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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Orry_Swift Orry Swift
>Jim_Burlant: DEILRUX 8H LUREX +40 40
#note I more or less put this down on autopilot. The sim indicates that I should have played REDUX instead of this, but the difference is nominal: REDUX is best, winning 1/4% more often and simming 0.5 points ahead at almost 1100 iterations.
>Orry_Swift: ABF 7K FAB +25 25
>Jim_Burlant: DEIINNT 9K DENI +23 63
#note The problem with the fishes like IN 9H is that they don't score and DEINT is decent, but not great, on this board because the only bingo line opening up if I don't have an S is going to be row 10, which will only score in the mid 60's unless I hit something tripling a counter. This scores 23 and leaves a reasonably promising INT. To really hurt me he has to have either something hooking an M, or IQ in his rack. If he doesn't have that, he can't do much to me with this. Hence, my choice. This is best, and I'm still more or less treading water in the sim's eyes at 61% to win.
>Orry_Swift: AELOSV N2 LOAVES +31 56
>Jim_Burlant: IINNOTY O1 TINY +46 109
#note Clearly best - the only other play that scores more than 31 is TONY in this same spot and the INO leave with this choice is much cleaner than the IIN leave of TONY. This was autopilot. 67% to win.
>Orry_Swift: RT 4L TR.. +14 70
>Jim_Burlant: EEIIJNO 9F JOIN +18 127
#note JIN 9G scores 24 while this only scores 18. But, with this rack containing so many vowels, I need to unload the extra vowel to give myself a better chance of keeping the tiles turning on my next turn. Also, JIN gives back a front D hook that there's no reason for me to open up. Quackle agrees - this is best, winning just shy of 66%. JIN 9G wins not quite 65 and sims a little more than 2 points down.
>Orry_Swift: HM O8 HM +29 99
>Jim_Burlant: EEIIUWW -EIIUWW +0 127
#note Yuck. My personal rule of thumb is that, if I can play off 4 tiles and unload one of the offenders that has to go while I'm doing it, I'll play through. In this position, the only non-exchange I saw that was even worth considering was NEWIE M10. While it does unload a W and my duplicated E's, that's about the only good thing about it. It only scores 16, plays off both my E's, and leaves a rancid IUW. And, right now Orry is trailing and he doesn't have much to work with on this board as his only bingo lines are rows 3 and 5 and they're not the easiest to hit. NEWIE opens up all sorts of lines for him and throws him a lifeline. If NEWIE scored 26 I'd play through, but I couldn't wrap my arms around all those negatives for only 16 scoreboard points. 56% to win with this, the best exchange. Exchanging all 7 is very reasonable as well, presumably for the extra turnover to chase one of the blanks. For reference, NEWIE wins 4% less often and sims 6 points down.
>Orry_Swift: GNY I7 G..NY +11 110
>Jim_Burlant: AEGGHLO 11I .OGH +22 149
#note I thought he might have been trying to set up something like AZOLE or AZINE and blocking that was my first priority. Q agrees - this is best. 64% to win.
>Orry_Swift: ?EIMRST 5F MaESTRI +68 178
#note His other bingo options are air balls on 3F (TRISeME, TRISoME, MISrATE, SMaRTIE) but this scores 68. Q says he should forego the bingo and play 12L MI, for 22, saying that this choice wins 1-1/2% less often. My guess is that Q thinks the board position is a little too dangerous for him (my comeback play would suggest that's the case). That said, I don't see how he can turn down the points here. The board is not alive, and it's doubtful I'm going to do much to open the board up. And the wrong draw may result in his sitting on that blank for 4 more turns.
>Jim_Burlant: AEGLRVZ H1 GLAZ. +75 224
#note In Orry's previous game, he had put down a beautiful natural SAPPH(I)RE B7, only to watch his opponent come back with AZO A7 for a bunch. I know that Orry had to be feeling that, as Yogi Berra would have said, "it was like deja vu all over again." GLAZER scores 3 more but there are only 2 R's unseen so I'm going to treat my R like it's an endangered species. Q agrees - this is best. I'm 69% and change to win.
>Orry_Swift: ACEIU 2E ACU.EI +16 194
>Jim_Burlant: EIOOPRV 12J POOVE +37 261
#note Orry: "37 points for that collection of letters?!?" Kinda tells you the game I was having. This is clearly best, and it's 83% to win. Next best options are 6E VIER and 12J POI, and they win 5% less often and sim more than10 points down.
>Orry_Swift: ADDO 10C DADO +19 213
>Jim_Burlant: EEINRTU C3 REUNITE. +72 333
#note Or RETINUED. Just shy of 99% to win.
>Orry_Swift: IIT 8A TI.I +15 228
>Jim_Burlant: COPQRSW 7B Q. +22 355
#note I saw O12 SCOW but felt it didn't defend the right spot. While he can score 40 there, that won't get him back into the game. A bingo ending in EST, on the other hand, will and I wanted to defend against that. The sim takes a while to sort out. While this concedes roughly 10 points of equity to plays like SCOW and SWOP O12, this also wins more often than anything else. It's best.
>Orry_Swift: ?ABERTU A8 .ABoURET +80 308
#note Any number of row 13 bingoes available for Orry (ARBUTES, ABUTTER, BURSATE), but those score between 64 and 70 while this scores 80. This is clearly best but he's still only 3% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: ACOPRSW O12 SCOW +42 397
#note I've often said facetiously that, even if the bag were down to 6 and there were 4 C's unseen, Quackle would still want me to keep the C. That said, as good of a tile as it is, late in a game I'll want to unload that before some of the other 3-pointers because it's not as flexible for tight boards and end games. This is another instance in which the best play (this) concedes a little equity to other choices but wins more often than anything else.
>Orry_Swift: OW 11E OW +29 337
>Jim_Burlant: AAAENPR 13G APNEA +18 415
#note Against a random rack Q says I need to look to score with 1A AREPA/APNEA. However, a look at the pool shows DEFILES is still a threat, and I can't let him bingo out with that. Simmed against a possible DEFILES, this rockets to the top of the sim.
>Orry_Swift: DEEFKLS 12D DESK +42 379
>Jim_Burlant: AIR M12 .AIR +14 429
#note Aw, snap! I've conceded 0.5 equity to this point and I make a 14-point mistake on my last turn? At least if I was going to make this kind of mistake, this was the time to do it. AIR plays at 6F for 28.
>Jim_Burlant: (EFL) +12 441
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