| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Paul_Holser Paul Holser
>Jim_Burlant: DGGJPSU 8G JUG +22 22
>Paul_Holser: ORT 9F ROT +16 16
>Jim_Burlant: DEGLPSX 10G GELD +24 46
#note I considered J8 SEX and this. SEX scores 38 to this play's 24, but besides the leave, what swayed me was his previous play. If he's got another T in his rack, SEX gives him a potentially huge back hook while I'm still saddled with DGLP. This sets up the S hook and unloads the extra tile. Q agrees - this is best. 60% to win, but not for long.
>Paul_Holser: AEERRTT E5 TREATER +82 98
#note Best bingo for Paul - his only other options are this word's anagram for 68 points while this scores 82.
>Jim_Burlant: DEPSTVX D10 DEX +27 73
#note I realized the defensive liabilities of this play (easy points at C11 if he has FHP in his rack, or on row 13 if he had a Y) but compared to the rest of the options, I felt like I couldn't justify giving up at least 8 scoreboard points on yet another turn now that I was trailing by 52 points. This scores 27, D10 DEV scores 19, and J5 DEVS scores 22. 8A VESTA and DEVS do the best job of clearing the clunk, but S is reasonably good on this board and I don't want to part with it. Best per the duck is 7D VEX, with 7B VEXED also simming very well. This wins 2-1/2% less often and sims almost 7 points down despite the superior score.
>Paul_Holser: EWY 13C WYE +33 131
>Jim_Burlant: EPPSTUV 6C PE.V +17 90
#note I figured this was the best compromise I could find between score (8A STUPA scores 30 but I never saw it) and leave (the U is not ideal to keep but it does blend well with the P). It takes the sim a while to sort out, but this position ultimately comes down to stylistic preference. 11C PERV, this, and I6 VUG all win within 1/4% of each other and sim within 0.4 points at the very top of the sim. 24.75% to win.
>Paul_Holser: IKS J6 KIS +29 160
>Jim_Burlant: IOPRSTU C11 PO. +22 112
#note It's either this or 8A PRUTA, and the sim likes this a hair better. 22.3% to win.
>Paul_Holser: AINY K4 AYIN +22 182
>Jim_Burlant: HILRSTU L1 HURL +26 138
#note Saw UROLITHS and LUTHIERS but they don't play and gave up looking for something else after a couple of minutes. Turns out there is nothing else and this rack makes no 7's. I saw this, saw the 26 points and IST leave, and put this down. I don't buy the sim on this one. There are two plays that sim above this: D1 LUTHIER and 3I HILUS. In both of those cases, my opponent bingoes less often and has stronger comeback plays. And the sim indicates I bingo more often with HURL than with the other options. LUTHIER scores identically to this and HILUS scores 6 more, though it burns the S and blows the rack apart. I could see the better winning percentage if opponent comeback plays were higher and my bingo percentage was lower, but the details just don't support the sim conclusion here. I'd make this play again.
>Paul_Holser: AEZ 1L .AZE +48 230
>Jim_Burlant: EILOOST K9 OSTIOLE +71 209
#note If I were about to go up by 50 or 60 points I'd definitely err on the side of caution with L7 STOOLIE. But even after my bingo, I'm still trailing by 21 points before Paul's comeback. I need the open board to create opportunities. Quackle agrees with me - this is best, and it's 27% to win. STOOLIE only scores 2 fewer points but it wins 2% less often.
>Paul_Holser: AFIT L12 FIAT +33 263
>Jim_Burlant: ACMNORS C2 CRAM.ONS +82 291
#note Luck box!!!! MACRONS plays at M6 for 69, and this scores 82. 'Nuff said. 55% to win.
>Paul_Holser: DDIIO 13G OIDI..D +24 287
#note Beautiful play!!!!
>Jim_Burlant: BEFIMNU 15H FUM.. +30 321
#note I saw this, saw 30 points, BEIN leave (easily the best fragment I could leave myself out of this rack), and that was that. Quackle agrees, and thinks this is best. That said, N1 ZEBU is an intriguing choice. Besides scoring 32 points to this play's 30, it defends against an easy AN 2N 28 (a high probability given the unseen AAAANNN). And, if I'm not playing to hit another bingo, it sets me up for any number of plays of at least 40 points on my next turn at O4 (MAFIA, MAVIN, etc.). While this is a strong play and definitely best, given how the game panned out I certainly wish I'd played ZEBU looking back.
>Paul_Holser: ??AABOV N7 lAVABOs +71 358
>Paul_Holser: ??AABOV -- -71 287
>Jim_Burlant: ABEEINN M1 .NE +12 333
#note If I play ZEBU on the previous turn, I challenge his phony off and make a cheap blocking play out of my rack of AEFIMNN (something like EN D3 works in that situation) since he won't have any playable 7's. And, I avoid the opportunities for error I had on this turn. As big as his mistake was, my play is even worse because my thought process goes all wrong. What I should have done was alphagram his rack and recognize that BrAVAdO was also possible, which meant that he had BRAVADOS on row 3 as well as BRAVADO. Instead, I was fixated on blocking LAVABOS, which this does accomplish. But I gave up way too much on the scoreboard and also burned a lot of time. Given that he has bingoes all over the board, the best I can do here is simply max out the points and still be in the game once he hits on the next turn. I should have played what I was going to put down before he tried hooking OIDIOID: BUNA 2K which, when simmed against AABOV??, is the best play I can make. Given his rack, even if I made the right play here, this was going to come down to a tight end game. This blunder threw the game away.
>Paul_Holser: ??AABOV 3B B.AVAdOs +61 348
>Jim_Burlant: ABEGILN H1 GL.BE +33 366
#note This isn't even one of the original choices (how is that possible?). I wasn't worried about bingoing inasmuch as I was putting some points on the board and forcing an end game. Q still likes BUNA here, but I don't think the balanced EGILN leave is going to help me much since, if I put down BUNA, I've guaranteed I can't bingo. I was also worried about his hitting something like CHOW H1. An interesting option I never saw was 2F BE - takes away most of his easy plays and leaves me a nice AGILN which he may not be able to do much about.
>Paul_Holser: HII 2F HI.I +30 378
>Jim_Burlant: AINNNSU G12 N. +2 368
#note I burned my clock down to less than 30 seconds on this turn. I looked at the pool and, given how inert this rack was, I drew the conclusion that the only way I could win was with a Q stick since I had the S and the U. I only played 1 tile here so as to not empty the bag. Quackle says that I screwed the pooch here and that I didn't need to do that. Q says that I win 58% of the time if I play NAAN 4A. I don't know if I see the win the way Q does (It assumes I'm drawing the Q in that scenario), but NAAN would have prevented this:
>Paul_Holser: ACEOQTW D3 .WE. +29 407
#note Damn. Now I have to hope he doesn't have a 2K play.
>Jim_Burlant: AINNQSU 14A QIS +33 401
>Paul_Holser: ACEORT 2K T..A +30 437
#note ...and he has a 2K play. I'm toast.
>Jim_Burlant: ANNU L7 NAN +9 410
>Paul_Holser: CEOR 8L .RCO +18 455
>Jim_Burlant: U 12F U. +2 412
#note Time on my clock when UN went down: 00:00. I feel like I played very well until I challenged the phony off. I completely lost the plot at that point and didn't leave myself enough time to think the late game through correctly. This one was certainly lost by me, not my tiles.
>Jim_Burlant: (E) +2 414
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