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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Kristina_Simon Kristina Simon
>Jim_Burlant: NOOORSU 8H ONO +6 6
#note I didn't think the U was great but didn't see a reason to exchange. Quackle thinks I'm an idiot for trying to play through this nonsense, saying I should have exchanged OOU, keeping RS.
>Kristina_Simon: ABNR 9G BRAN +17 17
>Jim_Burlant: EEORSUW 10F WOE +21 27
#note Or 10I WOE.
>Kristina_Simon: GHO 11E HOG +25 42
>Jim_Burlant: DEHORSU K9 DUH +22 49
#note I debated between this or SHROUD 12G and opted for this because I thought the S was too valuable on this board, both down the D column and now the L column ith BRAND back hooks. SHROUD does well statically but the sim hates it. Q agrees - this is best.
>Kristina_Simon: CEIMR 12B CRIME +31 73
>Jim_Burlant: AEEORSU C10 EU.O +8 57
#note Certainly not the draw I was hoping for, and this was only about to get worse. Q says it's this or EAU L11, with this getting the nod by a hair in the sim.
>Kristina_Simon: EFNU B7 ENUF +28 101
>Jim_Burlant: AAEKRRS 8A K.AR +27 84
#note Thank goodness she floated the N. This is clearly best. For reference - 8A SNAKE scores 15 more but wins 4% less often and sims 9 points down due to leave and playing off the S.
>Kristina_Simon: Z 10B ..Z +15 116
>Jim_Burlant: AAEEORS -AEO +0 84
#note Through the first 5 turns I've gotten everything right, but frustration was starting to kick in. There's really no need to exchange here, though exchanging isn't unreasonable. Best is apparenly A6 OAK for 9. Makes sense to a degree, though that could backfire if she's got something big starting in S. This is a 5-1/2 point dog in the sim. 37% to win.
>Kristina_Simon: AIX J5 AXI.. +28 144
>Jim_Burlant: AEJNRST L10 TAJ +27 111
#note You know you've had a crappy draw when your previous play won 37% and your best option on this turn only wins 31%. While the exchange on my previous turn wasn't necessary in the strictest sense it wasn't an unreasonable play given that I wanted to not leave myself vowel overloaded. This turn stumped me, because, with no J fish available, the big question to me was how long to play? I overestimated the risk of an H1 play if I played JAR 5I. Despite my rack, RAJ 5I seemed sure to give too many easy points if she had an A, and TAJ 5I shut the board down if she played down the D column and I didn't have a bingo starting in S. And with only 2 R's unseen I didn't really want to part with my R. Ultimately, I felt that with 5 T's unseen I had a good chance of drawing another one, and this scored well, kept a respectable ENRS, and kept things wide open. Q says I should have played 5I RAJ, saying that wins 31-1/2%, with this winning 30 and simming roughly 3 points down. This equity slip cost me whatever feeble chance I had at this game, as you'll see in a second.
>Kristina_Simon: INW K5 WIN +33 177
>Jim_Burlant: DELLNRS L2 DELL +16 127
#note This was where I realized I was in serious trouble, as even her crap was scoring huge. As for this - now I'm getting desperate as I'm getting screwed by these racks. There are still a bunch of E's unseen so I'm not too worried about parting with it, and I want to keep the E column alive. Maybe I'll land a blank with 2 of them unseen, and this keeps the board alive. Q says this is a strong choice but not best. Its preferred plays are HALL 11K (I don't care if I have an S, that's just asking for it IMO with SSS unseen) and DELLS L2 (IMO, premature for me to burn the S). Regbardless, this is bleak. My previous play won 30%; best play here barely wins 20 if Quackle is to be believed,a nd this wins just shy of 19. This is getting bad, fast. And it was about to be worse.
>Kristina_Simon: ABP M9 BAP +21 198
>Jim_Burlant: DFNOPRS 3H FOND.R +22 149
#note Are you kidding me? AAAAEEEEEEEIIIIIITTTTT unseen and I draw DFOP?!?!? GMAB. I hated this play but didn't see much else. If you look at the sim, anything is as good as anything and the fifth option sims within 1 point and 1% winning chances of the top choice. 3K FEND is ostensibly best (again, playing with fire IMO) with this being awfully close.
>Kristina_Simon: ?AELMSS 7B .M +14 212
#note Actual rack. I blocked MEATLESS with FONDER and she whiffed on all the bingoes here.
>Jim_Burlant: ?IPQRST H1 RI.T +24 173
#note Not great, but not atrocious given my options. The problems I had with 14A QIS for 29 were that (a) if she had IT in her rack, I'd be trading 29 for 41 and subsequently be trailing by 75, and (b) the E column was no longer a juicy target because I burned the S. QuIT 2F never occurred to me, and 2G QI was just reckless, even if it didn't open up a bingo line. If you don't like or see those options, this is all that's left. 28% to win, and these draws just are not helping me here.
>Kristina_Simon: ?AELSST E2 cASTLES +71 283
#note N8 TASSELS scores 85, but this certainly does a lot of damage in its own right, as I'm now limited to the N column (if I can hit it) or an 8 oin row 5, which still requires me to have an S. She's 97% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EELPQS 2G Q. +11 184
#note Not much else I can do with this. Q thinks I still have a 5% chance to win. Can I smoke some of what you've been smoking, Quackle?
>Kristina_Simon: CEEGINY J1 YI. +8 291
>Jim_Burlant: ?EEELPS 14C SLEEPEr +65 249
#note Bingoing isn't best here, but 7 straight racks of garbage have rendered this one academic except for the final score. If Quackle is to be believed, 2L DEEP and D3 PEE ostensibly win 14%, but I'm not buying it. If I play DEEP she's guaranteed to block the O column, even if it's only for 15 poihnts with TOP or NIP, etc. As for the bingoes, STEEPLE in the same location would have been a hair better but it wouldn't have mattered.
>Kristina_Simon: IRV H12 VI.R +33 324
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEGOO 2L .OGE +14 263
#note Annotation ends here, final score recorded as 297 - 382. I may not have played perfectly, but seven (!!) straight racks of garbage rendered this one an exercise in futility.
#rack2 CEINSTT
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