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#player1 Joe_Edley Joe Edley
#player2 dacrON dacrON
>Joe_Edley: CGO 8G COG +12 12
#note In an exciting twist, this game features commentary by Noah.
>dacrON: AEGHKLN G6 HA.K +19 19
#note Somewhat surprisingly, HECK is significantly better -- only the C can hook it, whereas the S and T both hook HACK, and AGLN is actually a stronger leave than EGLN.
>Joe_Edley: ADEEIT H1 IDEATE +29 41
>dacrON: AADEGLN 2H .ANGLED +24 43
#note There are a lot of options here. Conrad can play short, keeping a powerful leave like ANGLE or LEAD, or he can play off ADEGLN somewhere. Of the plays keeping ANGLE, AHED looks the strongest, as it sets up the A(AHED) hook with only 5 As out, giving Conrad some great 2x2 potential. AHED also keeps a lot of lines open -- AEGLN meshes well with the ID in particular. For these reasons, AHED seems stronger than GAN as well. Of the words playing off DANGLE, GLEANED or ANGELED seems best, because they don't give the easy triple word score back for scoring like DANGLED plays do. Between AHED and ANGELED it is tough. I would do AHED because AEGLN just seems so strong here. On a sim, the two plays are pretty close. Many plays are decent here.
>Joe_Edley: EILSTT 5E TIT.LES +42 83
>dacrON: AFILOVY 1M FOY +35 78
>Joe_Edley: ?EEIOST 10D cOESITE +75 158
>dacrON: AIILORV 4A VOILA +26 104
>Joe_Edley: CHMP B2 CH.MP +40 198
>dacrON: ?AIORTZ 3M ZA +56 160
#note IZAR is also playable, but this does much better given Conrad's blank and deficit, allowing him to hit huge bingos on column O a lot of the time.
>Joe_Edley: ABNRU A6 URBAN +25 223
>dacrON: ?AIOPRT O3 PAROTIc +91 251
#note There's the bingo! I would prefer PATRIOt so as not to give back the big JWY spot in a game which is now pretty much even (Conrad up 30 on Joe's turn).
>Joe_Edley: JTU N6 JUT +55 278
>dacrON: AIMNNRW 3G N.W +20 271
>Joe_Edley: BOO 4J BOO +16 294
>dacrON: AGIMNRS B9 MARGINS +82 353
>Joe_Edley: EY 6J YE +32 326
>dacrON: ANOQRSX 11I AXON +33 386
#note An interesting pre-endgame position. The main things Conrad has to worry about are Joe bingoing and Q trouble. If Joe doesn't bingo, Conrad seems to be able to win easily enough -- AQSX on his rack gives him a lot of scoring power. It seems like the main goals to worry about, then, are A) Blocking bingos and B) Outrunning bingos. It seems like Conrad wants to play off the Q or the X turn -- there isn't a lot of value in keeping both of them. For Q plays, he has Q(AT)/Q(I), (T)RANQ, and Q(I)S. For X plays, AXON/AXONS 11I and IXORAS H10 seem like the main options. QI 13A seems better than QAT -- 1 point is unlikely to matter very often, while blocking bingos through the IN definitely is, though QI does increase the power of some bingos, like INFERRED and INNERVED. QIS seems better than QI, as it blocks a few more bingos and scores 13 for the S, while still keeping AXON. The main reason to play QI is to hold IXORAS or just IXORA, setting up the S later on. However, the most dangerous of Joe's bingos after QI (INNERVED, SILVERED, FIDDLER) block the IXORA setup. AXON sets up the AXONE hook for Joe to bingo or fish with but allows Conrad to draw QIS for more points on column M if Joe doesn't play there. IXORAS seems weaker than AXON -- it scores more points, but this is balanced by the better potential of AXON (SUQ or QIS) and the fact that IXORAS opens some good bingo lanes for Joe to hit. QIS seems better than AXONS, as it keeps AXON in reserve, while also keeping the X in general, which seems to have better scoring potential than the Q. QIS also blocks bingo lanes, ditches the Q, and keeps QUA potential. The main advantage of AXONS is its timing, as a bingo after AXONS leaves Joe with 7 tiles but Conrad first to act. The problem is that Conrad has the Q, making it seem more likely that Joe would go out in two. Thus I think QIS is better than AXONS. I also think it is better than AXON -- sure AXON sets up the SUQ/QIS spot, but again it seems like QIS keeps reasonable potential for the X just like AXON does for the Q, while defending better against bingos. Between TRANQ and QIS, I am not sure. The main bad situations Conrad can get in after TRANQ are bad draws (those with no Es, usually) and bingos through the Q. After QIS, the main danger is some bingo from the S by Joe. Joe's rack is likely pretty good after plays like BOO and YE, and he probably has 1-3 Es (though 3 is unlikely). It's hard for me to figure out which play is better at this point -- both TRANQ and QIS often win even if Joe gets a bingo down. I may have also made a mistake earlier in the analysis. This is definitely a tough position.
>Joe_Edley: DEEINRV 14A I.NERVED +70 396
>dacrON: DEFQRRS 15G FED +35 421
#note FED 13G, setting up the S, may be a better play, but this is still winning.
>Joe_Edley: EEIIUUW 11I ....E +12 408
#note Best is WIENIE.
>dacrON: LQRRS 13A Q. +22 443
#note Best is REF, blocking WIDE.
>Joe_Edley: EIIUUW 12K WE +19 427
#note WIDE is best.
>dacrON: LRRS 10D .......S +13 456
>Joe_Edley: IIUU 9A ..U +6 433
>dacrON: LRR J9 R.. +10 466
#note Best is OR, blocking OI.
>Joe_Edley: IIU E10 .I +4 437
>dacrON: LR G13 R.. +7 473
>Joe_Edley: IU I10 ..U +3 440
>dacrON: L E10 ..L +3 476
>dacrON: (I) +2 478
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