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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Orry_Swift Orry Swift
>Jim_Burlant: IIORTTW 8G WIT +12 12
#note This position came down to either 8F TWIT or this. I normally don't like leaving high probability hooks open, but the IOR leave with TWIT was a hair too unbalanced for my liking. So, even though this gives up E back hooks, this was my choice. Q agrees - this is best. TWIT scores 2 more but sims 3 points down and wins 1% less often.
>Orry_Swift: DDEOT 7F DOTED +20 20
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIORR 6F OR +15 27
#note If he'd floated the D's where they could have been played through, I'd be playing ADROITER and might be off to the races. Instead, he's rendered my rack inert. Q says I should play 6E OAR for 1 more to open things up a little more. While this is one of the two best plays I have, in light of how the game panned out, OAR may have been a hair better in retrospect.
>Orry_Swift: EFN 6I FEN +19 39
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEIRT 5J TEE +14 41
#note No good options with this rack, and this is another position that comes down to which flavor of suck I can deal with. AERIE would normally be the ideal play out of this rack but the only places to play it give up way too much in board position for not a whole lot of score. I didn't like TEE on row 9 because of potential F, M, and H comebacks, (and let's not even think about possible cheap X bombs). Hence, this. Q agrees - this is best. 43% to win.
>Orry_Swift: ENPT 5D PENT +23 62
>Jim_Burlant: AEIILOR 4L OI +8 49
#note Yet another inert rack. I didn't like this play a whle lot when I put it down but didn't see much else that I did like. I saw OILIER M3 to dump the rack but (a) second-guessed myself on whether TEE took the back L (it does) and (b) didn't like the easy plays like FLEW, CLEW, etc. it gave back at 8L. The sim indicates I needed to give up my aversion to row 9 here, indicating that AIOLI 9I was the play. M2 AIOLI is also good, though it was a non starter for me because of my uncertainty of the (TEE)L hook. This is a 4-point dog in the sim and it wins 38-1/2%. AIOLI wins just shy of 40.
>Orry_Swift: HNT 3K NTH +25 87
>Jim_Burlant: AEILLRU 4A LIEU +18 67
#note I didn't like my odds on a closed board given my 38-point deficit, so I felt it was time to string it open. This is a strong choice, though it's a hair shy of best. Best per the duck is D5 PULI, which wins 30.9%. LEU 9H scores 15 and is also strong. This is the bronze medalist, winning 30.3 and simming 1.4 points down on PULI. If I had this one to do again, LEU 9H looks best. Fortunately I don't get punished for this. Orry isn't exactly lighting it up himself, as he's barely averaging 21-22 a turn; that's the only thing keeping me in this game. While I've been playing reasonably well albeit imperfectly, my tiles haven't been helping me at all. And I was getting concerned about one more thing: you'll notice that, other than the W on my opening rack, I haven't drawn anything other than one-point tiles. I needed to bingo sooner than later, but I knew I was due to get slammed with counters some time in the next couple of turns.
>Orry_Swift: ADNOR 3B ANDRO +24 111
#note Play incorrectly scored as 26.
>Jim_Burlant: AADGILR A4 .AIRD +18 85
#note This isn't even one of the original choices, and while it leaves me addled with the dreaded N-less G, it also winds up being the strongest play I can make. It outscores almost everything else I have and it opens the board up so it can't be shut down. That this play tops a sim is more of a reflection of how lame my options are yet again. The only other options worth consideration are 9I plays like AG and LAG 9H. 25.8% to win. Where are the counters?
>Orry_Swift: LV B2 V..L +16 127
#note I don't know his rack but Orry is in the driver's seat, as he's 63% to win with this.
>Jim_Burlant: ABGHJKL 2F JAB +53 138
#note What was I saying about getting slammed with counters? Anyway, what is impressive is how bad this play is. I saw this rack and lamented to myself that I really needed the C for JACK. I had obsessed about the J spot after he put down ANDRO and the only debate I had here was whether to play JAG or JAB. So what's wrong with taking 53 points? Only that I never noticed the front hook to VAIL. Not seeing that hook meant that I whiffed on 1A BALK and LAKH which are vastly superior plays for several reasons. Not only do they score identically to this, but they clear out more of the clunk, they don't give back any of the ridiculously easy 1H plays JAG/JAB do, and they both keep the J for a huge play on row 2. The 1A plays win 49%; this wins 39. If I was going to play on row 2, JAG would have been a hair better so as to give back 3 fewer points if he had an A (all too likely given that 6 are unseen). While this is an easy mistake for most humans to make, it is still just godawful play on my end. This misfire made the late game much tougher than it otherwise might have been, with bad consequences.
>Orry_Swift: APX 1G PAX +52 179
#note Just desserts.
>Jim_Burlant: CGHKLTZ -GKLTZ +0 138
#note Yikes! Q agrees that it's right to exchange but totally disagrees with this particular exchange. Completely blind to the VAIL front hook, I incorrectly felt that the Z was useless on this board and therefore felt my best course was to keep CH and look for a blank. Q says I should exchange 6 and keep the Z, presumably because it expects me to draw an A for an easy 1A play. 19% to win.
>Orry_Swift: AW 3H AW +14 193
#note I don't know his rack for sure, but I wonder if Orry missed the VAIL front hook as well given this rack fragment.
>Jim_Burlant: CEGHNOS 2M COG +20 158
#note Yet another rack where nothing scores. This is best. And maybe if I'm really lucky, he won't have the A he needs to defend O1? 21% to win. If I'd made the correct play two turns ago, that number would probably be in the 40's.
>Orry_Swift: AY 1N YA +29 222
>Jim_Burlant: EFHNSUV -FHUV +0 158
#note Yuck. Truth be told I saw yet another ridiculous rack and autopiloted the exchange as I was tired of dealing with these counter overloads, which I often have a very difficult time processing. The sim indicates that it's not necessary to exchange in the strictest sense. Looking at the choices the only scoring option I have that looks half decent is NEVUS 9H for 20. But burning ES and keeping FH for only 20 points doesn't exactly inspire me. This gives up a bit of equity but I think I need a miracle and I don't think keeping FH isn't going to get me there. I threw the H back in because I was looking for the extra turnover with both blanks unseen, so keeping ENS seemed like a reasonable compromise.
>Orry_Swift: BOSTU 9C BOUTS +20 242
>Jim_Burlant: EEENRSZ 9I SNEEZER +85 243
#note Awesome draw!!!!! This is my only bingo and it's 43% to win in a short sim.
>Orry_Swift: EEGK O8 G.EEK +45 287
>Jim_Burlant: ?AAIORV M9 .OARIA +30 273
#note Spent a long time here - none of the bingoes play. ABOUTS* was a non-starter and I was still blind to the 1A hook, so that meant I never saw VARIA. If I had to miss the best play, this was a good turn to do it as you'll see in a second. Ultimately I decided that, in possession of a blank, I should string it open. Maybe he can't do anything about the L hook on row 15? As for the sim - if you whiff on the 1A plays (VAIR, VARIA, VARA) like I did, this is your next best play.
>Orry_Swift: AILQSUY 14K QU.Y +32 319
#note Good thing I missed - this was his actual rack, and ZOARIA blocked QUEASILY. Blanks or not, QUEASILY for 92 would have ended this game for me in a hurry.
>Jim_Burlant: ??EIMUV 15J VIM +29 302
#note Spent a LONG time here - again, no bingoes play. I saw ELUVIUM and AMUSIVE no-goes, and lamented that I had not drawn an L or A instead of a U for MOVIEOLA. While MOVIE D8 would have done a better job cleaning the rack, I didn't like what it did to the board. If I'd been awake and noticed the A front hook to VAIL, splitting the blanks with MaUVE would have been the play. If you whiff on the 1A plays and don't like MOVIE, this is all that's left. 52% to win.
>Orry_Swift: HS O14 SH +32 351
>Jim_Burlant: ??EFILU D7 bI.FUELs +70 372
#note Having burned a lot of time trying to find the bingoes that weren't there on my previous turns, I was under two minutes at the beginning of this turn. And this was where having two blanks in the rack was as much of an albatross as it was an asset, as there were way too many choices with nowhere near enough time to weigh them all. Looking at this pool, what's the threat? A 7 like ORIGAMI? GARLICS? An 8? I initially put down FUSILIER on row 12, but then saw 8's like RAMBLING that had to be blocked. Upon quick inspection I didn't see anything right through the E I was going to float (I never recognized CREMAINS), as I didn't have enough time to really think this through, so I put this down. If he's got an 8, he's got an 8, or so went my thinking. In retrospect I sure wish I'd stuck to my original play.
>Orry_Swift: ACGILRS 11C S.RGICAL +72 423
#note <> Maybe this turns out differently if I don't keep whiffing on the A front hook to VAIL. While missing VARIA in favor of ZOARIA benefitted me, the rest of the times I missed that hook definitely hurt me, and put me in the position where I had to guess to win the game. I just didn't handle the third quarter of this game effectively enough.
>Orry_Swift: (IMNO) +12 435
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