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#player1 Jeremy Jeremy
#player2 Dave Dave
>Jeremy: CFILSWZ 8G WIZ +30 30
#note Looks right. Though it leaves four consonants, they have mostly good synergy, and the SWIZ# hook is useful.
>Dave: AEIMNRU 9I AMU +18 18
#note Sheesh, I had URINEMIA. That's a bad miss. I've played that many times before.
>Jeremy: CCFILNS F6 FISC +33 63
#note Another strong play from Jeremy.
>Dave: DEINRTV K5 INTR.DE +32 50
#note Another subpar play. VENTURI was 8 points more and leaves a much stronger D instead of V.
>Jeremy: CDHLNST H8 .NCH +15 78
#note Jeremy mentioned after the game that he couldn't remember if LINCH# was good, which would have helpfully allowed him to shed another consonant. I like Quackle's suggestion of LIND# in this spot, both because the CHST leave looks stronger than DST and because it makes it easier to use his S on this board. On the flipside, it leaves me more unobstructed access to all the back hooks of INTRUDE.
>Dave: DEEEPRV E1 PREEVED +84 134
>Dave: DEEIOOO (challenge) +5 139
#note Ironically, if I had played the better VENTURI, I would not have bingoed here. Scrabble just isn't fair sometimes.
>Jeremy: ADELSTU L9 SALUTED +82 160
>Jeremy: ALNPRTY (challenge) +5 165
#note Jeremy points out that he missed the better bingo PULSATED. I insta-challenged NAMUS# and was surprised when it came back acceptable. It was phony in CSW07 but was added in the 2012 update.
>Dave: DEEIOOO 1E .OOED +24 163
#note Not much to think about here. EPODE for 3 points more is definitely not worth the worse leave.
>Jeremy: ALNPRTY 2B PAR.Y +49 214
#note Jeremy mentions that he hadn't learned PLENARTY# yet. I did know the word, but I hope I would have found it if I had been in his position. It's a close call between his play and PALTRY. Obviously PALTRY is more dangerous, but with both blanks unseen, turning over the extra tile is valuable. Also, PALTRY scores two more points and is less likely to have consonant trouble on the next turn, though the three consonant leave isn't too much to fret about because the bag is a bit vowel heavy. Note that PARRY isn't totally safe because of the front S hook.
>Dave: BEEIIOY 15G OBEYE. +36 199
#note Again an easy rack to play. This scores too much and takes out the best lane that it can't be passed up, despite the two I leave. If I were trailing by a *lot* and wanted to keep the triple-triple open, I would play YITIE 13J, but there's no need to roll the dice like that at this score.
>Jeremy: AAELNOT 6H NEO.ATAL +62 276
>Dave: ?GHIIJL 3A JIG +32 231
#note I didn't think of JILGIe#, which is my best blank-burner here, but I did debate between JIG and JILLs for a while. The point difference is just enough that there's a case for burning the blank, but the reason that I'm not crazy about it is that the board is still quite open for bingos.
>Jeremy: AINRRUU O1 URINA. +21 297
#note Quackle agrees. Tile turnover is very valuable here with the blanks still out there, and nothing else scores nearly as much.
>Dave: ?EHILQT 14F QI +33 264
#note There's a slight case to be made for sacrificing 9 points by playing QI at N3 to keep row 14 open for bingos, but it wasn't enough to persuade me to forgo the points.
>Jeremy: AMOORSU A3 .ORAMS +48 345
#note Jeremy wasn't sure enough of JORUMS to play it, but it's definitely the better play with the Q gone and the X still out there, as JORAMS gives the big spot at 6B.
>Dave: ?EHILNT B8 TINcHEL +74 338
#note I was so focused on T starting bingos that I never homed in on HOTLINE, which plays at B8 for 3 more points or B6 for 13 more points. They both create a dangerous spot at 12A though. I preferred this bingo to THEELIN because it's harder to play parallel to the L at A14 than the N. Also, I hoped that a CSW-only bingo would be more likely to get 5 more points. Jeremy held, but he did not challenge.
>Jeremy: AGOTUVX N1 GOX +38 383
>Dave: AEEKLOT 14I AKE. +41 379
#note Again a best play that wasn't very difficult. Nothing else scores as much nor balances the rack better.
>Jeremy: AFRTUVW A13 FAW +34 417
#note At first glance, I thought Jeremy's play made a lot of sense, as it scores well while keeping the board tight. With tempo in the endgame, he looks like a good shot to win. However, if Quackle's simulations are to be believed, the play is actually a major error. Quackle thinks he has only about a 44% chance to win after FAW, whereas his best play WHARF 12A gives him about a 69% chance. This was at first counterintuitive to me, as WHARF only scores two more points, but it dangles an R in the D column for potential bingos by me.
It took me some time to appreciate the reason why WHARF is better, but I think I understand now, though I admittedly have not reviewed logs from a sim.
The issue is that I have a strong tile pool remaining for bingos, and just enough spots to make them happen, if the N column is open *and* I am able to fish off a tile to create an opening in the D column.
The big problem with FAW is that it leaves two tiles in the bag, which from an endgame timing perspective is the ideal position for me trying to come back. It means that if I fish off a tile somewhere next to TINCHEL, the bag will still not be empty, so Jeremy won't be able to tell for sure where my potential bingos will land and he won't know which spot to block.
On the other hand, WHARF is better for a few reasons: (1) By leaving one in the bag, he assures that if I fish off a tile, he'll know exactly what I have, so I have less freedom to groom my rack. (2) Drawing the extra tile increases the chance significantly that he will be the one to get the final blank, which is the biggest determining factor in whether I will bingo. (3) The R which must be in fifth position for an eight letter bingo in the D column is actually a *less* dangerous lane than keeping the entirety of the lane open for my sevens, after I create the lane.
Basically, WHARF says to me, "you've got to bingo right now to win this game." Whereas FAW says, "you can win this game by bingoing right away, or I'm also giving you the opportunity to fish off a tile, when there's a good chance I won't be able to stop you from bingoing on the next turn."
>Dave: ?EILNOT 4C EL.cTION +70 449
#note I had plenty of time on my clock and convinced myself that he had no bingo on row N before playing this. If I had needed to, I would have played TAILbONE to block. (No worry about slotting the E, because he has no big consonant left to hit the O12 spot with.) But I was glad he couldn't bingo there, so I could take the higher scoring spot, for the exact reason you'll see in the game. Also, it's helpful that I can't get V stuck here because of VAE#, VOR#. If not for both of those, I might have had to keep the VAG# spot open.
>Jeremy: GORSTUV 13G GUVS +40 457
#note A very nice play gives Jeremy a temporary lead, but it's not enough.
>Dave: BI 3I BI +16 465
>Dave: (ORT) +6 471
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