| Player 1 |
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#player1 Josh_Sokol Josh Sokol
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Josh_Sokol: BBFGIPR -BBFGIP +0 0
#note Game one! This was the most controversial game of the whole tournament. If I were a good tournament player, whatever happened this game wouldn't have happened. I could have played FRIG here, but BBP is just disgusting. I think it's close between FRIG and the exchanges. And what exchange do I make if I exchange? PR has good synergy and I considered it, but it goes wrong when I draw a few consonants. Keeping R is safer, but it could also go wrong with a ton of one-pointer draws. And keeping IPR is the most bingo-friendly leave, but the tiny negative aspect of IPR is that it doesn't go for SSSS?? as much as the other exchanges. It's extremely close here; I think either of the 3 exchanges are valid, and it isn't worth it to think about them all too much.
>Jim_Burlant: ALMNOOS 8D MOOLA +20 20
#note No 7's in this SOLO MAN rack, and I didn't think it was worth 8 scoreboard points to keep more of the rack together with LOOM or MOOL given the vowel placement issues any of those plays presented. Q agrees - this is best. MONO, which I didn't consider, is second best but wins 3% less often and sims over 6 points down.
>Josh_Sokol: CIRRUUY G6 RU.Y +12 12
#note I wasn't 100% on CURIU(M) here and failed to consider (M)URRY. I saw CURI(O) and hated the leave, but it's not much worse than CIRU. CURIU(M) is obviously the play here. -10 or something. :/
>Jim_Burlant: EEINOSX 9B OXEN +25 45
#note So-so choice. OXEYE doesn't hit any useful premiums but still scores 32 to this play's 25 and doesn't open everything up the way this one does.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ACIIRU F2 CURIA +19 31
#note My first bailout rack of the tournament AND my first turn in which I missed a 9! A(ME)RICIUm would have been fantastic to see and draw a challenge on. I almost chickened out on this word.
>Jim_Burlant: EINSTTZ 5C ZIT. +26 71
#note If the last play was so-so, this was even worse. 4D NERTZ scores 48. If I want to play short, preserve more of the rack, and not give any H1 counterplay back, 5E ZIT scores 32 and keeps EINST together. This is total board vision failure.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ADIRSV B7 AV.DIReS +80 111
#note VIzARDS or VIzARDS at I2 keep the board bereft of bingo opportunities for my opponent, yet only but me 30 points ahead. I thought that taking extra points here was a better route to take, since if I draw badly next turn, I'm not necessarily in trouble if I'm 40 ahead rather than 30.
>Jim_Burlant: BEEHNST 4D HE.B +30 101
#note Right idea, wrong execution. This is a strong choice (a rarity for me this game to this point) but it's not quite best. The slightly better play would have been BERTH in the same location for 8 more points, as it doesn't threaten huge plays at H1 if he's got the Y. I'm still in the game despite myself, as the sim thinks I'm just shy of 45% to win.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AHNOOR A11 HONOR +38 149
#note A1 HARpOON is a bingo. 2B cOAN(C)HOR is also a bingo. CORONACH is the anagram of COANCHOR. So for this turn I learned a new word, and sunk lower on the blank bingo finding scale. Not that this was a huge mistake. Rather that I need to see HARPOON on my rack.
>Jim_Burlant: EMNOSTW C11 MEW +37 138
#note This was not an easy turn. I took a long time debating between this and H1 MOWS. I recognized the need to defend against H1 plays ending in Y, and weighed whether it was worth it to burn the S to do so. Ultimately, I felt that it was still early enough that I could score now and risk waiting one more turn to take that spot out since the bag is still roughly 2/3 full and only 1 Y is at large. I figured that, if, on my next turn, I had an inert rake like ENORSTT without an 8 available, I could burn the S on the next turn to play at H1. The sim agrees with me - this is best, and it makes clear that MOWS is decidedly a weaker play. This wins just shy of 42%; MOWS wins 38 and sims almost 5 points down.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ADLOUY H1 DULY +53 202
#note Damn, he's got the Y.
>Jim_Burlant: AGNOQST 7A Q.T +13 151
#note Another turn I puzzled over. Dump the Q? Exchange GOQ? Exchange OQ? Even though the duck thinks this is my best play, given my deficit and what this does to the board I wonder if I should have exchanged OQ or GOQ here to keep the threat of an A1 bingo alive. I'm guessing that, because I still have the S to back hook MOOLA and that the northeast provides some good for 8's (but for how long?), Q thinks I don't need to exchange and that this play is correct. Regardless of what really is right here, one thing is certain: between my whiffing on my second and third (and maybe fourth) turns and the subsequent turn of luck this game is on the verge of getting away from me. I'm now winning 19%.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AACEIO H8 .ECIA +13 215
#note I played this because I remembered AECIAL as being invalid, but also cause Jim's leave seemed very strong and so I wanted to take out the only 7 lane on the board. But this donates a few more 8 lanes to Jim's bailout fund anyways, and 3C AA exists.
>Jim_Burlant: AGINOSU -OU +0 151
#note Feeling taunted by the tile gods: I dink off the Q for chump change and on a two-tile draw, I land the *only U in the bag*. The star choices are 1G UDO (I think it hurts me more than helping me given that it kills row 1 ,which I want to stay alive if I want to get back into the game), 3H LANUGO (never saw it) and this. Despite giving up equity, this play wins more than everything except UDO. I'm fine with this.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AEOTTW 10D TOW +22 237
>Jim_Burlant: ABGINNS 3A BANG +21 172
#note This is my highest scoring option. That said, if the duck is to be believed (it doesn't like this at all, and yes, I know JIBE is a potential comeback), I should just fish off an N. I believe this is one of those positions where the duck is to be taken with a grain of salt, and here's why. E is the most probable tile in the pool, so fishing off an N and keeping row 1 alive means an E gives me DEBASING. However, I don't know how many E's are in his rack, and the sim bases its evaluation on what happens over however many hundred or thousand times it gets to draw one tile from all the unseen tiles. Of course, on that basis, a one-tile fish is going to yield an E more often than anything else. But I only get one crack at the bag, not 1000. If, best case, all the unseen E's are at large, I have roughly a 2-in-9 chance of getting one given this pool...which means that roughly 7 of 9 times, I'll come up empty. And that's the best case. My take is that a fruitless fishing expedition on this turn all but guarantees this game will get away from me, so I'm better off taking the points and turnover to try and stay in the game. And, yeah, cross my fingers that he doesn't have the J. YMMV.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AAEETT I1 ETA +12 249
#note Now in completely opposite logic to last turn, I decide to block 8 lanes and provide a new 7 lane for Jim. TA(B) is a good play here. Oh, and I miss CATENATE and write down CATERATE*. Oh, and I OVERDRAW. Very fortunately for me he sees ITE and throws away the T, missing the S I just drew and the blank I've been holding due to having missed bingos earlier on.
>Jim_Burlant: EIINNPS J3 PINNIES +66 238
#note Bailed! And I was about to catch a huge break. Back in the game.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AEEIIS - +0 249
#note So to add trainwreckage to this game, while I overdraw he lays down PINNIES, so I hold him before we do the overdraw procedure, and once the procedure is over, I breathe an invisible sigh of relief while S? are still on my rack and decide that I'll challenge this word I have never seen before. Apparently it's a normal word and means the same thing as the more obscure PINAFORE, which I obviously knew as a Scrabble word only.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEFKPT 11G P.KED +24 262
#note On his previous turn he played off ETA, and he subsequently challenged PINNIES. I figured he was probably 80 - 90% sure PINNIES was good and he only desperation challenged because PINNIES had blocked a 7 he was going to put down, and he didn't have an 8. Thus, my first priority was blocking row 11 and adding resistance to row 12 (something like AILERONS is still possible on row 12, but that's one of only a handful of bingoes that will play on row 12). This is the only one of my top five available options that defends. If he's played off 4 or 5 tiles and I can't infer anything about his rack, KAF B2 looks like the right play both to balance the rack and block plays at A1. But, given this situation, I'd make this play again.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AEEIIS 13A ...IE +7 256
#note So now I don't have any lanes, which would have been fine had I safeguarded my lead. I need to play I(D)EA at K10 this turn, but this is fine, and much better than I think it is, cause.
>Jim_Burlant: AFGLRTV 13H LAV +15 277
#note And he dumps off yet more surplus bingo prone tiles. From where I was sitting, rack management on my end had to wait and the priority was making sure he couldn't bingo. Again, Quackle wants me to dump off the garbage for cheap at B2 (VAT, TAV, etc.). My take: this play puts me up just enough that I may still be able to overcome a 42-point JIBE, but I won't be able to overcome a bingo, even if it's only 65 points. Q doesn't like this at all (predictably) but I caught another huge break:
>Josh_Sokol: ?AAEIST - +0 256
#note I challenge AECIAL as I thought I would from the start of the game. I didn't want to start doubting myself after unsuccessfully challenging PINNIES, even though AECIAL did look like a word. I remembered AECIA on zyzzyva as not taking any hooks, so at least I'm consistently wrong.
>Jim_Burlant: DFGIJRT B2 J.G +22 299
#note Spent minutes debating whether to play for 36 with JIB or 22 points with JAG. The 14 points were tempting, but I felt that if he was sitting on a vowel overload, I wouldn't want to leave myself without vowels. On this board a I felt a lead of 43 was as good as 57, so after a couple of minutes I opted to sacrifice points for balance and the increased probability of being able to play through. In retrospect I certainly wish I'd just taken the points.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AAEIST K10 I.EA +12 268
#note Now it seems I made the right play, although K13 AA looks interesting too.
>Jim_Burlant: DFIORTU K4 FOU +23 322
#note Okay, now I have to add resistance to the line he just created for an easy 7. Not thrilled about giving him something like RAFT as a comeback, but I can survive 33 points; I can't give up 68. This maximizes my score and makes it much tougher for him to bingo. It's best.
>Josh_Sokol: ?ALRSST K10 ....L +6 274
#note But perhaps outscoring is still possible if I play something like L2 LAST or D12 S(I)LT, because they both also threaten bingos... I don't really know how to measure what the right play might be here. Quackle doesn't either really. But it seems that LAST is the right play. This is too easily blockable.
>Jim_Burlant: DEEIORT I13 .E +2 324
#note I don't care about equity at this point; I can let him have something in the 30-35-point range at 15K, but I cannot let him bingo on row 15. This doesn't even hit Quackle's radar but Quackle's suggestions for this position are just stupid (it likes a bunch of C1 plays for 12 points that don't defend). I'd make this play again. One more comment: time was becoming a real problem by now, as I'd spent a lot of time on way too many of these turns. I was way down on time and had to recheck the tracking, which only compounded my problems.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AGRSST 5J ..G +4 278
#note At what point to I try to outscore rather than bingo? A good player should be able to block just about everything here. His clock is quite low, though.
>Jim_Burlant: DEINORT L7 TROD +9 333
#note I initially put down DIRT, thought about it, then realized I needed the slightly more defensive TROD. When this went down I was 53 seconds over on time.
>Josh_Sokol: ?AFRSST 15K STAfF +31 309
#note So this is -2 to L12 TSAR. My priority was to make him lose 7 more seconds and tie or win.
>Jim_Burlant: EEIN 8L .EIN +12 345
#note Amazing how you become a total idiot when you're in danger of going another minute over on time. Wrote his score down and slapped this down on autopilot. 14 M NEE or 14K LINE would have been enough to overcome the goofs that followed. Time on my clock when this went down: -1:00.
>Josh_Sokol: RS D12 S.R +14 323
#note At the time, we tallied things up and as I saw the end game play out, I agreed with Josh when we deducted 20 points from my score because I had come up with the same calculation as I saw him put his play of SIR down. Frankly, I was so relieved to have escaped with the tie given how the early game had gone that I didn't even ask to recount. A few minutes after the paperwork was submitted (the game was recorded as a 325 - 325 tie and a recount wouldn't have changed that since we otherwise scored it correctly), while I was waiting for my next game, it dawned on me: my 1:00 time penalty should have been 10 points, not 20, and I should have had a 10-point win. With the rule change in recent years, a submitted result was now final and could not be changed. When I talked to Josh about this, he realized the error too, was very apologetic and it was obvious we had both made an honest mistake. And a shout-out to Josh here: I found out later that, on his own, Josh went to the officials to try to get the result changed to my win, but to no avail. Josh, if you're reading this, thank you for trying; I really appreciated that. But, if I play the game just one second faster (well within my control to do so) none of this comes to pass. I had my chance and blew it.
>Josh_Sokol: (E) +2 325 |
