. Decent shot at a huge bingo that outruns even his own bingo to SCAT. And he's unlikely to block. But LINT really made me think I should go for turnover for the blank, while also scoring pionts to potentially outrun the scenario in which he has complete drek.
>John_Stardom: DDEIIIS 1J DI.E +8 369
#note Now I'm really screwed. There's no place to move two Is without emptying the bag. Which in all likelihood doesn't contain the blank anymore. I considered DIDIES F2 which comes in third for win% behind ID F6 and DIDIE B7, but I thought that was a game concession. If I put Matt's actual tiles on his rack though, both DIDIE and DIDIES seem to win. why? BECAUSE THE BLANK IS STILL IN THE BAG. I should have at least played DEVI to disallow ENDIVE.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EEILNOY I13 YEN +30 372
#note Not quite. I had the right idea to score and turn over as many tiles as possible to threaten outs, but there's a better way. 7J HOYLE keeps the EN to threaten ENDIVE, which makes things really tricky for John. HOYLE wins 2.5 times out of 8, while YEN wins 2 out of 8. That said, both plays could win some of those losses because some draws require a perfect endgame from John in a tricky position. He will need to make the perfect block while also setting up multiple outs. Not necessarily easy with a couple minutes to solve it. HOYLE is really tough to see, but I wish I hadn't missed it... because I'm kind of fucking up every single pre-endgame if you havent noticed
>John_Stardom: DIIORRS F3 IRIDS +13 382
#note 75% chance to draw the blank and have a shot. Fail. ODS M6 is best.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ?EILO E2 ObELI +18 390
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: (OR) +4 394 |
