| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Joel Joel
#player2 Josh Josh
>Joel: AERWX 8H REWAX +46 46
>Josh: BEIIJNO 7G JOB +32 32
#note I didn't consider not playing the J here. If I want to keep a balanced leave that is the choice to make, I imagine, with 9K BIO or 9J OBI. I also considered J6 JO(W) for 29, which seemed to improve my leave a little bit and maybe give less points back. But Joel could really have anything here. UU or RS; his range is huge. I guess in that case I needed to go for the points myself as well. I knew that I was already in a pretty harsh position here, but it's amazing that a simulation barely has me at 30% to win. I would love to draw a G!
>Joel: AYY 9G YAY +32 78
>Josh: EIIIKNN K5 INI. +8 40
#note I think I should have played L6 NI(X)IE. This board is going nowhere and I have a rather large deficit to fill. I didn't see NI(X)IE, most likely because I am not used to positions where I need to pry open the board above anything else. NI(X)IE gives me another shot at drawing a G, S or ?, but also makes it a bit more likely that Joel blocks REWAXING, in which case at least the board will be a bit more open. INI(A) doesn't really accomplish much except cutting Joel's score for next turn and keeping a balanced leave. KIN(A) in the same spots scores 16, leaves another duplicate I and increases Joel's score for next turn. (A)KIN gives much too much back to be considered over KIN(A), I'd say. I think I'll take INI(A) over KIN(A), but I also need some comeback prospects that don't include drawing a G, in which case I need to play NI(X)IE for 12.
I don't know how reliable a simulation here is, but NI(X)IE and INI(A) both have Joel at 15% to bingo next turn, but NI(X)IE increases Joel's avg score 4 points more than INI(A). INI(A) has a smaller standard deviation, which means that the end result of the game is less prone to fluctuation than the end result post-NI(X)IE, which isn't necessarily a good thing against someone of Joel's caliber, since he has an early lead on a closed board. Although I am more likely to bingo next turn after INI(A) than after NI(X)IE, it looks like the subsequent turns have me more likely to bingo after a board-opening play such as NI(X)IE, assuming Joel doesn't want an open board anyway.
So that's that turn! The two plays simulate withing a point of each other, NI(X)IE in the lead, for whatever that is worth.
>Joel: BO 6H BO +19 97
>Josh: EEGIKNT 8H .....ING +57 97
#note Joel, likely being less used to boards with not many viable options to choose from, took a very long time to play BO. Boy was the suspense heavy... I caught a break!
>Joel: ACLU J2 CAUL +14 111
>Josh: AEEFKTV N6 KE.AF +30 127
#note Looking back on this move, which I did a bit late, after I laid it down hastily and hit my clock, maybe I shouldn't have given Joel someplace to hook an S, the likes of which he must usually have on his rack at this point. But what else am I supposed to do? I considered 7M KEA, but what that leaves me with is pretty atrocious, and I also considered 10D FAVE or FAKE.
10D FAVE forks the board in a way that would suggest I felt like I was far from a favorite to win and needed to give myself many opportunities to remain in contention. I don't think that attitude is necessary at this point since the score is close and there's no telling how strong Joel's rack is. FAKE does the same thing a bit less well, given the possibility to underlap the K. L2 FAVE scores the same as 10D FAVE and seems to accomplish almost nothing besides blocking some 8s. KE(N)AF scores the best of all, blocks the N and the I as floaters but really just increases the value of the G as a lane, since IN(G) bingos are still available and GRA/GRE/GLA/GLE bingos are also still available. I think the points and relative defense of KE(N)AF makes it worthy, but the easy bingo lane it rewards is problematic. I am in no way in control of the game here, especially not of the board. I guess if I really felt like it was necessary to play KEA, I would have done it, since KEA does carry more defensive merit than any of the other plays mentioned, despite its rack leave going wrong a fair amount of the time.
>Joel: CEU L3 CUE +13 124
#note "CU later", Joel thought, after agonizing several minutes on his second CU set of the game.
>Josh: AEEOTTV M10 OVATE +21 148
#note It would seem like this is the right play. It rids the board of its premium S hook, which is pretty huge since I still don't have an S. It also takes no hook in TWL. I was iffy but aware that OVATE was possibly a verb in Collins, which I would be likely to have Joel punished for if he attempted OVATES# or OVATED#. The benefits of this play seem overwhelming, but still, I don't feel in good control of the board at the point where I played this. Joel has been spending a long time with his racks and scoring poorly, it seems something is up. Or maybe he's just having a bad rack day. We shall see.
>Joel: DGI N12 GID +21 145
#note This play didn't make me GIDDY! On the contrary, it allowed me to gain a good sense of control after the three floaters I had just opened were overlapped, leaving row 10 and column O as most likely victims of a bingo.
>Josh: ADEFPRT 3I F.R.ED +32 180
#note At the time though, I wasn't even aware of column O as IN(G)-happy. This play just happened to close that down! I wasn't entirely sure of FARCED's validity, but even if FARCING were invalid in TWL, FARCED could be an adjective and FARCING could be Collins-only, so it coming off the board is not surefire. This is why I played it, and also because it makes so much sense!
On another note, ADEPRT is quite the strong leave, and if I expect Joel to bingo very soon, keeping such a leave could be beneficial. Though I don't think speculation is necessary at this point, and given O1 being a threat, why risk less than a 50% shot at a bingo next turn? The sim agrees with the 50% number, but I'm going by the fact that drawing any vowel leads me to a bingo next turn that is almost certain to be playable. DIPTERA, PREDATE at 10A and READAPT(ED)/ READOPT(ED)/ DEPURAT(ED) at F14, not to mention other opportunities Joel may open up for me next turn.
I now feel like the steering wheel has been handed to me. Now all I need to do is steer correctly and make sure Joel doesn't steal the wheel from me! :)
>Joel: ?AEORST 10B REbATOS +72 217
#note hmm, maybe I already fell asleep at the wheel!
I held this because it looked unfamiliar, but let it go... whew! I didn't let Joel get into my head this time :P
>Josh: ANOPTTZ 14J ZON.. +35 215
#note Now that Joel is done running his clock down (something like 11:00 left at this point), and this presumably because he was holding the blank for a while, I feel like I need more than ever to take the time to find a good play, as earlier I didn't want to give him free time to think and therefore played a bit quickly.
Consequently to this desired change in tempo, or maybe just because it's a hard word to see, I miss TOPAZ in many spots. The two that seem to be the best are 9A TOPAZ and E7 TOP(A)Z. E7 doesn't open a lot of playback that would normally score more than 40 points ((ZA)P/G/S underlaps) and keeps a better leave than 9A. 9A scores more, blocks just about any 8 Joel can come up with and keeps the board strategically tight, which is probably a better bet for me against a bingo machine! But again, underlaps are quite problematic and even envelope words such as NI(ZA)M, and the score is close, too close, so I'm kind of in trouble in any case. Playing this wasn't a humongous mistake, but it seems like one as the leave is inferior, the defense too (on that note AZOT(ED) is way too risky), and even though it brings the scores close I have lost control of the game once again.
>Joel: AEGM 15G MEGA +32 249
>Josh: ?AIPTTU 11E TAU +18 233
#note The blank has arrived on my rack! I'm now feeling a bit better about my chances, but I blank and miss the two possible bingos here. I knew both of them. Here I started taking a really long time and failed to capitalize on my opportunity to take the lead.
>Joel: EILMOS 12A MOLIES +28 277
#note Whew, close to a bingo... If he had an E this seems like a decent enough play but if he had an S than LISSOME is his bingo.
>Josh: ?EIIPTT O10 TI +8 241
#note I spent some more time agonizing here. At least there was nothing playable this time. I almost played PITTIER*. I didn't want to close down any lanes at this point, nor did I want to give Joel any decent playback, which is why I chose against playing PIT anywhere. A12 (M)ITT also blocks a lane, and I want to maximize my bingo percentage here. But maybe I need to minimize his? He just played 6 tiles though... This might be a large mistake. Obviously O8 (G)IT is much better. I must have been so distracted to have missed that... It seems I'm making worse moves by the minute here, I'm swerving out of control...
>Joel: AEHILSW 14A SHAWLIE +84 361
>Joel: AEHILSW -- -84 277
>Josh: ?EEIPQT O5 QI +17 258
#note I had never seen SHAWLIE#, so it was an obvious challenge. I can't come back if it's valid. Especially with my Q draw.
>Joel: AEHILSW 14F HAW +26 303
#note WHA in the same spot seems better, but maybe he wants scoring spots for himself. AWHILE seems like a better play as well.
>Josh: ?EEHLPT 13G HEP +33 291
#note I missed B3 PLEaTHE(R) this time, but this is probably better
>Joel: EILRS A12 .ERL +18 321
#note Joel played this rather quickly. I wonder what that means.
>Josh: ?ELORTT C3 TOLERaT. +68 359
#note Now here, for some reason, I didn't think it made much of a difference if there were other bingos that played here, except 10s with (ATE), which I looked for. I knew the score would be the same regardless, but why did I stop looking? This is the worst bingo to play. ROULETTE and REBOTTLE are both much better than this, not only because of the reduced bingo % for Joel slotting an O or an E in 3rd position on 4C, but also because of scoring opportunities Joel doesn't have if I don't put a vowel at C8.
>Joel: INP D4 PIN +22 343
#note Joel was very low on time when he made this play.
>Josh: DEINOSV E3 VENDS +33 392
#note I took the time I had left to track, and I put him as having DORNS probably after misreading my own handwriting. But I had time to find a better play. I guess I saw that this won and played it. This is 8 points worse than M2 DIN.
>Joel: DNRSU M2 R.NDS +20 363
#note OI, I started off relatively strong and then fell off later on. I'm not too proud of this game.
#rack2 IO
|
