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#player1 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Chris_Cree: IMNNY 8D MINNY +26 26
>Jim_Burlant: EFGHSSV E7 F.VES +22 22
#note Not much else to do with this. GIVES E7 (next best option) not only keeps the F, but scores 4 less and gives up the easy front O hook. And HIVES, which sets up my other S, leaves the F. This is clearly best.
>Chris_Cree: ?IKNORS 10E .InKORNS +65 91
>Jim_Burlant: GGHOSUY L8 GU.HY +28 50
#note While this is best, the sim says it's not as cut and dried as I thought this would have been. 9H UH, J10 ROUGH, and L10 SOGGY are also very strong choices. I just saw 28 points while unloading the GUY combination and that was enough for me.
>Chris_Cree: LOW 8L .LOW +24 115
>Jim_Burlant: AFGLOOS K4 LOOFA +25 75
#note I looked for extensions from the K and missed the one word that played. If you whiff like I did, the rest of your options are reasonable but not great. Within the limitations of what I did see, this outscored everything except D11 ALOOF while taking out the easy GLOW front hook and not slotting the 3x3 like ALOOF (granted, the F is not particularly volatile, but it's still a threat). And, this opens the northeast so things can't shut down right away. The sim confirms what I realized when I saw the kibbitzer options: KLOOFS H10, which scores 42, is clearly best and that my choice is about as good as it otherwise gets if you miss KLOOFS. But KLOOFS definitely should have been the play.
>Chris_Cree: ATX L3 TAX +33 148
>Jim_Burlant: BCEGHST I9 B.TCH +19 94
#note I struggled with this turn. My initial inclination was to fish with BOG I9 to preserve the .44 caliber CEHST leave. But on this board, what good is it if he obstructs the N column as I expect and I don't draw AL (CHASTELY), IL (CHESTILY), or RT (STRETCHY)? This more or less guarantees he's going to open to H15 and if he didn't have the Z, this would reduce the H15 threat to routine 23-point plays (e.g.: AVA, AWE, etc.) instead of a bunch of K extensions for at least 33 points. I was getting tired of looking at the G, but I felt that tile turnover and board position trumped leave considerations. The duck hates this and predictably says I9 BOG and K12 BEG are best...but I'm not buying it.
>Chris_Cree: IQ M2 QI +26 174
>Jim_Burlant: AEGISTU N6 AG.UTIES +63 157
#note How sad is it that I never even recognized the no-go 7 in this rack and that it took me a couple of minutes to find this? Anyway - this is my only bingo, but I'm still an underdog. The duck says I'm still barely 28% to win.
>Chris_Cree: ACLO O12 LOCA +26 200
>Jim_Burlant: BDEIRTV O1 VERBID +48 205
#note Next best option is N1 VIED for 41. This is clearly best. Up to 42% to win.
>Chris_Cree: ORU H13 OUR +14 214
>Jim_Burlant: AADEIJT 14F JE. +26 231
#note Do I fish the J at 6J? Or block bingoes on row 15? I'd normally want to keep the E and unload an A, but the bag is 2/3 empty and 8 E's are still unseen, so my E is expendable. Quackle agrees that JO is bad, and that this was a very strong choice (runner up, 0.7 points and 0.4% behind the sim winner). The sim winner is a play I never saw, TAFIA 7C. I see why Q likes it, but I'm not convinced it's best. TAFIA cleans the rack and guarantees a J dump on the next turn. And I have the D for D(JIN) after that. The danger with TAFIA is that it completely kills bingoes in the northern half of the board. If he hits on row 15, the game will almost certainly be over if he draws one of the two remaining D's assuming I open the board with JIN. By shutting off row 15 now, if he does hit to the N's or Y (much tougher to hit those than the open R at H15), he will open all sorts of comeback possibilities and I'll at least have some chance. I'd make this play again.
>Chris_Cree: AAZ F5 AZA. +38 252
>Jim_Burlant: AADEEIT G3 IDEA +19 250
#note Or K10 NEAT. This gets the marginal nod in a sim, but the difference is splitting hairs. For all intents and purposes, either is as good as the other. 31% to win.
>Chris_Cree: ENW E3 NEW +24 276
>Jim_Burlant: AEELPRT H1 PATE +27 277
#note This was where I lost the game. I briefly looked at short plays at D2 (eg.: APT) but didn't like the leave (EELR with EEEE unseen) or board position (H1 still open). The J column didn't register as a threat and I was too worried about H1; hence, this. Quackle likes D1 plays that look reckless (LEAPT/PLEAT) given the unseen pool. Close to the top of a sim are two plays I never saw that look best: D2 LEPTA and LEAPT J2, which score 31 and 30 to this play's 27. This doesn't even concede 4 equity to LEAPT/LEPTA but it wins nearly 5% less often. If I had this one to do again, LEAPT J2 for 30 looks best to me. While it only scores 30 to LEPTA's 31, LEPTA looks like it could lead to his setting up something down the B column I can't block while LEAPT J2 gives nothing back.
>Chris_Cree: ST H6 ST. +18 294
>Jim_Burlant: EEGLMRR D2 REM +20 297
#note Statically this does terribly...but the rest of my options are a bunch of 4A plays (e.g.: GREENLIT, MERGE, MERLE) that are just begging him to bingo with the blank through the wide open E's they float. This enables me to recover from my last play; if he's going to bingo, he needs to overlap 3 tiles down the C column and he doesn't have the easy run for ATROPINE, etc. on row 1. This is best. 33% to win.
>Chris_Cree: INNRU D11 INURN +14 308
>Jim_Burlant: ADEGILR 15A GRI.D +21 318
#note I wanted to take away easy scoring. I saw several 7's, but only one specific combo that would yield an 8 to the R. If he's got an 8 to the R, that's life. This doesn't cross Q's radar screen, and the duck thinks I should play for cheap with GA(EN) 3B...but this wins a sim just as often as GAEN, which wins the sim. 39% to win against a random rack...and against his next rack I don't have a win.
>Chris_Cree: ?DEEIOT C1 DOTE +23 331
>Jim_Burlant: AEELOP M5 OPA. +27 345
#note And if I'd floated the G per Quackle, he'd have bingoed out with (G)EODETIc. Quackle confirms what Chris and I suspected when we post-mortemed: I don't have a win. This is one of 4 plays (the others being K10 NEAP, J2 PEAL, and K2 LEAP) that loses by 1. I chose this for the style points. :-)
>Chris_Cree: ?EI B4 hIE +9 340
#note Chris has 5 winning plays; this is one, the others are fIE, dIE, sEI at B4 and J13 sEI. Congrats to Chris on a hard-earned win.
>Chris_Cree: (EEL) +6 346
#note While missing KLOOFS was not ideal, a case can be made that I may have come out ahead 4 turns later despite (because of?) that mistake. The play that lost the game for me was PATE for 27 instead of LEAPT for 30. Best that I can tell, everything else from that point forward probably plays out the same given the unseen pool, and the three points missed there cost me the game. Sometimes the margin between victory and loss is razor thin.
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