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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Jackson_Smylie Jackson Smylie
>Jim_Burlant: AGJMMSU 8G JAM +24 24
#note Tough rack - I couldn't think of GUMMA, and keeping duplicated M's didn't occur to me. Best is apparently 8F JUG to set up something with one of my M's.
>Jackson_Smylie: AFSUV J4 FAVUS +32 32
>Jim_Burlant: GIMOQSU 5H QU.G +28 52
#note The draw bails me out of my previous turn's mistake. I autopiloted QUAG to unload the G. UMIAQ 5G scores 32 to this play's 28, and the sim indicates this or UMIAQ are my two best choices and are virtually indistinguishable from each other. Style preference.
>Jackson_Smylie: ABO 9G OBA +26 58
>Jim_Burlant: EIMNOSY 10G YO +23 75
#note Three plays stand out at the top of the sim: 10G YONI, 10G YON, and this. I felt YONI broke up a hair too much of this promising rack. YONI wins the sim, winning roughly 0.8% more often than this. This sims just over 1 point down at 1300 iterations. That said, this worked.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEEGNOT -AEEGNO +0 58
>Jim_Burlant: EEIMNSS L1 NEMESIS +85 160
#note L5 SIEMENS scores 77, and this scores 85. Given that he just exchanged 6, I figured I was pretty safe slotting the triple. 83.3% to win.
>Jackson_Smylie: EHRW 2J WH.RE +38 96
>Jim_Burlant: FNSTTTV -FNTTV +0 160
#note Q says I should also keep the N and only exchange 4. Exchanging 4 keeping NST wins 79-1/2%. This wins 79.05 and sims 1 point down. What does Q know about my next rack that I don't?
>Jackson_Smylie: DLLO M6 DOLL +13 109
>Jim_Burlant: IIRSTTT 6E TITI +17 177
#note You know, I'm pretty sure I did wait until *after* I drew replacement tiles to throw my surplus T's back into the bag when I exchanged. :-) With DOLL just having blocked TIT M6, I have no choice but to play off both I's. This is clearly best - not only does it unload the duplicated T's, but it eliminates the possibility of TRANQ H1.
>Jackson_Smylie: ?DDEEIO E1 cOEDI.ED +68 177
#note This is Jackson's only bingo, and he's 38% to win in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: ?RRRSTW 2B STR.W +32 209
#note Yikes! It's fortunate for me he floated vowels, or I'd have been looking at my second exchange in barely three turns. 32 points and 4 tiles turned (most importantly, the W and one of those triplicated R's) make this the best choice I have. Even though I'm sitting on the case S and case blank, 2C TROW wins 3% less often and sims 5 points down.
>Jackson_Smylie: CDEI 8A DICE. +30 207
>Jim_Burlant: ?NOPRRT 1H PRO +20 229
#note This rack drove me crazy, as I was convinced there was someting in it I couldn't find. Turns out I didn't miss anything, as there are no 7's in it and the only 8 it makes is PRONATOR, which doesn't play. My best options are either this or D7 PERRON, the latter of which I didn't try very hard to find. It takes a while for the sim to sort itself out, but this is best. Just shy of 78% to win.
>Jackson_Smylie: AEHIN C8 .HAINE +30 237
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEGNRT 12B E.TERiNG +68 297
#note His play of CHAINE was huge, as I had planned on playing GERENTS/REGENTS 11A prior to that. With my current rack, nothing plays down the A column, and my two best bingo options (this and N9 iNTEGER) both have serious defensive liabilities. iNTEGER scores one more point and is the sim's preference, probably because of what might have happened on Jackson's next turn:
>Jackson_Smylie: LOOT A12 TOOL +25 262
#note I had forgotten about the T front hook to ENTERING when I put that down. Thank goodness he didn't have ARZ to go with his T.
>Jim_Burlant: AAIIKOX B14 XI +38 335
#note At the time, I just saw an easy I dump, 38 points, and more resistance to row 15. The sim says I should take 35 points for KAE B10. Just shy of 90% to win; KAE wins 91.05% and sims a little more than 3 points better.
>Jackson_Smylie: ANV E11 V.NA +14 276
>Jim_Burlant: AAAAIKO H12 .AOI +12 347
#note Yikes! Normally a rack like this would dictate an exchange, but his last play doesn't afford me that luxury. This turn took me several minutes to figure out. He's just set up VENA back hooks, and the pool threatens FLEEING/FEELING, so stopping that is my first priority. I initially considered AA F14 and rejected it because it could have given him a lifeline for FLANGE for 50 if he had a mostly junky rack with EFGLN in it. I also considered RAIA F12 and rejected it for the same reasons. Then I finally saw this. This nullifies easy row 15 plays and preserves my only consonant; given the pool and my inference that he was sitting on FLEEING or at least he had EFGLN in his rack, I put this down expecting to draw at least two consonants. Q likes RAIA F12; this is my next best choice in Quackle's eyes. Not sure I agree with Quackle. While RAIA does a better job dealing with the vowel overload, it doesn't defend well enough. With this, he has to have a bingo to hurt me and this pool doesn't have a whole lot of playable bingo prone combinations jumping out at me. I'd make this play again.
>Jackson_Smylie: Z 10B Z. +31 307
>Jim_Burlant: AAAKPRT 14H .AK +17 364
#note Juuuuust in case there's an 8 in the pool I didn't recognize. The only two plays I have that defend against potential bingoes are either 11I ARAK or this. I didn't recognize any 7's that played, so I thought I'd defend against 8's (if there are any) and set myself up for a row 15 play.
>Jackson_Smylie: FLNUY K10 FUNLY +33 340
#note Entering this game, I was at 4-1/2 wins and 5 losses, so I was more worried about winning the game than saving spread. I was 95% sure this was bogus (it is) but this late I needed to be 100% in order to challenge, so I let it stick.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEPRRT 4A PARE. +22 386
#note This or PARADER are my two best plays, but everything wins 100% here.
>Jackson_Smylie: BCEEGNU 1A CUE +19 359
>Jim_Burlant: AIRT N8 AIRT +10 396
>Jim_Burlant: (BEGN) +14 410
#note The opening rack was a bit of a stumper, but that worked itself out. Beyond that, outside of chickening out on challenging FUNLY*, I can't play much better than this.
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