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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Lisa_Odom Lisa Odom
>Jim_Burlant: ADEMOPV 8D VAMPED +36 36
#note Clearly best. Just for reference, trading 8 points and weaker board position for a better leave with 8D PAVED or 8D MOVED wins 2% less often and sims points down at not even 500 iterations.
>Lisa_Odom: ETZ E5 ZET. +26 26
>Jim_Burlant: BEEHIOO F6 HO.O +32 68
#note Don't know why I couldn't think of HOMIE, which not only scores 3 more points, but balances the rack better. That said, this worked out.
>Lisa_Odom: ?EILNSV H8 .NLIVEnS +92 118
>Jim_Burlant: ABEEILT 12G E.ITABLE +76 144
#note Only bingo. 53% to win in a short sim. Play incorrectly scored as 78.
>Lisa_Odom: EJLO M9 JEL.O +40 158
>Jim_Burlant: EINNOPU N6 PINON +28 172
#note So fixated with tripling the P that I never thought of the common UNION. This is my highest scoring option, but as you'll see, all I succeed in doing is short-changing myself on the next turn.
>Lisa_Odom: AAEGT O4 AGATE +33 191
>Jim_Burlant: ENOORSU I7 U.O +9 181
#note And if I'd played UNION as I should have, I'd be sitting on SNOOPERS 15H. Instead I have a no-go and nothing scores. If Q is to be believed, I should only fish off an O with 7E TOO and keep the U. This worked in the short term, though the board position caused me consternation later on.
>Lisa_Odom: AEEN D8 .EENA +16 207
>Jim_Burlant: AEENORS 15H .EASONER +77 258
#note I had to get a play right some time. This is my best bingo - 70% to win.
>Lisa_Odom: OWY 14J YOW +37 244
>Jim_Burlant: ADGIRTW C9 WRIT +26 284
#note I wasn't thrilled about setting up the hooks at 13D, but WAIT keeps an R with 4 still unseen, and WRIT isn't much more dangerous than WAIT since only 1 E is unseen. DAWT E10 was a possibility, but it kept an I, and 5 of them are still unseen. Hence, this. Q agrees - it's best. 62.3% to win. DAWT E10 wins just under 61 and sims 2 points down.
>Lisa_Odom: EKX E11 KEX +45 289
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ADDFGIL 13G F.D +27 311
#note Or DEF 13G. Either is as good as the other.
>Lisa_Odom: BUY N2 BUY +21 310
>Jim_Burlant: ACDGIIL B8 CAID +29 340
#note I love this play. It scores well and gives absolutely nothing back. 55% to win.
>Lisa_Odom: HRSU M4 RUSH +32 342
>Jim_Burlant: AFGILQR J10 QA. +32 372
#note I spent a long time on this turn and overthought it. Given the unseen pool, the play that's begging to be made from this rack is QI O1. But...I was fixated on the possibility of her hitting INTARSIA as a 2x2 and wanted to stop that; I thought I could potentially weather a 62-point J1 air ball, but INTARSIA as a natural for 82 would be too much to overcome. I also thought that she'd just drawn 4 tiles, and there wouldn't be as many I's in the bag as Quackle does. The problem with that logic is that QAT created a line for SeNARII or ANeSTRI, which never occurred to me at the time. Bottom line, this didn't defend like I thought it did and no bones about it, it's a mistake. All that said, Championship Player has a great suggestion that never occurred to me: FL(U) 5K. It pretty much kills bingoes and guarantees a Q dump at O1 or at 4J on the next turn. My choice of QAT? In the sim it's a 10-point dog, and it doesn't even hit Championship Player's radar screen.
>Lisa_Odom: AIR K8 RAI +14 356
>Jim_Burlant: FGIILRR 5B FRI. +16 388
#note Not much else to do here. The sim indicates this game is a crap shoot. 50% to win.
>Lisa_Odom: ?CU C3 CU. +10 366
#note Trailing by 30, it was easy for Lisa to fall into the trap of thinking she needed a bingo - even a 59-pointer - to win. Lisa realized post-mortem this wasn't the case. Previously, she'd seen that she could play eC(U) 3L for 28 and use her S on a subsequent turn to back hook WRIT...but then she forgot about eCU, so she fished for the bingo. If she played something like DIS 13A, the question is whether I would have even recognized the threat of eCU. Even then, my only block would have been something like the cheap GLIB K2 for 7, and she probably goes out before me to win that way. Instead, this cost her the game.
>Jim_Burlant: GILMNOR J4 GLIM +13 401
#note Better would have been MORN to guarantee outs in two places with either GLIB or GLIM.
>Lisa_Odom: ?DGISTT 4H DI.S +8 374
>Jim_Burlant: NOR 3C .ORN +6 407
>Jim_Burlant: (?GTT) +8 415
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