| Player 1 |
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#player1 Dave_Koenig Dave Koenig
#player2 Evans_Clinchy Evans Clinchy
>Dave_Koenig: DEEJORX 8H REDOX +42 42
>Evans_Clinchy: DISTTUW 9K WUD +23 23
>Dave_Koenig: AEEIIJY 7G JAY +36 78
#note DK: This is a very interesting moment. It's one of those times when you can't trade because the scoring alternatives are too good, but you're pretty much doomed to have a subpar rack on the next turn. Three plays here are clearly better than the alternatives: JAY, which I played; DEEJAY, which I thought about immediately after I pressed my clock (and was kicking myself for rushing the play); and YOWIE, which I didn't think of. DEEJAY has a lot of things which are strategically undesirable about it: it rips open the board, radically increasing the opponent's scoring chances on the next turn, by giving S hooks to row 15, parallel plays on column N, and letters to bingo through. JAY, on the other hand, is the kind of play you often want to make when you're going to be stuck with a bad rack. It takes out some of the few hot spots available, closes up the board and slows down the game, giving you a bit more time to untangle from the bad rack. All that being said, DEEJAY is the better play here, and the reason is that the EEII leave is *so* much worse than the II one. With EEII, I am almost sure to have to trade on the next turn, whereas with II, there's a better chance for the rack to recover, (though II is obviously not a great leave either.) YOWIE is a middling play which does a better job of cleaning up the rack than the other two, but it sacrifices quite a few points in the process and doesn't really leave a bright future for the J. The best you can hope for after YOWIE is that the opponent makes a play that gives you something good to do with the J. I simmed this a few times, and DEEJAY came out about 2.5 points ahead of JAY on average, which makes sense to me, and YOWIE was just a tiny bit behind JAY. DEEJAY is my preferred way of playing here, but JAY is not too far back because of the deficiencies with DEEJAY.
>Evans_Clinchy: CINSSTT K7 T..NS +16 39
>Dave_Koenig: EEEEEII -EEEEII +0 78
#note DK: Yes, I drew three more E's to EEII and ended up with one of the worst racks I've ever had in a Scrabble game. At this point, I was sure that JAY worked out better for me than DEEJAY would have, because with such a bad draw, I surely would have had to trade even after DEEJAY, and also because his move telegraphs that he was holding multiple S's, which increases the chance that DEEJAY would have been punished even worse. So even though DEEJAY is the better play on average, in this particular situation, JAY worked out better.
>Evans_Clinchy: ACIRSTT N8 ASTRICT +80 119
>Dave_Koenig: AABEILO O3 OBELIA +39 117
>Evans_Clinchy: ??CNORR 15H RaNCORs +83 202
#note DK: Evans first laid down CORNERS in the same spot, and then he found this, his highest scoring play, for three more points. I think his choice is fairly telling of his style, but I think it's likely I would have chosen the other one. Evans likes to have the board open and is very good at finding bingos. He would rather take more points now, knowing that he doesn't have a safe lead, as I could still bingo back on rows 5, 9, 10, or 11, even if he played the more defensive CORNERS. While I think this is a completely reasonable way of playing, there's something about this board shape and the particular game situation that makes CORNERS appealing to me. Although I will still have bingo chances on this turn, I've also just turned over six tiles and haven't had chances to groom my rack for a bingo yet. Also, it is quite feasible that after just two more turns or so by each of us, things could get very blocked up. We're likely to see a play down the N column parallel to OBELIA which will both kill the LOBELIA hook and kill row 5 bingos. And after a short play on row 9 under AR/YE, and possibly another underlapping it on row 10, it's quite feasible that the board will be close to impossible to bingo on if he plays CORNERS. Note that CORNERS does give the front S hook, but that does not immediately increase my bingo chances, because S ending bingos already fit on row 9, and with a row 9 underlap likely coming soon, the SCORNERS spot isn't likely to stay open for bingos long anyway. Evans is in the driver's seat no matter which way he plays here, but I think that CORNERS has the greater chance of shutting the board down faster and cutting down my comeback chances later in the game.
#note EC: oh
>Dave_Koenig: AABELMM 11E EMBALM. +26 143
#note DK: If I were in the lead here, BLAME N2 would be by far the best play. However, since I'm trailing it's important to avoid the board getting too shut down. It's very hard to reach the upper left quadrant with the J where it is, but this play starts inching things that way while still trying to keep the lines up top open.
>Evans_Clinchy: AIIPTUU K5 UP..... +24 226
>Dave_Koenig: AAAGHIO 10E AHA +35 178
#note DK: This is the best I have with this rack, which unfortunately blocks some lines and doesn't have a great bingo leave. But it does score well and set up the TAHA# hook for the D column.
>Evans_Clinchy: AEIITUV 13I VIATI. +30 256
>Dave_Koenig: ADGINOY 9E DOGY +37 215
#note DK: Definitely better than Quackle's static evaluator's recommendation of YOD for a few reasons. The G is not very helpful here, as the -ING bingos are not happening on this board. Also DAE takes -S while YAE does not, so it might give me another way to open more of the board later. Also, it scores six more points. However, the necessary pursuit of points has forced me to block off the TAHA# hook.
>Evans_Clinchy: EHKOTUW N2 WHOT +31 287
#note DK: Consider the situation now if he had played CORNERS. I'd be in even worse shape than I am now.
>Dave_Koenig: AEEILNN 14F ELAIN +21 236
#note DK: I figured if I didn't do this, he was likely to kill that one bingo spot on row 14. I'm setting up the possibility of drawing big Q or Z plays to row 15 in addition to bingos on row 13. If he hits one, I might hit the other. Also, it might influence him to make a play to 15A himself, which would at least open things up for me a bit. Nonetheless, in retrospect I think I missed a better play: LIEN 2J. This sets up the ALIEN hook to row 1, when only one more A is unseen, in addition to row 4 bingos ending in E. It's very likely he will take those spots out by making a play up there himself, but at least that would require him to keep the row 14 lane open a bit longer.
>Evans_Clinchy: EEGIKNU M4 KUE +19 306
#note DK: This play frankly surprised me a lot. I figured he might have a good rack and hopes to wind up for a big bingo or play on row 15 before I can get it, but with his lead and the board getting as tight as it is, I think something like KUE D15 was probably called for. This is partially to reduce my chances of bingoing, but also because the Q and Z are still out there, and a big play with one of those on row 15 could get me back in it. His play does take out the ZHO# spot on M3, but with the remaining pool, the only ways I can see me hitting it are with POZ# or SAZ# from M1. With not many of those vowels remaining, that seems like a longer shot than me having something down below.
#note EC: k
>Dave_Koenig: EEGNRSZ H6 N... +7 243
#note DK: A play which Quackle doesn't even come up with, but which immediately shoots to the top of its sim. The point is to set up the SNARY# hook while fishing for one of the five unseen E's for either GEEZERS 5B or GEEZER 15A. With only one other S and one U unseen, the SNARY# hook is hard to block.
>Evans_Clinchy: AEFGINO 13C GOAF +21 327
>Dave_Koenig: EEGRRSZ 6K .R. +5 248
#note DK: With both GEEZER(S) spots still open and all those E's still out there, it seemed my best shot was still to go fishing.
>Evans_Clinchy: EEIINOT 15C ONIE +11 338
>Dave_Koenig: EEEGRSZ 5B GEEZERS +92 340
#note DK: Miraculously, I take a small lead in a game that looked hopeless for so long, but it is short lived.
>Evans_Clinchy: EIPQSTU C4 P.QUISTE +71 409
>Evans_Clinchy: DIL (challenge) +5 414
#note DK: Plays like this show why Evans is the Arden Cup champion: a 19000+ probability Collins-only bingo with the Q. I did not know the word and gave him five more points on the challenge.
#note EC: thx
>Dave_Koenig: EEFINOV 6E OF +37 377
#note DK: Not a difficult endgame for me. My best scoring play also takes away all of his out plays to the E on column F.
>Evans_Clinchy: DIL F4 D.. +7 421
#note DK: He's going to get two turns here, and his best out in two is ZOL followed by DIE D3 for 7 more points than the game continuation. DIE first would be wrong because it gives me DEVEIN to go out.
>Dave_Koenig: EEINV 8A VE.N +24 401
#note DK: Best.
>Evans_Clinchy: IL D3 LI. +14 435
#note DK: Best.
>Evans_Clinchy: (EI) +4 439 |
