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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Sam_Dick-Onuoha Sam Dick-Onuoha
>Jim_Burlant: ILRRSTV 8G VIRL +14 14
#note Without the S in hand, playing at 8E becomes more appealing. But I'm guaranteed to have an S while Sam has at best a 1-in-4 or 1-in-5 chance of having one. This is best.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: EY J8 .EY +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: EIRSTUW -UW +0 14
#note The first 5 tiles in this rack were EIRST. I was just shaking my head when the U and W came out afterwards. The only options I considered in re: playing through were VIEW/WIVE down the G column and I couldn't justify breaking up this much of the rack for so few points while still keeping the U. Q agrees - this is best. WIVE G6 wins 1-1/2% less often and sims almost 4 points down.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ET 7H TE +8 22
>Jim_Burlant: AEIRSTU -U +0 14
#note So that's how it's going to be: unload a U and get a U right back. I debated between 3 plays: TAU K9, VAU G8, and this. TAU breaks up SATIRE for a needless volatililty and not much score. VAU has vowel placement issues, and it breaks up SATIRE while not scoring well. And it doesn't opening something that isn't already there. The sim says this and one other play I didn't consider are best: I7 ERA for 7. At 2000 iterations this and ERA are toggling back and forth at the top of the sim, winning within 0.02% and evaluating within 0.1 points of each other.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AN 9H NA. +11 33
>Jim_Burlant: AEGIRST K2 GAITERS +74 88
#note Considered this word and 11D AIGRETS. Was it worth taking out the 2x2 for 1 less point but opening up 12A plays? Or should I just take points? I couldn't come up with a clear-cut answer, so I applied the Jeff Reeves maxim Darrell Day imparted to me years ago: when in doubt, take the points. Q says I should have played TRIAGES K2 instead of this. Makes sense - TRIAGES doesn't put the vowel next to J6. But that's picking nits and this really didn't make a huge difference in the game.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: DLV 6J V.LD +16 49
>Jim_Burlant: AEENOSU 11D AENEOUS +71 159
#note Luck box! This also plays at 10B for 65, but this scores 71 and is best. 88% to win in a short sim.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: EIMNOPT D7 PTOM.INE +76 125
#note Best bingo for Sam looks to be M3 PIEDMONT for 84. N1 PIMENTO scores 87 but plays with fire. Nonetheless, this wound up helping Sam.
>Jim_Burlant: CMNRWWY 4J W.NCY +26 185
#note Yikes! In this case, word confusion helped me. Was about to play WARY, WANY, YAWN, etc., when I saw this in a moment of inspiration and slapped it down. The legitimate word is WINCEY; this is phony. My best legitimate play is WYND M3 for 22, which wins not quite 67%. This wins 3% more often and evaluates 6 points better. Fortunately for me this wasn't so much as held.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ACP 8A PAC. +24 149
>Jim_Burlant: ?DMRRSW C8 .WM +29 214
#note I considered a pair of plays here: DREW 14B and this. I didn't like keeping dupe R's but had a hard time convincing myself that it was worth sacrificing 13 points to unload one. This is a conflicted sim, in that the highest valuation play (this) is the runner-up, as it wins 0.15% less often than the highest winning play, DREW. Between the leave (MRS? with DREW as opposed to DRRS? with this) and the fact that I've seriously constricted the B column while I have the blank (the other source of angst I had over this choice), DREW wins a hair more. 89.47% to win; DREW wins 89.62. Tough call.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ?EIOORZ 13C s.OOZIER +104 253
#note If I play DREW, he "only" hits OOZIER for 52 and still keeps a blank. Ouch! Sam has gone from 12% winning chances to 64% in barely a couple of turns.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DJRRSX H11 .X.DS +63 277
#note The PTOMAINES possibility had tantalized me from the instant he put it down. It was getting more than a little frustrating that I was sitting on an S for the second straight turn and that I was unable to land a vowel for the third straight turn. I looked at this rack in almost pure disbelief and almost exchanged JRDX out of frustraton. Then I saw this, and that was that. This is definitely best. It's almost 70% to win.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AF 14F FA. +39 292
>Jim_Burlant: ?EJQRRS -JQR +0 277
#note Enough of this crap! In case you haven't noticed, including the 7 tiles I drew after my AENEOUS bingo, this makes 1 vowel, 14 consonants, and a blank in my last 16 tiles from a vowel-overloaded pool. This turn was not a no-brainer for me. I considered JaRS 15A, as 47 points were hard to resist. However, when I considered my possibilities on the next turn, I'd still be stuck with the Q, which meant I was looking at 47 followed up by a possible exchange. J and Q are useless on this board and I need to bingo with the blank. Q agrees with me - this is best. Though I didn't consider it, exchanging QR and keeping the J is also viable, as it sets up plays like JINS/JOGS/etc. at 15A on the next turn that score 50+ while keeping the blank. 67-1/2% to win. The sim confirms that burning the blank with JaRS is fools gold, as it wins 7% less often and sims 4 or 5 points down.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ADEILRT N6 TRAILED +73 365
#note TRIALED may be a bit better here. Nonetheless, Sam's in good shape, at 91% to win, but not for long.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EGNORS A8 .ERiGONS +86 363
#note Or PyROGENS in the same location. 29.5% to win.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: AIQ 12L QA.I +30 395
>Jim_Burlant: ADIINOT 2D IODATIN. +66 429
#note Luck box! This is my only bingo, and I'm 53% to win.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ABEFGHR O11 F.BER +35 430
#note And Sam takes the wrong fork in the road. This was his rack, and the unseen pool threatens JAUK/JAUK 1A. He has to defend that...but he doesn't. Simulated against my next rack of EIJKLOT, his best play is clearly something on row 1 - FEH or FAH 1G, or 1A ARGH.
>Jim_Burlant: EIJKLOT 1E JOKE +69 498
#note Okay, I don't have JAUK 1A, but this is just as good. Game, set, and match.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: ABEGHUU 3E GAB +36 466
>Jim_Burlant: HILOTU N14 HO +22 520
#note N1 OILY wins by 3 more, but whatever.
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: EHUU O7 EH +32 498
>Jim_Burlant: ILTU M2 LU.I. +16 536
>Sam_Dick-Onuoha: UU 14A .U +4 502
>Jim_Burlant: T F13 ..T +6 542
>Jim_Burlant: (U) +2 544
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