| Player 1 |
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#player1 CBB CBB
#player2 JD JD
>CBB: EFMRSWY -FMWY +0 0
#note cBB: I still think exchanging is correct here, but keeping the M is pretty obvious if I'm going to, so this is most certainly a mistake. 8G FRY does make it had for Jesse to play much, but I like taking the shot at the early bingo.
>JD: ADILNPT 8D PANDIT +24 24
#note JD: I missed the idea of exchanging 1 (keeping AILNPT), which hits 43/93 assuming he exchanges again. his x4 suggests a better than average rack and a higher than random bingo percentage for him. Conrad is a savvy player and unlikely to put a play on the board unless it's a bingo or a play with a power tile. the sim is even with no knowledge of his rack, but that's with a 65% bingo percentage after xD, which is too high. one additional perk of PANDIT is that it starts to create the open board I want against Conrad. All in all, I'm still not sure.
>CBB: EEILRSS J2 RESILES +71 71
>JD: ?ILLRRT 4C TRILLeR. +64 88
>CBB: AGIIOTV F1 VIO.ATI.G +67 138
#note JD: nice! conrad played this in about 2 seconds
>JD: AGNOQUY 2A YANQU. +36 124
#note JD: it definitely took a second or two to respond to Conrad's insta-9. I played YANQUI to prevent Conrad from killing me with a cheap play on row 1, and to score some points. it does give back some cheap points at A1 though on what is otherwise a very anemic board, such that a play like VANG 1F sims even simply by giving nothing back. still, with a deficit I am fine with the more volatile alternative.
>CBB: BEFMNTW A1 W.TE +33 171
>JD: DFGIOOZ H1 OOZ.D +42 166
#note JD: he blocked ZYGOID, but I am lucky to still have a scoring play
>CBB: DFGHMNO K5 FOH +35 206
>JD: FGINNRW 6I F..W +10 176
#note JD: I can fish the F alone going for PRAWNING but I felt that I needed to take a gamble. I can draw lots of backup bingos on the left.
>CBB: BGHMNRS -BGHM +0 206
#note cBB: This play hurt because I couldn't do anything about FLOW, and am forced to concede the lead, should he bingo.
>JD: EGINNRV M1 NERVING +87 263
>CBB: EJNRRSU H8 .NJURERS +98 304
#note cBB: LOL.
>JD: AAIILOX 14E IXO.A +28 291
#note JD: I liked that this preserved the lane from the S, which I figured I would need. JIAO at 10H sets up my X, but not for enough points to be worthwhile
>CBB: ABCDEOU 15A CUBED +36 340
#note cBB: Quackle still likes 13B DAUBE best here, even with an inference of vowel-heaviness for Jesse (IXORA over OX). I liked that this scored well, but 1K BU(N)CO could be an improvement, as the AO leave is pretty average. I just didn't see any reason to leave open row 15 here.
>JD: AEILMMT 11B MALEMI.T +74 365
#note JD: a huge mistake! I was fixated on choosing between trying LEMMATIC* for 95 or settling for MALEMIUT at B11 for what seemed to be an even game, and I missed MEALTIME at 13G, a play I definitely could find ordinarily. I was under heavy time pressure because conrad had been speed-playing me since move 2, so it paid off for him here.
>CBB: ABCGKOS 13B BOSKAG. +54 394
#note JD: conrad was going to challenge LEMMATIC* for sure because it blocked this play, but MEALTIME also would've blocked it. however, MEALTIME would've given conrad plenty of winning changes too, since he would have KNOB for 45 saving the S for MEALTIMES.
>JD: ?AEEEEI 4L E.E +12 377
#note JD: the moment of truth - I draw the blank but no consonant to go with it. this is basically a forced move, since he will almost certainly block the S next turn if I don't create a new lane (the only bingos I could reasonably draw into that don't play from the S are ONETIME, JADEITES and RAPIERED). AEEI? only hits 10/78 on the bottom lanes (CE CN CP CT DP DT EP NP NT PT). EVE hits a bingo on column O 9/78 times (ANx2 ATx2 CN DN HN NP NT), but looks like the bigger threat to him since he will assume I hold the N unless he already has it himself.
>CBB: AACDOUY 1K CA.DY +36 430
#note JD: conrad tries to run out the clock on me, figuring from the pool that I was likely very vowel-heavy on my last move, and also taking out some of the bingos that fit on column O. with this block, my actual win percentage given my last play and a random pool is 11/78, because ANISEED still fits. cBB: No reason to give him another chance to fish, as he's low on time, and likely kept a lot of vowels. I'm pretty sure this is the right play, but it didn't work out for me here. I actually thought my chances of winning were worse than they actually are.
>JD: ?AEEINT O4 NAIvETE +79 456
#note JD: I win in spite of the big miss of MEALTIME, which could easily have cost me the game.
>JD: (AEHOOPU) +24 480 |
