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#player1 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
#player2 Brian_Bowman Brian Bowman
>Dave_Koenig: AHNRSSV 8G VANS +14 14
>Brian_Bowman: IX J8 .IX +26 26
>Dave_Koenig: DEEHHRS H5 REH.SHED +67 81
>Brian_Bowman: EIWZ 11D WEIZ. +34 60
>Dave_Koenig: AEEINOU I6 AI.EE +32 113
#note Perfect example of how the extra CSW words can bail you out of a bad rack and help you keep scoring a lot.
>Brian_Bowman: AMR 10D ARM +28 88
#note I'm curious what Brian had here. He started to place the M high up on column E as though he was going to bingo, but then he hesitated and played this instead. I was quite happy to see ARM, as it blocks the board in a way that is favorable to me.
>Dave_Koenig: BINORSU 12D NIB +32 145
>Brian_Bowman: IOTT J3 TOIT +11 99
>Dave_Koenig: AEEORSU I2 OU +6 151
#note This is admittedly a pretty crazy looking move that was based much more on the (possibly faulty) intuition of the moment than any robust analysis. It looks bizarre when I am in the lead on a relatively tight board to create an opening to the triple in the way I did. It would make more sense in my position to turn over tiles and score well instead of fishing for bingos, but the problem is that I don't have any good plays except for fishes here. In retrospect, EAU I12 looks like a good play, as it balances the rack better, and sets up my S on row 15, when there is only one other S unseen and the X is gone.
My play was quite possibly an inferior choice, but bear with me and see if I can convince you that it's not quite as crazy as it looks.
Firstly, the fact that there is only one other unseen S (for the SOU hook) is key. I do *not* infer from TOIT that Brian was necessarily holding the S for the STOIT# hook. However, an important factor is that if I don't play up top with OU but do draw a bingo on the next turn, I may be forced to play it on row 2 making STOIT# myself. That would probably give him strong row 1 comebacks.
OU also has several other front hooks, but one of the two M's has been played, so the primary ones to worry about are the F's, Y's, and L's. Here is where the inferences from his previous play become important. With a play like TOIT, Brian was probably holding all one pointers, likely with at least one more T, and possibly a duplicate I or O also. It seems very unlikely that he would have had an F or Y on his rack and played TOIT. (In fact, the Y is almost an impossibility, as he would likely have had good scoring plays making AWNY.)
Of all the hook letters he could have, the L is the most likely, especially with all four of them unseen, but it still didn't seem totally likely to me, as I imagined that if he had an L, he probably would have looked for plays that used it instead of one of the T's.
Of course, you're on dangerous ground relying too heavily on inferences when the opponent has just played four tiles, because any of those tiles that he might not have had previously could still have been picked up last turn.
But the other factor is that before OU this is a board where it is hard to score well on intermediate plays right now, but on which bingos can still go down: specifically on rows 2 and 3, to the R on row 5, and from the D on row 12. These kind of situations favor the player who is trailing, because they slow down the game while we each wind up for our next bingo. Rather than waiting for that to happen, I wanted to set myself up to start scoring well soon, by opening the line to the triple that I thought there was a decent chance I would get the first crack at. Also, I was a bit dissuaded from plays making EAU because of the fact that more A's had been played than O's, so I thought I was more likely to hit double O's if I kept EORS. Finally, with a decently bingo-ish but slightly too vowel heavy leave of AEERS, I wanted to keep the D open on row 12, because I thought that it might be one of my better spots to bingo if I didn't draw quite enough consonants.
>Brian_Bowman: ILOT 1F TOIL +15 114
#note Okay, so he did beat me to the spot, but the damage was minimal. Now I am faced with another very interesting decision.
>Dave_Koenig: AAEERRS G3 ERA +6 157
#note One turn ago I mentioned that there were more bingo lines open than could be controlled, but things have changed radically since then. With this play, I close down all the lanes except for row 12. Now I not only keep a great bingo leave, but I essentially force Brian to open up the board, giving me first crack at the bingo, unless he is lucky enough to have something off of the D right now.
>Brian_Bowman: GIN 10H ...ING +17 131
>Dave_Koenig: ACENRST N4 NECTARS +87 244
>Dave_Koenig: AAFIOPT (challenge) +5 249
#note Got a nickel when he challenged HEXINGS#
>Brian_Bowman: JKOY O1 JOKY +75 206
>Dave_Koenig: AAFIOPT 8L FI.T +33 282
#note With a blocked up board, it is preferable to take the points and take out this good scoring spot, rather than playing something that manages the rack better.
>Brian_Bowman: DEGLO 4B LODGE. +16 222
>Dave_Koenig: AABEIOP 3C BOA +24 306
#note I debated between this and ABO 3B. This has the downside of still allowing bingos from the L on row B, but they have to start with the L and will allow big comebacks. However, ABO seemed to me to have bigger downsides, both because it could allow higher scoring plays on row 2 and because it allowed for the possibility of high scoring B2-B6 plays which would open the A column.
>Brian_Bowman: RTY 13B TRY +22 244
>Dave_Koenig: ?ACEIOP B8 OPErA.IC +76 382
#note I was feeling the end-of-tournament fatigue at this point, and it took me a long time to find a bingo that fit. Fortunately, I still had plenty of time on my clock. POEMATIC# in the same spot would have been better. But the best option was DIASCOPE# 12H, so as not to open row 15.
>Brian_Bowman: OPQU 2A QUOP +41 285
>Dave_Koenig: ?AEGLUV A6 VALUE +36 418
#note How did I miss VAGUE here instead of VALUE? I would have preferred to take out the C on the bottom row, but I couldn't really do anything down there. And with me having the blank in hand, the risk wasn't too bad.
>Brian_Bowman: W 2N W. +10 295
>Dave_Koenig: ?AEFGNR 15A s.ARF +30 448
#note If I had played VAGUE, I would have had two bingos here: DEARNFUL#, which I knew, and CRANEFLY#, which I did not.
>Brian_Bowman: DDELMSU K2 MUDS +24 319
>Dave_Koenig: EGNN C6 ENG +9 457
>Brian_Bowman: DEL M10 .ELD +12 331
>Brian_Bowman: (N) +2 333
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