| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Noah Noah
#player2 Tunnicliffe Tunnicliffe
>Noah: ADEEGOV 8G VEG +14 14
#note This play is quite interesting. I also considered VOE/GAVE 8G and DEAVE 8D. I didn't like DEAVE and GAVE because I really wanted a closed board against Matt. Against some players I would definitely choose the more open play. What surprises me is that VEG even wins a sim -- albeit narrowly. It reduces opp avg. score by 7 over VOE and 12 over DEAVE.
>Tunnicliffe: LOO 9H LOO +10 10
>Noah: ACDEEOT 10H DOE +18 32
#note There are a few reasonable options I didn't consider here. ODE 10I, which I did think of, seems out of the question, but tacking on the A for ODEA or playing smaller with OE are good options. DOE keeps a pesky ELDS hook open but I think I still like it over ODEA -- ODEA just allows a pretty open board for a while anyway and it also looks like it increases Matt's average score by a lot (Quackle confirms this: about a 16 point difference between what ODEA gives back and what OE/DOE does, which fact makes them better plays all by itself.), especially with row 11 plays, which often give little back to me. I think my pick here is OE -- ACET is not as good post-DOE as I'm unlikely to hit a bingo with it here, while GOO keeps a D hook. It also actually looks more defensive, as the ELDS hook can just hang out there forever. Quackle doesn't back this bingo percentage number up -- it actually likes DOE a lot more because it's bingo% is supposedly equivalent to OE, which is probably because Speedy Player opens out a lot hooking DOE and LOO. I think these openings are pretty reasonable most of the time, so maybe it really is better to play DOE. Unsure.
>Tunnicliffe: INOR K8 INRO +17 27
>Noah: ACEENRT L2 REENACT +73 105
>Tunnicliffe: AESUZ 2I AZU.ES +70 97
>Noah: ADEKPUW 1F WAUK +39 144
>Tunnicliffe: IIIIII -IIIIII +0 97
>Noah: ?ADEPSU 2A UPDAtES +81 225
#note Tough play. I considered UPDAtES 2A and UPDAtES 3C, along with APED 3J, EASED 3I and PA 1L. Ultimately didn't see a reason to do the non-bingos -- playing a bingo takes up more space quicker to defend and I already have a big lead. I don't know why I was so aggressive here. The other UPDAtES blocks more right now and let's me play down from the P to weaken the NA lanes and ultimately the ELDS hook at the bottom, something that my UPDAtES doesn't do nearly as effectively. I think I was being too Quackly here and just thinking about the scoring spot my UPDAtES gave away -- this seems a lot more long-term defensive.
>Tunnicliffe: IPQ A1 Q.IP +54 151
>Noah: ACGLNRS 4G CLANG.RS +62 287
>Tunnicliffe: HOY 1M HOY +34 185
>Noah: ?EEITTU 5A UTE +19 306
#note Missed QUIT. I'm not sure which I like better.
>Tunnicliffe: ADEHNRS 11B HARDENS +77 262
>Noah: ?DEEITY K4 .EY +23 329
>Tunnicliffe: IJL D1 J.IL +38 300
>Noah: ?DEIOTW D8 WOr.ITED +84 413
#note Tough play. I thought about both WITHERODs as well as OW 10E. WIDE 12A is also an interesting option. I think I prefer WIThEROD to WITHErOD, as it doesn't open that huge scoring possibility and isn't easy to bingo through. Matt probably needs two bingos or a bingo plus some big scores to win. I don't see a strong reason to pass up a bingo with OW here -- bingos score too well and their score isn't going to improve. My play makes two bingos for Matt very possible, but two bingos may not even be enough to win, especially given the lanes open, though a triple-triple with good backup could work. I'm not sure between WIThEROD and WOrRITED. The difference in win percentage is probably pretty small so maybe just go for spread with WOrRITED? My spread isn't very good but it's still worth something.
>Tunnicliffe: AEINOX 15D .IOXANE +45 345
>Noah: AAFORRT 14I AFAR +30 443
>Tunnicliffe: FIV 14A FIV. +20 365
>Noah: BINORTT 8A BRO.N +30 473
>Tunnicliffe: GIILMMT 13F GLIM +19 384
>Noah: BEITT 10D .IB +23 496
>Tunnicliffe: IMT 11K .MIT +6 390
>Tunnicliffe: (ETT) +6 396
|
