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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Terry_Kang_Rau Terry Kang Rau
>Jim_Burlant: AORUUWX 8F ROUX +22 22
#note No clue. I felt like WAUR was going to leave me with an X that would clog my rack, WAX left me an obnoxious set of duplicated U's, and there were enough points available that, as tempting as it was to exchange, it wasn't necessary. I figured I'd split the difference between WAUR and WAX with this play. It takes a while for the sim to start sorting itself out, but this is best.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: EKPS 9E KEPS +24 24
>Jim_Burlant: ADEERUW 10D WADE +31 53
#note That worked out nicely. Down to one negative tile from the orignial collection of clunk within barely two turns. This is best, and it's winning 53%. 7E DEW and 7F AW are also reasonable choices.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: FO 11D OF +35 59
>Jim_Burlant: DEEGIRU 12A GUDE +28 81
#note Chose this for 28 points (highest scoring option I have) plus the fact that it unloads the toxic GU combination and leaves me less vowel heavy than anything else. I'd like to not have to slot the triple, but this position doesn't give me much choice. For reference: safer plays like 12B GIE and DUG win 3% less often and sim more than 5 points down. The game's more or less a crapshoot, as neither of us has gotten anywhere. A fraction over 50% to win.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: GRU B11 G.RU +10 69
#note Terry spent a *long* time here.
>Jim_Burlant: EIIORRT -IOR +0 81
#note While Terry's play of GURU didn't score a whole lot, it still hurt. It forced me to recalibrate, as she blocked my intended play of GIRO A12. With that no longer available, I autopiloted the exchange. Quackle, OTOH, doesn't think I need to exchange. Its preferred plays are 7B TORII and 7B ROTI, which barely score 11 and 10 points respctively, and if she's got any sort of clunk like FOY or THEW in her rack, they give way too much back. Not to mention easy 2-letter dumps on row 6 with the IRED front hooks. If she doesn't have a bingo and I exchange, what is she going to do on this board if she doesn't have a long word ending in AGE? If I exchange, I'm reasonably close to something; TORII and ROTI blow the rack apart for too little gain with shaky board position IMO. Q says this wins 2% less often and sims 4 points down on TORII, but I'm not buying it. YMMV.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: LSY 15B SLY +16 85
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRTV I6 VE. +14 95
#note To this point, I've played within reason, and the exchange I made was certainly not unreasonable given the limitations of the position, even if Quackle felt there were better plays. This is where Quackle confirms what my gut told me about this game: the ensuing sequence is where I really lost the plot. As for this misfire, At the time, the A column looked completely shut off and I never noticed AGE possibilities, so I whiffed on the star play here: VINTAGE A7 scores 38 and is definitely best. I chose this because it kept a good combination, there were still a bunch of E's out, and this took out the easy X overlaps. I figured AINRT would lead to a RETINA 8 after she opened through the V, and I'd hit that way. But watch what happens.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: CEEIIST 6G CI.IE +12 97
#note Actual rack.
>Jim_Burlant: AEINORT A11 A.O +9 104
#note It's only now that I noticed the possibility of AGE words down the A column and I figured that I'd defend against those. I saw K5 OE and didn't like what it did to the board. I thought it too easy for her to front hook, and my only bingo line would wind up yielding 65 points on row 14 and give a bunch back at H15. Best per the duck is to play 11B GOOF or K5 OE. GOOF should have been the play if I was going to defend against AGE words down the A column, as it scores 1 more point and preserves more of the rack.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: ?ELNNST K5 S.NTiNEL +78 175
>Jim_Burlant: AAEINRT 8K .A +3 107
#note This is the only good play I've made in the last three turns. The duck indicates that this or 12K LA are the star plays and they're indistinguishable from each other at the top of the sim.. Blowing the rack apart with TENIA or TINEA are dreadful plays in the duck's eyes.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: ABEERW M8 BEWARE +29 204
>Jim_Burlant: AEINRTV L1 NAEVI +20 127
#note Wow - there was a terrific play and a good play available: ANTIVIRUS H1 scores 41, and A8 VIRAGO scores 30. This is reasonable if you whiff on those, and all I was trying to do was open up the board. But to put it in perspective: this wins 5%, and ANTIVIRUS wins 12. Even if I find my best plays, my two misplays on turns 5 and 6 really killed this game for me. It's looking pretty bleak.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: DIQ 2K Q.ID +28 232
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIRTT 14G ATTIRED +73 200
#note While I pretty much screwed the pooch on turns 5, 6, and 8, I can't help but shake my head at the irony of this. I fish 2 tiles to AINRT, EINRT, and one to AEINRT and can't even land a no-go 7 in those racks...so I draw 5 tiles to RT and wind up with ATTIRED? That's ridiculous. This is my best bingo - she held the play, but wisely let it go. Up from 5% to 12% winning chances. Can I land the blank?
>Terry_Kang_Rau: HIP H12 PI.H +36 268
>Jim_Burlant: AABFNUY L12 AY. +23 223
#note Missed a cool extension here because I was too busy trying to balance the rack (not that ABFNU is a whole lot to write home about): (TAB)BY 8K scores 36. N6 FAUN scores 23 and is best.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: MO 1N OM +15 283
>Jim_Burlant: ABFINOU N9 FOB +26 249
>Terry_Kang_Rau: JOT O7 JOT +36 319
>Jim_Burlant: AILNNSU 3I ALI.N +27 276
>Terry_Kang_Rau: HO G13 H.O +24 343
>Jim_Burlant: NNOSTUZ J13 Z.N +12 288
#note Still hoping upon hope that she's whiffed on the blank and I can hit the out bingo that saves the day.
>Terry_Kang_Rau: ?EEILMT 4C ELMIEsT +68 411
>Jim_Burlant: ACNOSTU 2C TOUCANS +68 356
>Jim_Burlant: (GIRR) +10 366
#note One has to wonder what would have transpired had I gotten my fifth and/or sixth turns correct. If I play VINTAGE for 38 as I should have, I'm sitting on EOR and 4 unknown tiles on turn 6, and she's sitting on EIS after she probably comes back with ETIC 7D 25. Maybe I still lose, but I say that this loss was most probably my fault due to my inability to manage the board vison and tiles on those turns. While the lame plays like AY(E) didn't help either, whiffing on turns 5 and 6 set the defeat in motion. Amazing I didn't lose by more.
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