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#player1 Rafi_Stern Rafi Stern
#player2 Matthew_Tunnicliffe Matthew Tunnicliffe
>Rafi_Stern: IIPT H7 TIPI +12 12
#note hrm...
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: DEFJMTW I8 DEFT +22 22
>Rafi_Stern: CIIR 8F IR..IC +9 21
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ?EJMRTW J6 WR.T +20 42
>Rafi_Stern: INYY 11I .YIYN +22 43
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ?EEGJMN F5 JEE.NG +20 62
#note It's this or K4 JEE, I think. Despite my blank, I wasn't a fan of the openness of JEE. Too often, he's able to score AND block there. So I took JEEING hoping it would force him to open something up for my blank bingo.
>Rafi_Stern: AENV K3 NAVE +19 62
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ?EKMORW 2H WORKMEn +96 158
#note That was a special kind of lucksackery.
>Rafi_Stern: AEELRV 1D REVEAL +47 109
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: BEEHILO 1M HOE +24 182
#note It's tempting to save the H for a huge play, but it gets blocked most of the time. I was aware that this made row 3 more dangerous, but completely failed to realize how I could prevent that. 1L HOE scores 24 as well and kills the spot that Rafi is about to nail me in. Mistake
>Rafi_Stern: IX 3K .IX +50 159
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AAABEIL 12L AA +16 198
#note Another mistake. ABELIA is clearly best and I don't know why I didn't see it here.
>Rafi_Stern: AFG 4J F.G +26 185
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ABBEEIL 3C BAILEE +24 222
#note Rafi's rack is good by now. I liked what this did to the board.
>Rafi_Stern: AOSU 5D SA.OU +24 209
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: BEINORU 13I BOURN +32 254
>Rafi_Stern: ADDU 4A DUAD +28 237
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: DEIOQSS 14H QIS +22 276
#note I spent forever on this play. If I'm not doing this, I'm likely keeping the Q, scoring mediocrely, and leaving the easy bingo line open. But playing this is a huge gamble. Fortunately, I can definitely survive a big play by Rafi here. As long as it isn't a bingo or ZEATIN or something. Quackle is being a bit bipolar here, giving this play a pretty strong valuation, but -4 win% against plays like 2B DOE or A4 DOSED. It does a little better if I plunk in an S for Rafi (because of SAJOU maybe?). I don't know, it just felt like if I wasn't dumping my Q like this on this turn, I was eventually resigning myself to making a crappy 11-pointer with it at some point. I could use some input on this one.
>Rafi_Stern: ?AACNOT 15D COATi +57 294
#note Super lucky. My odd play blocked his bingo and convinced him I held the other I. But this big play still puts me behind
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: DELNOST A1 TOD.LE +24 300
#note I strongly considered (AA)L, but it still felt likely that SAJOU left him with an S (though it certainly wasn't a sure thing). In any case, AAL seems unnecessary. I can win by scoring and hoping to draw well.
>Rafi_Stern: AGLNRTU 14L NAG +19 313
#note A HUGE break for me as all four of the scoring tiles end up being in the bag and Rafi has almost no good options. He turns over 3, drawing into a minefield.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: EINOOSS O11 NOOSE +23 323
#note This is sloppiness from being low on time. Fishing off an O is exellent here, landing a large bingo quite often. NOOSE loses to a Z draw, which is bad because NAG infers a Z in the bag. Both plays lose to a U draw, which is weird considering it's the only unseen vowel! As it turns out, my play was better for what was actually in the bag, an H. OWE still wins with an H draw, but only by 1 point in a tricky tricky endgame that I would never have solved in time. So given time constraints, NOOSE/OWE are about equal in win%, with OWE racking up a lot more spread. Down to under 2 mins, I'll always look for the turnover plays first in the preendgame
>Rafi_Stern: LMPRTUZ F14 Z. +31 344
#note MPZ was a rough draw for Rafi
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: HIS B6 HIS +27 350
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: (LMPRTU) +20 370
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