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#player1 Cesar_del_Solar Cesar del Solar
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Cesar_del_Solar: AEGNOPW 8D WEAPON +30 30
#note JB: NSC, round 29. I'm currently in 18th place. While it's a very tall order considering the murderers row of opponents I'm about to face, if I win out, I probably cash. Since I have a tie, the only other player at my win level is Thomas Reinke, who trails me by 296 spread points. The win is the main goal and I'm not particularly worried about the last two spread points here or there.
>Jim_Burlant: ABCEIVX 9C VEX +31 31
#note I saw this and IBEX, and never thought of XEBEC. The duck says this isn't best statically. But it only takes the 2-ply sim barely 200 iterations before VEX percolates its way to the top. 9B IBEX and E7 XEBEC round out the podium.
>Cesar_del_Solar: DEGMOUZ 7C ZED +40 70
>Jim_Burlant: ABCEINO E5 CO... +30 61
#note I didn't see anything else, so that rendered this position a moot point. VOCAB C9 is a strong choice, but it's not best. This is.
>Cesar_del_Solar: GHIMOQU H4 QUOH.G +29 99
#note This was the first of three key plays Cesar made that dictated the game, as you'll see in a moment.
>Jim_Burlant: ABEEINT I3 BINE +24 85
#note Foiled. Now that he blocked BETAINE 7H, it's either this or I3 BITE. I chose this because the leave (AET) is marginally better than the AEN leave of BITE. The sim and championship player are in slight disagreement. The sim says this is best, and the difference between this and BITE is splitting hairs. If the cross-tables leave evaluator is to be believed, the AET leave with this choice is 0.1 points stronger than the ANE leave of BITE; I'm guessing Quackle is more worried that UN is easier for him to extend or play through than UT? Championship Player says BITE would have been better by roughly 0.9% and 2.2 points. Given how the game panned out, BINE instead of BITE might as well have been the equivalent of missing a bingo. Tough break.
>Cesar_del_Solar: AFGIMRW G5 FRA. +25 124
#note JB: Key play number 2 by Cesar. If his best play on his previous turn was, for argument's sake, to extend the V into VOWING for 26, I'd have bingoed with BETAINE and would be sitting on LOT? and 3 more unknown tiles, and bingoing again pretty soon. Instead I possess the blank and cannot bingo with it because he has controlled the board.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AELOTT C9 .OLTA +16 101
#note Foiled again - (P)ALETOTs was just blocked and I don't have anything on row 9 (the only 8's this rack makes with a G are TOLLGATE and PLOTTAGE). My problem with just dumping the T with (A)T F8 is that I'm still probably going to have to open up on my next turn as well unless Cesar hits some really big play. I can open up now, or later, so I might as well do it now. Quackle says I should just fish the T with F8 (A)T. That's because, given this pool with its 8 unseen I's, my highest probability draw gives me an almost unblockable IsOLATE. That's great in if I get to do what Quackle does and repeat this turn 1000 times and base my play on what happens most often when I draw 1 tile from this pool. However, I don't know how many I's or S's are in his rack, and I only get one crack at the bag, not 1000. Not to mention that 54 of those 67 unseen tiles are not I, S or a blank. If I were leading, not trailing by 39, A(T) would be my play. I felt it too early to be going after what was, at best, roughly a 1-in-6 shot to work. YMMV.
>Cesar_del_Solar: FGIMNTW 13B W.FTING +15 139
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEEEST 11B E.EvATES +64 165
#note Bingo options are either this or LEGATEES. I felt that if I had to create one triple letter hot spot at F10, I better create a countering spot at 10B. Championship Player says I should have just played LEGATEES. 12A TATE is also a strong choice. 56.5% to win.
>Cesar_del_Solar: AMNOPRU 10F MU +22 161
#note UPO at 10A sims a lot better -- MANOR is a better leave. -4
>Jim_Burlant: AEIILLO 3I .IALI +14 179
#note I saw this and 12I ILIA, and took this for the points. Q indicates it's either this or 3I BAILIE. I never saw BAILIE, and looking at it now I don't like the board position. I'm fine with this choice.
>Cesar_del_Solar: ANOOPRR L1 PO.ARON +24 185
#note cmon blank or S
>Jim_Burlant: BCELLOR 2K B.LL +18 197
#note Only saw 2 plays here: 12H ROBLE (wasn't entirely sure of it) and this. This is a strong choice but it's not best: K2 LABEL scores 26 and would have been best. LABEL scores 26, but the small consolation: it wouldn't have stopped his next play, and the points I miss here come out in the wash over subsequent turns. LABEL wins 51-1/2%; this wins 48 and sims nearly 5 points down as the silver medalist.
>Cesar_del_Solar: ADEIMRR K6 MARRIED +76 261
#note i play so dumbly sometimes. i mean i saw ADMIRER.. just not in that spot. (-5)
>Jim_Burlant: AACEEJR 1H RECA. +32 229
#note I only saw this and didn't look for much else, as it scores well and opens up row 2 so he can't just shut the board down. While this is best, an option I didn't see at the time that looks intriguing is 9K RAJ, since it sets up the A hook down the O column and I'm sitting on the case A. If he can block that, it's going to have to be for cheap.
>Cesar_del_Solar: GIIKOTU M6 TIKI +19 280
#note tiki also blocked his jivey
>Jim_Burlant: AEJOUVY 8M .AY +30 259
#note Foiled yet again - he blocked JIVEY for 42. None of my options are particularly good here - I considered 12K DAVY, GUV H13, and this. DAVY wins a sim, but I didn't like what it did to the board. 2F JOE kills the board, too. This is the best of the rest, and it scores better than anything else and I have to stay in the game to have a chance to win it. Both Championship Player and the sim say DAVY is best, GUV is decent, and that this is a reasonable choice as well, but their assessments of my winning chances are quite different. The sim says DAVY wins just shy of 9%, and this wins 6-1/4. Championship Player's take is quite different, saying that DAVY wins almost 19% and that this is the bronze medalist, winning 15.6. Bleak no matter which flavor of Quackle you trust.
>Cesar_del_Solar: GIOSTUY C3 SOYU. +34 314
>Jim_Burlant: EEJOSUV 14A JO +28 287
#note I chose this because I figured that (a) he couldn't reply at 15A w/o burning his blank, and (b) with only 1 E in the unseen pool, I thought he had it and that I could get away with keeping duplicated E's. Again, the sim and Championship Player are conflicted. The sim wants me to play EVE L12 to make him defend row 15. Given this pool it's next to impossible for him to not be able to block. Championship Player says this is my best play. Regardless, none of this would have mattered.
>Cesar_del_Solar: ?DGHIIT 15B GID +14 328
#note i think H11 EIGHT is ok here. yes it would suck if he has a bingo but i can likely get one back. GID cuts his bingo percentage very much though but it's down like 6% in win%... maybe because i might not be able to outrun something like ADVENTS?
>Jim_Burlant: EEENSUV 6K ...E +8 295
#note No clue. Ostensibly GUV wins 8.33% and everything else wins 0.0% - how does anything win here? Even if I get the blank and the right tile, he does something to screw up the O column and I can't bingo, and I won't be able to make up enough points. Thoughts anyone?
>Cesar_del_Solar: ?HINRST O6 TH.RSI +19 347
#note i wanted to just play 10B HO but look my spread is like -200 and i just need to win games. yes i was fairly certain there's no way he could bingo out but i wasn't 100% on it. if i'm going for spread and i haven't lost a lot of games i would play it. so lots of equity loss here but i assure the win. -23
>Jim_Burlant: EENSTUV 10J V.ES +24 319
#note 13K SEVEN scores 27, but whatever. Losing this one guarantees I can't cash. Even a class prize is tenuous at best, so spread has become irrelevant and I'm just moving tiles to end the game.
>Cesar_del_Solar: ?DN D2 NoD +13 360
#note uh missed don for 3 more. -3
>Cesar_del_Solar: (ENTU) +8 368
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