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#player1 Ed_Cunningham Ed Cunningham
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Ed_Cunningham: AHKN H7 HANK +22 22
#note Round 7. This was the last game on day 1, which had not gone well. I was 2-4, and in two games against the lower end of the field, Quackle confirms that, for the most part, my tiles had given me no margin for being human while my opponents were immune to negative consequences of obvious mistakes such as having phonies challenged off the board or playing a top 500 probability bingo for 60 when an obvious 75-point play was available elsewhere. My round 6 game, in particular, had caused me to cross Caro's Misery Threshold, and even though I had taken 10 minutes afterwards to try to calm myself down, I probably wasn't in the best state of mind to be in yet another grinder of a game.
>Jim_Burlant: AILNPUY 11H YAUP +33 33
#note Strong choice but not best. 11C PUNILY (which I never thought of) is a little better here.
>Ed_Cunningham: ADEOVW I3 AVOWED +24 46
>Jim_Burlant: FILNOOT H1 OFT +20 53
#note The only 8 I saw in this was FOOTLING (that's all there is) and it's a no-go. As for plays that *can* be made, it's this, J5 FON (I didn't like it because of the 5 unseen T's and easy plays still available at H1), J6 ONO, and this. FON stands out at the top of the sim, probably because it scores 26 where everything else scores like this does. This is a 5-1/2 point dog in the sim and it wins 44-1/2%. J5 FON wins roughly 46%.
>Ed_Cunningham: ACM 12J MAC +22 68
>Jim_Burlant: IILNOWX 4I .IOLIN +18 71
#note Getting late in the day and these aren't the easiest racks to deal with. I didn't see 3F OXTAIL, and my problem with the rest of the options (J6 OW, J6 OX) was not only the board position, but the duplicated I's in the leave. My idea here was to clear the rack, try for an A or, even better, a 5-letter WAX word (WAXED, etc.) down the M column on the next turn. This sims well down the list but if you look at the numbers (both winning percentage and valuation), nothing really stands out. Best is apparenly J5 NOW for 26, which wins 41.7%. This wins 40.25 and sims not quite 3 points down.
>Ed_Cunningham: JLL M3 J.LL +22 90
>Jim_Burlant: EEFRUWX M9 FEWER +38 109
#note Always a bad sign - two E's in my rack and I can't hold either one. At least I finally got a play right. This scores nicely, breaks up the toxic UW combination, and best of all, it sets me up for an easy X play on my next turn. Q agrees with me - this is definitely best, and it's 53% to win.
>Ed_Cunningham: AEGN N8 GANE +21 111
>Jim_Burlant: ?BIRUXY K3 B.XY +32 141
#note How does the saying go? Find a good play, look for a better one? This is the auto-pilot play, and that's what I did here. This is my second best choice, and it's a good play. The better one would have been to take 68 points with eXURB O11, and that makes sense. This board is not good for bingoes and 68 for eXURB make it a bingo equivalent. And the B sitting at O15 isn't exactly much of a bingo threat. I never looked for it. I'm still in good shape, though - 67% to win. eXURB wins 75 and sims 15 points better.
>Ed_Cunningham: ENNO O6 NEON +27 138
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIIPRU 9E RUI. +5 146
#note Too bad there was no open E or D - PRIEDIEU would have been a sweet play. One problem I continually had on day 1 was that it felt like I couldn't make it through any game without having at least two turns where I was playing for chump change, and all I could think was, "here we go again." No bingoes play. In possession of the blank, my play here is to open up. My best "scoring" option is PI G8 which scores 14 and is too easy for him to block. With 4 R's and a bunch of E's and A's still unseen, the R can be sacrificed. I wasn't too concerned about his hitting sat 8A because, if he did hit, he'd still open some nice lines for me. Granted, GRAZE could hurt but short of that, most of his plays won't score anywhere near enough to counter my probable replies. Q confirms: this is best, and 2G IF is also a good choice.
>Ed_Cunningham: AQST O1 QATS +53 191
#note Ouch!
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIMPTT O11 TEMPI +36 182
#note This rack makes no 7's and the only 8's are EMPTIEST (saw it, doesn't play), TEMPTING (saw it, doesn't play) and IMPOTENT (plays on row 1 for 62, whiffed on it). That said, the bingo is not best here. Q indicates this is the correct play, and it wins 48%. The bingo wins 3% less often and is a 4-point dog. Given that this play scores 36 and preserves the blank, the bingo would have had to score 67 or more to justify putting it down. 50% to win.
>Ed_Cunningham: BE N2 BE. +28 219
>Jim_Burlant: ?AINTTV G5 VAT +14 196
#note The only 7's in this rack are VATTING (no-go) and TANTIVY (didn't know it and it's also a no-go). The only 8's are VOLITANT (saw it, no-go), NATIVIST (no-go), VISITANT (didn't know it, and it doesn't play), NATIVITY (didn't see it, doesn't play). This is where the late hour (approaching 7 pm) and difficulties of the day affected my play. I was getting frustrated by having to blow racks apart every time I saw a handful of bingo prone tiles. With the possibility of keeping INT? together, I didn't look for any good plays. I figured he'd open for 21 - 24 at 8A and I'd bingo back through the openings. The play should have been obvious, as I really needed to take 29 points with VITTA at 8A. This is pitiful. Fortunately I don't get burned for this. 42% to win; VITTA wins 55.
>Ed_Cunningham: OOT N13 OOT +21 240
>Jim_Burlant: ?DGINST E7 ST.INGeD +68 264
#note I finally hit the bingo, but geez - Pat, can I buy a vowel? Where are the A's and E's? This is best and it's 54% to win.
>Ed_Cunningham: EILR 8A RELI. +18 258
>Jim_Burlant: DEGIIRS 12C IG. +10 274
#note Decision time. I don't have any bingoes in this rack (this needs an N or an open T). Chasing a blank with something like RIDGE(L) occurred to me, but there are too many open lanes where he can still hit, and DEIRS struck me as too good to blow apart given the pool. Plays like GIDDIER on row 14 drew my attention but if I don't draw one of ?Z and he hits with something like HEEZE or even SEIZE, I may be dead. I figured I might as well fish, and see what happens. The sim says GIDDIER is best, and this, GIG, and the other placement of IGG are indistinguishable from each other in second, 3rd, and 4th places in the sim. 58% to win; GIDDIER ostensibly wins 64%, but that number may drop if he has the Z and/or the blank.
>Ed_Cunningham: EHO G1 HOE +21 279
>Jim_Burlant: DEIORRS 15L RO.. +5 279
#note Sad but true: I saw DISORDER as a possible bingo but got frustrated when I saw that it didn't fit at 14A, and I didn't look hard enough at the board here. Coming at the end of what had been yet another frustrating, difficult game, I just gave up and looked to fish out of frustration. DISORDER plays at 14E for 66 points. The consolation I can take: against his next rack, the only difference is that bingo loses by 70 fewer points.
>Ed_Cunningham: ?ADEIRZ B2 REAlIZ.D +88 367
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIRSU 14B RAI.S +16 295
#note Final score recorded as 389-294. The plays I have to look at on my end were VIOLIN and VAT. VIOLIN was a bit risky, and I got burned for that. Maybe missing eXURB in favor of BOXY as well; while it's never horrible to play for 32 keeping a blank when your only option with the blank scores 68, burning the blank might have kept the frustration factor from kicking in when the bingo didn't come easily in the next couple of turns. Missing points with VITTA wasn't good, either. While missing DISORDER was inexcusable, that's not where I lost the win. VIOLIN and maybe VAT were the culprits.
>Ed_Cunningham: CESU 4A C.USE +20 387
>Ed_Cunningham: (DEU) +8 395
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