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#player1 Noah_Walton Noah Walton
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Noah_Walton: ?FILOTT H7 OuTLIFT +76 76
#note Round 21. Context: after a sluggish 1-1/2 - 4 start, I had gone on an 11-3 run and made the mistake of checking the standings. Discovering I was in 13th place, and knowing that a win over Noah would catapult me into the top 10 for a day 4 showdown with all the big names, for the first time this tournament I really felt the pressure. Now, to this point, I'd made the expected assortment of human errors - choosing the wrong fork in the road, board vision failures, suboptimal play, and some coulda/woulda/shoulda moments I'd want to take back - that cost me a couple of wins along the way, but those were more or less within the realm of normal trying-your-best-but-you're-still-human errors. Let's just get this out into the open: I train wrecked this one from the word go.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEJMT G5 TAJ +35 35
#note Mistake #1. I held this, (which he had slapped down in a split second before I'd even finished drawing tiles)...but, knowing that his word knowledge is almost as far beyond mine as mine is beyond a kitchen player, I chickened out on challenging. OUTLIFT* is phony. His best legitimate play is somethinlg like TOFT or LIFT for cheap. As for this: this is best. A cool play I never saw because I was preoccupied with unloading the J was 11E MEDIATE.
>Noah_Walton: BEHMRUW I4 BREW +30 106
>Jim_Burlant: CDEELMO H7 .......ED +36 71
>Jim_Burlant: CDEELMO -- -36 35
#note Mistake #2. When he called, "HOLD", I had a sinking feeling and realized I'd been had. My best legitimate play is J5 EM, which wins 23%. Wasting a turn for 0 points wins 12.
>Noah_Walton: AAFHMRU 10B HARMFU. +31 137
>Jim_Burlant: CDEELMO C9 C.MEL +24 59
#note At this point, I do a virtual face palm, because I think he's just blocked my DOMECILE bingo which I didn't see on the previous turn. Actually, the reason I didn't see it is that DOMECILE* is phony and the word is spelled DOMICILE. As for this - I was tempted to try CHARMFUL but didn't dare taking a chance on losing a third turn. This is about the only smart decision I've made to this point since HARMFUL doesn't take the front C. This was another weak play - 11C DEME scores 36 and is much beter than this. I've frittered my winning chances down to 10%.
>Noah_Walton: AIIINSS H1 INIA +20 157
>Jim_Burlant: ACDEOOU -OOU +0 59
#note By this point I'm totally reeling. I know I've let a phony go and lost a turn and adding insult to injury I incorrectly think I whiffed on a bingo I should have found. On top of that, the AOU draw just freaked me. If I were calm at the time, this rack would have been totally playable. CAMEO 11A scores 33 and J2 COOED scores 32. There is absolutely no reason for me to exchange here. I've done everything in my power to throw this game away to this point, but watch what happens:
>Noah_Walton: EIIRSSV E5 VERIS.S +48 205
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACDENN 1H .NCANtED +83 142
#note I finally get a play right! Back from 2% winning chances to 11.
>Noah_Walton: GIIOORZ 2F ZI. +32 237
>Jim_Burlant: ADEENPT 13F PA.ENTED +76 218
#note Or PATTENED. Back to 26%.
>Noah_Walton: GGIOOOR L9 GOOI.R +14 251
>Jim_Burlant: EIINOOX 2M OXO +42 260
#note I took a looong time here. The first thing I saw was the obvious EX J5. But, even though neither the pool nor board are especially bingo prone, I though the IINOO leave was too likely to force an exchange on the next turn. So, after a while, I figured I'd trade points (I'm still scoring 42 with this) for an increased likelihood of being able to play through. Q says I should take the points because ION scores 22 at D9 on the next turn...but it was a while before I saw that spot. That said, this is also a very good choice and it doesn't sim very far behind EX. 37% to win.
>Noah_Walton: AGHOUUY 5I .OUGHY +26 277
#note Hm, didn't think of HOAGY K7. UU is not very good here but points sure are! I think I play HOAGY.
>Jim_Burlant: DEIINPW 3K PEW +26 286
#note A strong choice, but not best. D9 IRID unloads the I's, scores identically, and keeps the W. While the W is normally one of the first tiles to look at unloading from this rack, this board is not bingo prone and the W will score in multiple places on the next turn. This is the bronze medalilst - IRID wins 41%, this wins 39 and sims 2 pionts down.
>Noah_Walton: ABINOUV 3C VINA +25 302
>Jim_Burlant: DEEIILN J7 LIED +23 309
#note Still not seeing D9 plays yet, but this is as good as IRID. 39% to win.
>Noah_Walton: ABEORRU K9 RUB +26 328
#note RUBATO is really tempting, but I think I'm much stronger at the pre-endgame than Jim, so I felt this would be better -- he gets a lot of easy wins from (RUBATO)S.
>Jim_Burlant: AEINOUY 2E A...E +18 327
#note This was a very hard turn. The two plays I saw were B10 HONEY 30 and this. HONEY's 30 points are sorely needed here, but if he has the Q, the AIU leave dooms me and he may still have QAID for 48. And if I landed the Q, I was concerned he'd block D1 and I'd be forced to play for 21 and still be stuck with AIU in my rack. Championship Player's evaluation is that I needed to take the points with HONEY and gamble that he doesn't have AQD in his rack. That wins 42%; this is my highest valuation play (and it didn't even show on Quackle's radar screen as one of the original choices) but only wins 33. Amazingly, despite all my early blunders, this is the choice that may have lost me the game.
>Noah_Walton: AEGOQRT 1C QAT +16 344
#note Not playing off the Q gives me more trouble later, so I'm pretty sure I just need to ditch it now. 14F QAT is tempting because of two scoring spots but the one I opened is so huge. QI is also available but blocking this scoring spot seemed important, partially to complexify. QAT 14E might be better, as if I can fade the really huge plays (YELK, LINED, etc.), I come out really well, and I can beat those sometimes too. Not sure!
>Jim_Burlant: DILNOUY D9 I.ON +22 349
#note I probably need to unloadi the U on this turn. LOUD D12 may be a bit better.
>Noah_Walton: EEGKORT B12 GEEK +24 368
#note Not enough time left. This loses 7/8 endgames to perfect play and most of them are easy. I just wasn't able to calculate enough here because I had so little time, and intuition told me GEEK was the way to go. KEG is a better play, and appears best.
>Jim_Burlant: ADLSSUY M7 LASSY +29 378
>Jim_Burlant: ADLSSUY -- -29 349
#note The anagram of the word I thought of was LYSSA. This was a fitting last turn for what I turned into a train wreck of a game. The consolation: I don't have a win. SKALDS was my best play and lost by two. Had I pulled this game out, it would have been a travesty.
>Noah_Walton: EORT C3 .OTER +9 377
>Noah_Walton: (ADLSSUY) +22 399
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