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#player1 Joshua_Sokol Joshua Sokol
#player2 Sam_Moch Sam Moch
>Joshua_Sokol: AEIORWW H7 WOW +18 18
#note And it begins! I was happy to be playing Sam for the first time.
>Sam_Moch: ?CDGRRU 8G G.URD +7 7
#note When he played this, I imagined it couldn't be the right play, but then he gave me his leave, this play jumped up as having the best score+leave of any other option. Nevertheless, as Sam didn't think there was any other option, I noted that exchanging keeping the same leave or CDR was a good alternative. A simulation postulates that playing GOURD allows me both to play a bingo more often (due mostly to the R and the D, but also since GOURD takes an E, conceding possibly more 7s than an exchange would. Also, if I do not draw into a bingo, Sam's play of GOURD would allow me to score a tad bit better than an exchange would, due to the floating D on a double-double lane, the R between two triple letter scores, and simple 5s forming GOURDE. Otherwise, it seems that leaving WOW on the board will make it easier for Sam to bingo next turn than GOURD would, although bingos may concede more, i.e by placing a tile in a triple-triple lane. So, the only other positive argument I can find for GOURD is that of long-term defense. If Sam can draw into a bingo next turn, he will be able to control the board relatively well. In the end I think I prefer exchanging DGRU to playing GOURD ever so slightly. Another option that neither Sam nor I seemed to consider here is DUR(O)C. In the interest of keeping my chances of scoring or getting down a bingo as low as possible while making a play, DUR(O)C seems like a decent candidate. The G is not a better tile to keep than the C, since it decreases both scoring and bingo opportunities for Sam in the future, but the superior defense of the play makes up for that. I'm personally against keeping a G in most cases, and that is a large factor for me, but I see the interest in playing DUROC. I think I still ever so slightly prefer the exchange, but all three plays are certaintly competitors!
>Joshua_Sokol: ADEFIRZ K5 FAD.IER +48 66
#note Here, my draw of DFZ, coupled by Sam's donation of the perfect tile in the perfect spot, allowed me to make an extremely strong play on many fronts. FADDIER not only scores very well, it does not take any hooks, does not give back any decent lanes that didn't already exist, and beautifully sets up my Z for massive scoring with a pull of any of EL, BI, AI, EF, IF, CO, EO, OORT or IIV (and there are others). The necessity of a specific 2 or more-tile draw, as well as the likelihood that Sam's next play will block some or all of the big Z plays, makes it unlikely the "setup" will be fulfilled, but it's not that improbable.
>Sam_Moch: ?CEEIJR 10J J.E +26 33
#note Sam saw REJoICE(R) here, but didn't think it was a word. If he had played it, I think I might have challenged, but either way I would've agonized over it for a while. It is indeed valid, which would be my hunch. REJOICER's validity makes J(E)E a medium error.
>Joshua_Sokol: AHINOYZ J5 IZA. +72 138
#note Another fabulous pull, and although it is likely worth it, conceding a lucrative S lane wasn't my favorite part of this play. It's not increasing his bingo chances, since (WOW)S still exists, but it's keeping the board bingo-friendly when I have both a substantial lead and a much less bingo-ey range than Sam does. Him having given me more than 50 points for (JEE)Z/Z___ plays had me slightly hesitant to lay this down. ZANY exhibits far superior board control than IZAR.
>Sam_Moch: ?CEEILR 4D CEILERs +81 114
#note Sam's other option is M7 tIERCEL for 79, a tough find. I believe that in the interest of keeping the board open for bingos for a few turns at least, tIERCEL is better than CEILERs by a small margin.
>Joshua_Sokol: HILNOOY H1 HOO.Y +33 171
#note It sucks that I am keeping all quadrants of the board open here, but given the state of the scoreboard I don't believe I can afford to sacrifice so much in terms of score and leave. I am comfortable playing on an open board with a lead almost as large as a bingo.
>Sam_Moch: AAV J10 .AVA +16 130
>Joshua_Sokol: AHILLNT I10 AL +16 187
#note Finally a position where I can make significant tactical errors! After HOO(E)Y, it is tactically wrong to attempt to close down parts of the board at the expense of not scoring well nor holding relatively well. AL does a really poor job of limiting Sam's options, which remain numerous. and THINL is really not good unless I draw two vowels, or at least one. I spent a while and missed two blatantly superior plays, H(A)LAL and TH(A)LLI to the 2nd A in JAVA. THALLI is great. It only takes a C and Sam doesn't necessarily know that. HALAL has a good leave, but with 5 T's to come, it's not as good as usual. HALAL takes an A and an S, and Sam might not know that either. Both of these plays are superior to mine.
>Sam_Moch: ACIIN H11 ACINI +34 164
#note not to mention this nice hotspot I created, that could have stung more than it did.
>Joshua_Sokol: EHIILNT D2 LE.ITHIN +64 251
#note Another fortuitous draw.
>Sam_Moch: BOSU 14F BO.US +32 196
>Joshua_Sokol: AEEIPSU C7 EAU +16 267
#note It took a while to realize that this seemed like the only play I could make, but an awesome counteroption, that is only the right play if I think Sam is very close to a bingo and might challenge, is D2 (LECITHIN)ASE! I did not know it, but it looks like a fine play as well.
>Sam_Moch: GPY B5 GYP +25 221
>Joshua_Sokol: EEIPQST L3 QIS +30 297
#note Whilst deciding between L3 QIS and F3 Q(I), I wondered how often I drew into a bingo with EEIPST. It seemed likely, but not nearly as likely as I would have liked to make the fish. So I opted for points. The S isn't as strong as usual with no S lanes, and I liked staying ahead by a bingo.
>Sam_Moch: FK 3C K.F +25 246
>Joshua_Sokol: EEMNPTV L9 T.MP +25 322
#note There wasn't much else to play here, unless I wanted to opt for 2-turn board lockdown with 2G M(O)VE for 11. The pool is very potent for bingos at this point and Sam is kind of telegraphing a blank. I'm not sure if that makes it better or worse to score poorly and first block the less likely bingo lane. Sam can also just continue to make openings and constantly leave 2 parts of the board open for a bingo. So I think this is fine, and MOVE would be too risky.
>Sam_Moch: ATX 13L TAX +29 275
#note speaking of risky, Sam didn't hold the A or the I here.
>Joshua_Sokol: EEINSUV O12 VINE +44 366
#note And once again my timing for decent draws is impeccable.
>Sam_Moch: ?DELMOR B9 MOLDiER +77 352
#note And Sam was ready to play this at O9 for 93! sMOLDER is 82, and the best play is 1H (H)yDROMEL! Not sure Sam knew that one, and what a tough find even if he did.
>Joshua_Sokol: EENNSTU 14M NU. +26 392
>Sam_Moch: AT 3L .AT +24 376
>Joshua_Sokol: EENOOST O1 ONSET +31 423
#note I realized that I didn't think enough about this play after I laid it down. It seemed better than NOSE purely based on endgame spread, but I forgot that it allowed Sam to play some bingos he wouldn't have been able to play otherwise, like ESTRONE. Fortunately the increase in his bingo chances isn't that large, and there may be scenarios where I lose in the endgame after NOSE with some sort of disaster draw. Probably not. This is likely a kind of stupid mistake.
>Sam_Moch: DENORST 5B .R.NS +26 402
#note This would normally be a 7-point mistake.
>Joshua_Sokol: BEEGOR 15A G.EBE +33 456
>Sam_Moch: DEOT O1 .....TED +27 429
#note But Sam pulls this out of his sleeve and I convince myself that I don't know enough 8s to justify challenging even though this looked so dumb... Ugh
>Joshua_Sokol: OR 9F RO. +11 467
>Joshua_Sokol: (O) +2 469
#note So instead GRINS ended up being an 11-point mistake, and not challenging ONSETTED, a 35-point mistake.
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