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#player1 Mike_Early Mike Early
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Mike_Early: ARUW 8F WAUR +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: ?LOQRRY -LOQRY +0 0
#note Believe it or not, this wasn't a no-brainer. I initially considered rack cleaners like LORRY I5 and WORRY F8. In both cases I just couldn't wrap my arms around playing for cheap and keeping the Q without a guaranteed Q play on the next turn, and I didn't want to find myself staring at the Q and/or the blank 4 turns later, so I opted to exchange. Quackle more or less agrees with me, though it says I didn't need to go as deep with this exchange. Q thinks I only needed to exchange QR and keep LORY?. Championship Player says this is a 4-point dog to exchanging QR. Seriously?
>Mike_Early: AADEHMR 7E HAM +23 37
#note Actual rack. Post-mortem, Mike and I walked through this position. While Quackle says he had a few better choices, they fundamentally wouldn't have changed what happened.
>Jim_Burlant: ?IJRTUW 6F JaW +61 61
#note I considered JaW 6F and F6 J(AW). If J(AW) left me, for example, EIRTW?, I'd have just dumped the J for 29. But I felt that the UW leave with JAW was so toxic to the rack that, between the extra 32 points and the need to break up the UW combo, the blank had to be sacrificed. JAW for 29 is third best, winning 49%. JUT 6D (which I never considered) scores 25 and wins 51% and, because it breaks up UW, sims 5-1/2 points better than the J dump. This choice? It's best, winning 52% and simming almost 3 points better than JUT.
>Mike_Early: OR H4 RO. +7 44
>Jim_Burlant: GIIRTTU 5H .UTRIG +14 75
#note Thank goodness Mike put the O out there. Nothing scores well here; all I can do is turn the rack and clear the garbage. This is best - 56% to win, and the rout is about to start momentarily.
>Mike_Early: DU M3 DU. +10 54
>Jim_Burlant: AEINPTT 3B PATIENT +77 152
#note And I draw 5 tiles into an easy high prob bingo. Can you say "luck box?" The other bingo options are K4 and I7 TRIPTANE for 70 and 63 points. This is best both for the extra scoreboard points and board position. 84% to win.
>Mike_Early: IQ 4A QI +25 79
>Jim_Burlant: ACEFFNO 5B COFF +31 183
#note I might have slightly overreacted to Mike's having put the Q at 4A. With Mike obviously fishing, I thought that if he didn't draw into a bingo rack, he would probably come back with something like QANAT, QUINT, etc. down the A column. This scores 31, unloads my F's, and blocks Q extensions. Quackle says this is my 4th best choice; that said, Q also thinks I really missed the boat as COFF is a 14-point dog in the sim. Quackle's three preferred plays are 4D OFFER 38, and OFF/AFF 4D for 32 because they all outscore this and keep the C so I can front hook HAM. And they don't give back potential 40-point plays like S(PIC)Y, which I hit later in the game. I can understand why OFF is slightly better, but I don't think this is the major blunder Quackle does. Regardless, this worked out.
>Mike_Early: AEILRTY 9H TEARILY +67 146
#note Mike's only other bingo is K1 LITERARY for 61; this scores 67 and is his best play. He's 21% to win, but not for long.
>Jim_Burlant: AEGINRX M7 RE.AXING +84 267
#note The lesson here: find a good play, look for a better one. I was all set to put down the easy 10I EX when I then told myself this was a GAINER rack, there *had* to be a bingo in there. When I recognized RETAXING, I then recognized RELAXING. This is my only bingo. 94% to win.
>Mike_Early: RTZ 12L R.TZ +46 192
>Jim_Burlant: AELOSSY O11 A.OLE +42 309
#note There are several plays that do much better than this statically (e.g.: B2 SPICY, 2E OYES) but if I leave the Z alone and play on row 2, that's just begging for Mike to hit the Z for at least 39 more easy points. Meanwhile, I've got the Y for row 2 on the next turn and a big enough lead I don't need to worry about bingoing if I can keep the 30-point plays coming. Quackle agrees. This is best. OYES wins 1% less often and sims over 4 points down.
>Mike_Early: BEEILSV 10B BELIVES +79 271
>Mike_Early: BEEILSV -- -79 192
>Jim_Burlant: EGHSSUY B2 S...Y +40 349
#note I didn't look particularly hard for anything that burned both my S's, and that ruled out the plays Quackle likes best here (2F HUSSY and 10F HUSSY/GUSSY). As for this - I knew he'd come back with BEVEL down the A column, but given that SPICY puts me up by 157, I'm okay with trading 40 for 37 and unloading a duplicated S and a Y in the process. I'm still over 99% to win.
>Mike_Early: BEEILSV A6 BEVEL +37 229
>Jim_Burlant: DEGHISU N14 UH +23 372
#note Statically best but this evaluates terribly in the sim. Apparently I should play 10E GUISED to kill the I column, add resistance to row 11, and limit him to bingoes at B9. Still over 99% to win.
>Mike_Early: DO 2F DO +16 245
>Jim_Burlant: DEGILOS 1G DOG +19 391
#note Right idea, wrong execution. Preventing easy points on row 1 is obviously indicated, but I should look to do more groom the rack. There are still lot's of E's at large (not to mention a blank), so I don't need to be so protective of my E. Best would have been GEOID 1D for 34 instead of 19 for this. Had I thought of the I front hook to ON, I might have found GEOID. This is lame, but it still worked.
>Mike_Early: BDINOST -BDI +0 245
>Jim_Burlant: CEEILNS 11A SILENCE +79 470
#note SELENIC (which I couldn't think of) would have been best here since it doesn't take any back hooks. Not that it wound up mattering except for a handful of points of spread. Regardless, this crosses the threshold: officially 100% to win, and I wasn't done yet.
>Mike_Early: BN 4L B.N +18 263
>Jim_Burlant: ?AKMOPT O1 AMOK +60 530
#note 8L KEMP scores 69, but this is best because(a) half the unseen pool back hooks BUN, which this defends against and (b) this still scores 60 points while I'm defending.
>Mike_Early: ADINO H11 DANIO +32 295
#note This is why SELENIC would have been better than SILENCE a couple of turns ago: this is really just an ordinary play, but he doesn't have options to H15 if I play SELENIC.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIOPST C7 PISO.iTE +76 606
#note Are you serious?!?!?
>Mike_Early: AEEEINS 11L A. +11 306
>Jim_Burlant: V I8 ..V +6 612
#note DEV F2 scores 1 more.
>Jim_Burlant: (EEEINS) +12 624
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