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#player1 Josh Josh
#player2 Joel Joel
>Josh: ?AIJLOO H8 JIAO +22 22
#note many many placements are available, I liked this one, so does the sim. But it's really close.
>Joel: ?EEIMRT 11C TIREs.ME +68 68
#note 11D METE(O)RIc. He might have thought it was Collins
>Josh: ?EILORT 10H .EROLITh +69 91
#note I felt this gave back the least, and made up for the 1 point difference from EsTRIOL 12I. C6 LIbRE(T)TO looks pretty good here too, as well as TOILE(T)Ry.
>Joel: III -III +0 68
>Josh: AIMNUVZ 12J MIZUNA +41 132
>Joel: AENORSU L3 NEUROSA. +68 136
>Josh: EEIILVW E5 VIEWIE. +26 158
>Joel: KLU 8L .ULK +24 160
>Josh: AABEELY N2 EYEBAL. +28 186
#note 8A BYLA(W). I missed it. I also considered BA(I)LEY.
>Joel: ERTT O1 TRET +25 185
>Josh: ACDDFNN F10 F.ND +29 215
>Joel: ILX O12 .XIL +33 218
>Josh: ACDFHNR 13K DAH +38 253
#note 14J CHADRI is a good alternative, wow! I didn't know it.
>Joel: GOPRS 14B GORPS +31 249
#note scored as 32
>Josh: CFGNOPR 15A FOP +31 284
#note I was going to play PROF but I played this cause I thought it reduced his score by a lot. I think it was wrong to do what I did, because even though I thought of 13A overlaps, I thought 15A plays scored enough more for points sacrifice to be worth it. I also thought my leave was better if I drew vowels. All of this seems to be wrong. I also considered FRO at F6 but I felt that didn't accomplish anything.
>Joel: AVW 13A VAW +38 287
>Josh: CEGIINR 8H .IG +11 295
#note Are there any other options? 6J CE(R)I(A) seems OK.
>Joel: GS L12 ..G +13 300
#note Joel said he only had one S here.
>Josh: CEEINNR 8A RENE. +27 322
#note Again, what choices to I have here apart from this?
>Joel: ADHOSST 15H OATHS +42 342
#note Joel also mentioned that he drew the other S after playing the G last turn. This was his rack, so ODAHS.
>Josh: ABCINOY D6 BY. +17 339
#note So Joel just played 5 tiles. He has a 5/9 chance of having drawn the Q. By that calculation I have a 4/9 shot of drawing it if I play 4 tiles, a 3/9 shot if I play 3, 2/9 if I play 2 and 1/9 if I play one I think.
Now Quackle thinks I bingo around 22% of the time after my play. It's a bit less than that given the Q being more likely to draw than most of the other tiles. Let's say 20% given all factors. I think that gives me around a 30% chance of winning given that I probably eke out the win in some scenarios where Joel has the Q without bingoing.
But is this the right play? Probably not. I played this mostly since it blocks a Q hotspot (QUO(I)N/QUO(I)T/QUA(I)). That, coupled with wanting to play fewer tiles but retain a bingo-prone leave and leave lanes open were enough reasons to play this. But my chances of bingoing next turn are quite slim, like I said. It would seem that my best bet might be to force Joel to play off his Q for 21 or 22 and either decide to fish or to find a way to win without bingoing. In that case I should also rid the Q threat on B6 by playing BY(E) there for 3 less. My logic for BY(E) at D6 was faulty because of the threat I was leaving open. I should either concentrate on maximizing my bingo chances or minimizing Joel's scoring chances since I can't do both at the same time. The final decision should take other things into account but it should mostly be consistent with the actual threats at hand and also rely on inferences. He's least likely to have the Q and the C I would say, most likely to have a D and the S. So BY(E) at B6 would also reduce his bingo percentage, which is important. I think it's the right play. Maybe I need to go into more depth though.
>Joel: CDEOSTU A2 EDUCTO.S +62 404
>Josh: AACINOQ 10B QI +33 372
>Joel: DN 6D ..ND +9 413
>Joel: (ANOAC) +14 427
#note I didn't do much wrong here, I think. Joel having those S's late was huge for him. I could have recuperated around 40 points had I made no mistakes I guess. Wouldn't have been enough.
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