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#player1 Rafi_Stern Rafi Stern
#player2 Noah Noah
>Rafi_Stern: AADNQUW 8F QUAD +28 28
#note Another game against Rafi, from 12-19-14.
>Noah: DIIJNOV 9E JIN +25 25
#note Setting up the D seemed reasonable, with one already played.
>Rafi_Stern: AAGNPWY 7G PYA +29 57
>Noah: ADIIOVX D5 AVOID +22 47
#note This is quite a weak setup but I really didn't like the X after DIVA, nor did I like the extra vowel. It seemed like even after a likely block (whether or not Rafi thinks it's a setup, which it isn't necessarily as I could have AI or something though I'd probably have played it more quickly -- I took 3 minutes or so on this play, but anyway even if he doesn't think it's a setup col E is a good spot to take) it seemed like the X would often still have potential.
>Rafi_Stern: ADGNOWW E3 WOW +28 85
>Noah: EIIOUXY E9 .EU +20 67
#note Looked like I would average more over the two turns with this than with JEUX, since IIOY is so bad, plus JEU sets up much less for Rafi to do. I also considered YOWIE but IUX seemed like it would end up in a lot of bad situations -- a lot of times I have to do JEUX or JINX next turn which isn't great.
>Rafi_Stern: ADFGMNN H7 ..NG +21 106
>Noah: AEIIOXY 12D IXIA +40 107
>Rafi_Stern: ADFGMN 13F FANG +19 125
#note Forget the last tile here.
>Noah: ELLMORY I6 L..Y +33 140
#note At first only saw LO(W)LY MOREL LE(AD)Y and some weaker plays. Finally noticed I could just do L(AD)Y which seemed clear.
>Rafi_Stern: DEHMRST C7 HM +24 149
>Noah: ?EELMOR 3B EEL.ORMs +76 216
>Rafi_Stern: DDEIRST H1 TI.ED +27 176
>Noah: BEILLST F2 B.IL +20 236
#note Wanted QUAD to be QUOD here!!
>Rafi_Stern: ADERSVZ B8 ADZ +38 214
>Noah: ?AEELST 1H .ESTAbLE +74 310
#note Thought of TELEcAST and ABOIL but didn't realize they went together here :/. This is a colossal mistake -- not only did I miss 7 points, TELEcAS(T) really closes the board.
>Rafi_Stern: BEERSTV A5 VEER +39 253
>Noah: EKNOOST 14B KOTOS +30 340
#note Thought about keeping the S and playing (L)OOK or (b)OOK. It seems like I want to keep scoring, taking lower variance plays.
>Rafi_Stern: ABHNSTT 15A BAH +35 288
>Noah: EENOORT 13A EON +25 365
#note Thought about TENOUR but it's pretty bad. Debated NOO and EON and decided on this because I can draw more TENOUR type plays next turn which would seem to help my score out. Quackle thinks they're basically the same.
>Rafi_Stern: EFNSTTU 11A FET +20 308
#note Maybe F(E)T, but it might not score enough.
>Noah: CCEORRT 2A COR +16 381
#note COR, R(E)C, CORE and (L)ECTOR are all options here. I had to rush a bit during the game, but it seems like I can make some good inferences about Rafi's rack. First, Rafi hasn't bingoed the whole game, and probably has an S. Otherwise, plays before FET don't give that much info away -- sure he didn't have IN with VEER for example but enough draws have happened to mostly delete that info. Rafi took a while on FET and played it tentatively. Any really clunky combination is unlikely, but so is a really good one -- with EIST he plays it with less hesitation, with EIRS or EINS he doesn't play it at all. So middling bingo tiles with an S. Keeping the E seems very helpful here, as it gives me flexibility for bingos and endgames, and since COR leaves 7 in the bag, being able to go out in two could be important. COR is probably the best of plays that just try to outrun. LECTOR, on the other hand, is a bit less likely to outrun, but also makes it harder for him to bingo, both by playing more tiles and blocking lanes -- yes it opens two, but col M is pretty weak, almost not even a lane for Rafi because it scores so poorly. LECTOR actually doesn't reduce bingo chances that much, according to a sim. It makes sense that bingos don't get less threatening after LECTOR -- column O is scarier and easier to hit, while column M and N would often be outscored by COR anyway. LECTOR still gives Rafi ample chance to try for a bingo too, while if Rafi fishes after COR I have more options for how many tiles to play. COR does look best here.
>Rafi_Stern: INNPSTU H12 S.IP +34 342
#note Other options are SPUN 11H, PUNS J10, and LUPIN/LUPINS N1. LUPINS seems better than LUPIN because it's harder for me to score off of and because I have to play off one tile instead of two to leave one in the bag. PUNS seems better than SPUN because the N allows me to bingo significantly more often, crushing Rafi's chances. LUPINS seems better than PUNS because it is a lot harder for me to block a bunch down. Finally, LUPINS seems better than SNIP, because it is just so hard to hit a bingo with NNTU, especially with a strong pool. LUPINS still scores enough to allow Rafi to win with a bingo.
>Noah: CEORSTU J10 CRUSET +25 406
#note Unfortunately I don't think I have much info about Rafi's rack. He might even have had a bingo rack, as bingos are still often losers for him, so he might decide on SNIP instead. There are a lot of possibilities here. First let's compare plays that block the P. Plays to compare here are SOU, CRUSET, PUT and UP. CRUSET and SOU look very similar, as I lose almost endgames after SOU + bingo, winning the rare one where I draw a bingo, but allows him to fish. I haven't found a fish that wins for Rafi yet though, so SOU looks better. I can't find any good options that block the P -- (T)ORC doesn't block much better than CRUSET and (A)RC leaves me open to two tile fishes through the C. If I'm not blocking, I need to be fishing, but UP/PUT already fish so well while blocking that there aren't really other fishes to consider. It's between SOU, PUT, and UP and right now I just don't have the mental facility to figure out which is best.
>Rafi_Stern: AGINNTU K1 .AUNTING +68 410
>Rafi_Stern: (EIORR) +10 420
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