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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Richard_Spence Richard Spence
>Jim_Burlant: ACDIORT 8D CAROTID +76 76
>Richard_Spence: ILNOQUU 7I QI +45 45
#note I'm pretty dissatisfied with this play because of the leave. QUINOA is a bit better.
>Jim_Burlant: GIIKNPX 9G XI +36 112
#note Couldn't decide which was right - this or KIP 6J. My thinking here was that, if I drew an A, E, or I, I was guaranteed some sort of K play (either PECKING/PICKING/PACKING D6, or KIP 6J. Quackle says I got the order wrong and that I needed to play 6J KIP this turn and hold the X. Both plays are strong; KIP wins just shy of 74%, and this wins .9% less often and sims 2.4 points down.
>Richard_Spence: CLNOSUU 10D UNCO +22 67
>Jim_Burlant: GIIKNPT 6J KIP +37 149
#note Well, that worked out nicely. This scores very well and leaves a promising GINT. Other plays like KING/KITING etc. blow apart too much of the rack for nowhere near enough gain. This is best.
>Richard_Spence: ALOSSUW M2 WAULS +26 93
>Jim_Burlant: EGILNOT N1 LOG +21 170
#note No bingoes play. Q agrees that this is a strong choice but it's not quite best in the duck's eyes. Apparently I'm just supposed to fish the O with E10 NO. I realized this would probably give back points, but I felt this came down to trading 21 for 35 as opposed to trading 4 for 25 on row 12. The duck says NO E10 is best, winning just shy of 80%. TOE N1 18 wins 1% less often and sims 2.2 points down on NO, and this play wins 0.4% less often than TOE and is 0.2 points behind TOE. Pick your poison.
>Richard_Spence: EFIOSSW O1 OWE +37 130
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEINT F1 DETAINE. +63 233
#note Only bingo. 86.4% to win in a short sim.
>Richard_Spence: BFIRSSZ E2 FIBS +33 163
#note Not sure why I didn't play FRITZ.
>Jim_Burlant: AABDEEN 1F .AB +18 251
#note I knew Quackle wouldn't like this a whole lot and that it would want me to play at C10 with something like BAAED. I was more concerned about taking easy scoring away, and I was getting too protective of my E's. A better play probably would have been DEANED (wasn't sure about it) and I never thought of DEANED's anagram, DEADEN. If I had this turn to do again, I'd probably play DEADEN or DEANED. Besides giving up a handful of scoreboard points, I've made this game a race to who can draw the J to play at C10 because I've played off my B and can no longer play at C10, which is why this play is a 9 point dog in the sim and it wins 3-1/2% less often than DEANED or DEADEN. That said, I'm still in pretty good shape at 85.7%. DEANED/DEADEN win just over 89%. The sim winner, which I don't like, is BANED C10, because it gives him a lifeline by opening the southwest quadrant.
>Richard_Spence: LNORSYY 2E ..LONY +26 189
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEMNU 5K MU.ED +28 279
#note To play the D or not to play the D? The problem I had with MULE was the unseen DSS??. Q says there are 3 plays that stand out at the top of the sim and they all sim within 1.3 points and 0.28% winning chances of each other: MULE 5K, this, and 3C UNITED. In retrospect, I wish I'd seen UNITED. 88.4% to win.
>Richard_Spence: ANORSTZ D3 ZA +44 233
>Jim_Burlant: ADEELNV O5 .AVEN +27 306
#note I initially put down DAVENED for 36 but didn't like it, as it gave back too many potential plays like FORTY/HENRY/etc. at N10. So I rationalized this choice (which is decent, but not correct) by thinking that, if he didn't have a bingo and/or an S, he wasn't going to score. Then again, given his next rack, it really didn't matter what I put down here. The word I never thought of was the common DELVED, which is what should have been the play.
>Richard_Spence: AENORST 10I ATONERS +71 304
>Jim_Burlant: DEJLMNS 11K MED +25 331
#note Statically, this isn't even a top-1o choice, but it doesn't take long to make its way towards the top of the sim. While K8 SLOJD (which I never saw) is my best play, the sim indicates this is a good choice. He can't do anything on row 12 if he doesn't have a blank, and I have the J for C10 hooks and the case S to back hook OM. Additionally, I've put myself in a position where the right draw could see me cashing the J for 50+ on the next turn, which, given this board, probably clinches the game.
>Richard_Spence: EIRTTUY E8 .U.TY +16 320
>Jim_Burlant: AFHJLNS L8 JA..S +40 371
#note Best. 72% to win. Other options worth consideration per the duck are 12M HAJ and 12C FLY.
>Richard_Spence: EEIOORT 3H OE +11 331
#note Starting to draw pretty poorly. I probably should've played more aggressively with (C)OOTIE, but it probably wouldn't have worked.
>Jim_Burlant: AEFHLNR 12C FL. +18 389
#note I knew Quackle would want me to play longer here, but as far as I'm concerned, less is more. This puts Richard down 58 points and renders the board completely dead. Q prefers 12C FLYER and 12B FLAYER because it likes a few more scoreboard points and turns more tiles with both the blanks unseen. I don't need the blanks, and the problem I have with both of those choices is that I could see those plays lead to a sequence where he'd play on row 13 and open up lines on row 14 that I might not be able to defend. Q also likes FERLY 12A better than this, and with both blanks still (!) unseen, floating him the E (not to mention putting the F in the triple) is just insane. I'm fine with this, even if the duck thinks it wins 7 percent less often than FLYER and coughs up ridiculous amounts of equity.
>Richard_Spence: EGIIORT 9L .GO. +16 347
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGHNR 8L .AN. +20 409
#note Darn - I was hoping he'd open up a row 14 possibilities by playing something at 13B. Instead I have a nogo. As far as I'm concerned I'll just outrun him. Surprisingly, Q agrees with me on this turn. The sim is conflicted; this wins most often (97%), but concedes nearly 7 points of valuation to 4H RE, which wins 0.1% less often. I'm fine with this.
>Richard_Spence: EIIRRRT 12C ...TIER +14 361
#note I was hoping he would blunder and give me TIRRIVEE or RETIARII, but of course, it wouldn't happen.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEGHRV H11 V.G +7 416
#note This was anything but straightforward. Unbeknownst to me at the time, Richard has left HP in the bag. The knee-jerk/autopilot response to FLYTIER was to play VERGE H11 for 27. But depending on his rack, VERGE might give him an out bingo, and my 75-point lead would lose to any out bingo since he'd get points from my unplayed H. Championship Player indicates my two best plays are 5E SI(GH)...and this. I can afford to give him a 27-point (VEG)IE extension, but I cannot afford to let him bingo out. This is one of a handful of plays I have that wins 100%.
>Richard_Spence: ?EIIRRT H11 ...IE +27 388
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEHHPR 14G c.PHER +18 434
>Richard_Spence: ?IRRT 3B zI... +26 414
#note Just 'cause.
>Jim_Burlant: EH C12 .EH +18 452
#note HE 13B scores 2 more. Duh.
>Jim_Burlant: (RRT) +6 458
#note DAB was the wrong execution of the right idea, and the only other play that I'm less than thrilled with was my play of DAVEN (don't know how I never saw DELVED). The rest of it I'm comfortable with, even if Quackle took exception to my defensive posture in the late game.
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