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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Early Mike Early
>Jim_Burlant: ACDOUVW 8F AVOW +20 20
#note I'd prefer to unload the U if I could, as it's the main culprit that causes so many asynergy problems with so many letters. Unfortunately, with this much clunk in the rack, I can't unload it all at once so I'll get rid of as much as I can. This is best.
>Mike_Early: EIMNORS J2 MERINOS +78 78
#note In case you're keeping count, this is the third time in six games an opponent has had an opening rack bingo.
>Jim_Burlant: ?CDTTUV 3G DUV.T +15 35
#note An overdraw really hurt me here, as OTT was turned over and the O was thrown back. Took me a while to sort through the clunk here before finding this, which is best. Really, how many plays are there that can burn me through the U?
>Mike_Early: AEX H1 EA.X +57 135
#note And we have our answer; that's about as worst-case as it can get.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AACEOT G6 Ad.OCATE +64 99
#note My limitation here was that this was all I could find; I never saw OCEANAUT or CAVEATOR. That said, even if I had seen those, this would have been my choice. Why? Besides outscoring OCEANAUT 6F by 3 points, OCEANAUT constricts the board, and I'll be trailing by approximately 55 - 60 assuming Mike comes back with a routine play. The bottom of the board needs to open up, and this does that without giving back ridiculously easy plays at H12 for 50 points, which is why this is superior to CAVEATOR. The sim agrees - this is best. I haven't missed yet, but I'm barely 25% to win.
>Mike_Early: AHOQU 12D QUO.HA +44 179
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: BELNRRU 13I BLUER +27 126
#note A mild slip - Q says BURLER or BURNER in the same place, which score 2 more than this, win roughly 0.5% more often and sim approximately 2-1/2 points better.
>Mike_Early: DEENSU 14B ENSUED +32 211
>Jim_Burlant: DKMNNRR K11 DR.NK +20 146
#note I passed L12 MERK; I felt that, as many points as this gave up, I needed to clear out more of the rack and unload one of those duplicated N's. In Q's eyes this is another mild slip, saying that L12 MERK wins roughly 0.4% more often and is 1-1/2 poiints better. Maybe, maybe not. I'm fine with this.
>Mike_Early: INOP 15H PIN.O +36 247
>Jim_Burlant: CEIMNPR 4D MIRE. +31 177
#note Right idea, wrong execution. I couldn't think of CIMEX in the same location, which scores 35. Again, a mild slip but not a major miss in Q's eyes. 6% to win. CIMEX wins just shy of 7.
>Mike_Early: AGL 3C GAL +14 261
>Jim_Burlant: CENOOPT 5A COOPT +31 208
#note Saw this and looked no further. B2 NETOP is also a strong choice but it kills row 1 and it's too easy for him to take out the A column. This scores identically to NETOP and is the clear winnier in the sim. This is best, but it's still bleak - 10% to win.
>Mike_Early: GIOR A1 ORGI. +27 288
>Jim_Burlant: BEGINSY 12K .YE +24 232
#note I struggled with this turn. The pure fishes like BAY 6 and BOY 9F killed potential Z bombs at 6F. Given my deficit, I wanted to leave that alive, which ruled those plays out. F6 YEA also killed Z bombs and I wanted to make sure I had an S hook no matter what. So I figured I'd sacrifice some equity by opening up the S hook on row 12. Q takes exception to this, and says I should just balance the rack with 13A BYE. Maybe so, but what I didn't like about that play was that it didn't do much to shape the board, and if he does something to muck up the lone S hook, my balanced rack is going to not be worth anything. No matter how you slice it, it's bleak: 13 BYE barely wins 9% and this wins 7-1/4 and sims 6 points down.
>Mike_Early: ASTW N9 TWAS +22 310
>Jim_Burlant: BFGINNS 5I F.NING +20 252
#note FINING takes the S, and this turns more tiles than anything else with the blank still unseen. This is marginally best in a sim, though the reality is that anything is pretty much as good as anything else here. 5.2% to win.
>Mike_Early: AHILT N2 ALI.HT +36 346
>Jim_Burlant: BDEEFJS 6F J.B +28 280
#note Throwing in the towel and simply preventing a 63-point ZoA. The sim still thinks I have a 6% chance of winning when I sim against Z? (which turned out to be in his rack)...but I think that's a smokescreen. Best ostensibly JIBES L6...whatever.
>Mike_Early: ?LTZ B10 ZLoT. +33 379
>Jim_Burlant: DEEFIIS O1 SEIF +46 326
>Mike_Early: AEEIRY 6B YE +28 407
>Jim_Burlant: DEI O8 DIE +19 345
>Jim_Burlant: (AEIR) +8 353
#note Not a whole lot I could do with this.
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