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#player1 Mike_Early Mike Early
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Mike_Early: AEEGLRS 8D GALERES +70 70
>Jim_Burlant: FGGIUWX 7I FUG +22 22
#note Yuck! Q says I should just take the points with F7 FLUX. Sounds good...but in the sad-but-true department, the clunk overload was so severe that I never saw it. In the duck's eyes this is a mild slip; I concur. FLUX wins 22.1% and this wins 0.7% less often and sims roughly 2 points down.
>Mike_Early: EEO D7 O.EE +5 75
>Jim_Burlant: ADGIIWX F5 AXI. +27 49
#note I just saw this, saw that I reduced his lead by 22 points while unloading the X and one of my duplicated I's and stopped looking. Too bad - DEWAX 9C scores 50. That said, I probably come out ahead because of this.
>Mike_Early: AAELNST L7 SEALANT +74 149
>Jim_Burlant: DEGIINW 12F WIDENI.G +65 114
#note Then again, I doubt I'd have bingoed with EGIIIN in my rack, so the last turn came out in the wash. Q says I should play at 12H for 4 more points. In theory I understand that - this way, there are two TW's open and we both get one. OTOH, I don't know if I want to give up the 3x3 given my experience with Mike.
>Mike_Early: AEV H12 .EVA +24 173
>Jim_Burlant: EIOPRUY C3 ROUPY +37 151
#note I finally get one right. C9 YOU is also a reasonable choice. The sim also likes E1 ROUPY since that doesn't give back the front C hook.
>Mike_Early: HOO E4 OHO +31 204
>Jim_Burlant: CEHILNW C9 WHILE +44 195
#note WHINE in the same location scores identically, but this leaves a better combination and doesn't give back the easy D and R back hooks. This is best. Still in the hole at 33% to win.
>Mike_Early: ABEINTU 10F UNITAB.E +64 268
>Mike_Early: ABEINTU -- -64 204
>Jim_Burlant: ABEINQT 11E QAT +31 226
#note That was the break I needed. QAT plays all over the place, and the G3, B8, and B2 placements score 28; this scores 31. 'Nuff said. 51% to win. Back in the game.
>Mike_Early: ABEINTU 6J BA +24 228
#note Q says Mike should just dump his rack with 5E HABITUE or play B11 TABUE.
>Jim_Burlant: BCIKNOV 5K BOINK +34 260
#note I wasn't sure of the C hook on ROUPY, which eliminated 2A BOCK. Why not BOCK instead of this? This kept the C for 5's ending in CK and didn't give him the easy S hook; with Mike being my opponent, I thought for sure he'd have the S. Q says 2A BOCK was the clear winner (no argument here) and says that if I wanted to play at 5K, BOCK was the choice. 49% to win.
>Mike_Early: ENU O5 .UNE +24 252
>Jim_Burlant: CDORRSV M1 CORV.D +24 284
#note Not a whole lot to choose from. This turned the rack, kept RS, and kept the board alive so a row 15 bingo didn't end the game. Q agrees - this is best. 61% to win.
>Mike_Early: CEIMNTU 15D NEUM.TIC +63 315
#note Nice find! This is Mike's only bingo. He wins 58%, but not for long.
>Jim_Burlant: ADINRST 2G INTRAD.S +72 356
#note This scores identically to DIATRONS 2H, but INTRADOS makes it a little harder for him to overlap at 1H than DIATRONS would have, which is why I chose it. The sim agrees with me emphatically. This wins 66%; DIATRONS wins 7% less often and sims 9 points down.
>Mike_Early: JLOZ 1M .OZ +44 359
#note After the game, Mike told me his rack. I don't remember it all, but he also had the J and this was his only vowel. He spent a while here as he didn't have a play at 1H. This is clearly his best play but it's bleak for him: he's 19% to win and my next rack reduces that to 0.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EFILMS 1A FILMErS +94 450
#note 1B MISFILE would have been MUCH better, as there would be no possibility for Mike to hit FeTERITA down the A column for the loss. Thuis wins 3% less often and sims 3 points down. 87% to win.
>Mike_Early: JOT 12A JO.T +38 397
>Jim_Burlant: ?AIPRT A12 .APe +36 486
#note 10 PHILTRA (blank L) wins by 9 more.
>Mike_Early: DERY 10I RED.Y +11 408
>Mike_Early: (IRT) +6 414
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