| Player 1 |
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#player1 Matt_Canik Matt Canik
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Matt_Canik: ADDENSU -DU +0 0
#note UNDEAD or exchange 2? Q prefers playing by about 2.5 points.
>Jim_Burlant: DEEJRTU 8G JEU +20 20
#note Against a random rack this is correct. However, in response to a short exchange (1, 2, or even maybe 3 tiles) this should have been played at 8H and not 8G. Why? Because it's not likely that he has the X if he's only exchanging 2 tiles (X being the only back hook for JEU) and if he does hit a 7, it's more likely to force him to have to slot the triple line. As with anything, there are pitfalls to consider (e.g.: he fishes to a rack of AEINRTU or AEIORST) but those are specific cases, not the most probable.
>Matt_Canik: ADEFNSU 9H SNAFUED +68 68
#note And if I play at 8H as I should have, that D would now be sitting in the O column and I'd have an easy run at it.
>Jim_Burlant: DEPRTTW 10J WEPT +41 61
#note Best, but I'm still in the hole- 36% to win in a short sim. This scores 41; my next best option is 8M WET and that wins 4% less often and sims 10 points down.
>Matt_Canik: BCIIPRV 8L CRIB +49 117
>Jim_Burlant: ADHNRRT 11H TRAD +30 91
#note An 11H play is obviously indicated, but which one? RAH scores 36 but leaves me way too consonant heavy. What I liked about this was that, keeping the H, it set up any number of 5's starting in TH on my next turn. Turning 4 tiles, that shouldn't be THAT hard to draw into...should it? The sim agrees with me: this is best by a hair. RAND 11H scores identically and wins 0.02% less often and sims 0.3 points down. Style preference. If you don't mind leaving yourself consonant heavy, RAH 11I is also a strong play. 32.4% to win.
>Matt_Canik: ACFIPUV 7H PFUI +28 145
>Jim_Burlant: AHLLNRY H11 .ALLY +27 118
#note So much for the best-laid plans. I considered two plays here: HYLA 6E and this. HYLA does a better job clearing the rack and preserving more bingo prone tiles...but I'm still consonant overloaded and he may still hit at H11 if I leave that alone. On this board, short of a bingo there really isn't much scoring avaialble unless he has the Q for QAID, so I went for this to see where things went. The sim indicates this is best. HYLA, for reference, wins 3% less often and sims almost 7 points down. 27% to win.
>Matt_Canik: ACEGQSV N6 QA.. +34 179
#note Somehow, I'm able to keep scoring through weird-looking racks.
>Jim_Burlant: AEHHNRR 6E RHEA +21 139
#note If you don't have a bingo or a power tile, this board is pretty much dead and there aren't any great options. I saw this and really liked it for several reasons. First, it clears out the duplicates nicely, and this was the only decent scoring option I had. Finally, it opens the E column as well as row 5, so the game isn't effectively over if he makes a blocking play to shut off rows 12 - 15. Two plays stand out at the top of the sim: a cool extension I never saw of HER(PES) H4, and this. This wins the sim, but I'm still not getting anywhere: still not quite 20-1/2% to win.
>Matt_Canik: CDEGNSV 14F VE.D +16 195
#note A lot of unexciting options this turn:
G(Y)VED gives back huge row 14 plays. VE(L)D holds 4 consonants and is generally meh. SCEND scores 28 but holds GV, which will be bad if Jim opens a big threat next turn. VENG(E) gives the A hook. Exchanging doesn't do all that much for me here since bingos will seldom go down. Looking at things after the fact, I think I like grabbing the available points with SCEND.
>Jim_Burlant: EHNNNOR 5B NONE +12 151
#note Right idea, wrong execution. I saw yet another replicated rack and I slapped this down to just open more lines. A better way of doing this would have been a play Matt pointed out during our lengthy post-mortem: 5D NEON scores 7 more and still creates a nice line for a 7. That said, this lured Matt into probably the only mistake he made this game. NEON wins 21.6%; this wins 17.6 and is a 9-1/2 point dog.
>Matt_Canik: ACDGINS B3 DA.CINGS +70 265
>Matt_Canik: ACDGINS -- -70 195
#note Ouch, 2x2 blocked :(. This is WAY better than the other options, and my rule of thumb is ''if it's a competitive event, it probably takes an S''. I was wrong here.
>Jim_Burlant: GHIINOR O4 GHI +20 171
#note My thought process on deciding whether to challenge was pretty simple: while I wasn't 100% sure, I know I'm now far enough into the 8's that I thought I should have seen it. But what pushed me over the edge was the game situation: if it was good, I'd be trailing by 114 points and at least another turn away from bingoing. As for what to do next, my plan prior to his showing me his rack was to play HI O5 to set up a hook for my G. But I wound up overthinking this, figuring him to take out the hook since he had a G himself. So I opted to play off the G and not give him the hook. A sim run against his rack says I should have just played 4C HI. OHING 4D is also a good choice. Scorewise I don't leave any significant points on the board compared to most of the choices (well, except for OHING) and this does work out for me in a couple of turns. 25% to win. 4C HI wins 33 if Q is to be believed.
>Matt_Canik: ACDGINS B1 CANI.G +26 221
>Jim_Burlant: ILNOORR D2 LOR. +8 179
#note I saw this rack and chastised myself for having played off the G on my previous turn. The 7th tile was a duplicated R, and had I played HI I'd be playing COLORING on row 1. Instead, I had no clue. Sitting on yet another rack of swill I wanted to prevent his hitting something for 36 on row 1. Q says I should just take the 19 points I have available for 5G ORLON. This is definitely weak, but it did work out, however.
>Matt_Canik: ?ADGMSS 6J MAG +24 245
>Jim_Burlant: IMNOORT 4H MOTORIN. +78 257
#note Only bingo. Back in the game - 47% to win.
>Matt_Canik: ?BDOSSS 3K SOB +22 267
#note I feel like I've drawn triple-S racks so many times this tournament. They're weird to deal with.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AENOVY 3A E.V.Y +22 279
#note Not thrilled to part with the E, but this was the only play I could find besides 2D LEVY that unloaded both the V and Y, and there are still 5 E's unseen. Q agrees - this is best. 3H OY is also a good choice.
>Matt_Canik: ?DEEISS 13H .InSEEDS +72 339
#note Only bingo for Matt and he' s 82% to win. But this one wasn't over yet.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AKNOTT L12 K.NT +18 297
#note This was the game's make-or-break position, and my play was the wrong execution of the right idea. His lead is big enough that I have to play for the A column bingo given this rack. That's the part I got right. The best pure rack cleaner I have is L12 KETO, as it leaves me drawing to ANT? from a vowel-overloaded pool. The problem with it is that, he's got good shot of replying with a 51-point ZOWIE on row 15. If that occurs, I'll trail by 93 points and, other than ANTISEX, any bingo I hit won't be enough. I need the A to ensure I can bingo down the A column (even if I do have the blank) so plays like ATOM H1 and KOA 2L were non-starters. Something had to give, but what? For reasons I can't explain I just didn't have the guts to risk a ZOWIE comeback so I tried to have my cake and eat it too by hoping for a miracle draw. I realized this didn't play my rack vis-a-vis the tile pool but I felt this was the compromise I had to make, given the limitations of this position. This choice cost me the game, as you'll see in a couple of turns.
>Matt_Canik: AEIILOT O11 AI.LE +18 357
#note Had a really really hard time deciding what to do here. If Jim has a bingo starting in an A from A6, I lose. But he's just played 3 tiles which makes that sort of unlikely. AIOLI A6 sets up different bingos. Given that Jim just played 3 consonants, it implies that he was still consonant heavy which makes me think he's somewhat likely to have RT? or R? or T? on his rack, making AIOLI a worse play. I don't really know what to do here. I think AISLE allows me to outrun in most cases, holds tiles to addess a bingo line he tries to set up, and, importantly, keeps a consonant.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEOOTX 2D .OX +31 328
#note This is definitely the right play. There are no bingoes in the unseen pool and I need to make sure that the A column stays open. He can only block one of those lines, and if I have the right draw (e.g.: IZ for AZOTIsE) I still win. Q indicates this wins 47% in a 2-ply sim. If I'd played KETO instead of KENT, I'd be sitting AENOTX? and would still be making this same play, drawing 2 to AENT?.
>Matt_Canik: EIORTWZ 1E TOWER +39 396
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEIOTU A6 AgOUTIE +74 402
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEIOTU -- -74 328
#note If I play KETO two turns go, I'm sitting on AEINTU? and I'm bingoing out for the win with AUNTIES, ALUNITE, etc. Instead my not having had any guts two turns ago leaves me with this. I was 99% sure this was phony, but it was the only way to win as there are no legitimate 7's in this mess. Matt's comment after adjudicating the challenge: "You had to try that." While NONE and LORN left something to be desired, the game was still winnable. "No guts, no glory." KETO needed to be the play and I needed to take a chance on it.
>Matt_Canik: IZ 15J ZI. +12 408
>Matt_Canik: (AEIOTU?) +12 420 |
