| Player 1 |
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#player1 Josh Josh
#player2 Matthew_Tunnicliffe Matthew Tunnicliffe
>Josh: ABLMOSW H4 WOMBS +32 32
#note WOMB is probably slightly better but against the scariest player in the division I wanted points, which is probably fallacious reasoning. I didn't even consider just playing WOMB, rather BLOW or BOWL 8H. If this is a mistake it's not huge, the bigger mistake is not considering just WOMB 7H.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ?AABEGU G5 BEAU +22 22
#note While Matthew was thinking here I took the time to observe from afar Joel Horn competing against Chris Tallman. I saw only Joel's rack; AAAFINN. Chris had played RUNTIER first move for 66 at 8G, and Joel decided to play FAN keeping AAIN for 12 points at F7, which is close to a 0 equity play. I thought, "boy, that isn't that good of a play, is it? And he's probably going to hate just about any draw he pulls..."
Needless to say Joel drew AEI. I tried to hide my amusement, but Joel didn't try to hide his frustration. Next turn he played ARIA for 6 holding AEIN and drew DGT...
>Josh: AEIILNU 7G ..ULIA +9 41
#note I played this cause he took over 4 minutes on his last play. For that reason I didn't think the A at L7 was too dangerous. I was right but maybe this still isn't the correct play. It was difficult to lay down.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ?AGORTU L2 ARGOn.UT +68 90
>Josh: DEEEIIN -EEI +0 41
#note M9 INDIE I guess. A lot of the time when I'm down early I still feel like I need to make a comeback so quickly that I can't gamble with a weaker leave for less than 20 points. J6 E(L)IDE is also not terrible. Here I also briefly considered exchanging just EI. I didn't consider any play cause nothing came to me. This is an attitudinal problem.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: ADGIJST F4 JAG +30 120
>Josh: DEINRTV 2J VI.ND +34 75
#note 2H DEVI(A)NT seems too crazy even for me although I saw it. This has got to be the play despite it crippling the top half of the board which was already kind of in trouble after JAG.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: DGISTTZ J6 G.ITZ +39 159
>Josh: EFIPRTT 9C FRITT +21 96
#note Considered FRIT(Z) but I didn't like that it left the board pretty bereft of bingo opportunities. I missed a good play here, M8 TITFER. FRIT(Z) might still be correct but I have to draw an S next turn or hope that Matthew doesn't have one before me to do anything to win this game. I played this to keep the board as open as possible while turning over tiles so that I can hopefully draw some good stuff. I need to get lucky.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: DDEELST D8 T.EDDLES +74 233
#note Well that's that, isn't it
>Josh: CEEIOPR 14B CR.EPIE +34 130
#note I guess 8A POE(T) and hope for the best. I also considered 15D (S)COPE, but not 15D (S)PECIE. Obviously 95% of the time Matthew will capitalize on this move but I felt like I needed that 5% and then that 20% of that 5% where I would draw a bingo next turn after Matthew couldn't capitalize. I also hoped he would challenge and that this word was valid, which it is.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AEIILNQ 11B QA.I +28 261
#note This seems good, but so does 15H LEI. Most of the time I really can't afford to block the perceived setup. But some of the time my best play blocks it.
>Josh: EINOOST O1 ISOTONE +84 214
#note Well look, that happened! I now have another shot at winning. But what path should I choose here? Maybe I should have just played "safe" and destroyed scoring spots to the detriment of volatility and maximal bingo opportunities instead of made a crazy play like this, but I was down a bingo no matter what. He obviously couldn't capitalize on H15 last move so more likely than not he'll have a harder time than usual to do so this turn. That was my reasoning. And everyone is going to hate it just like they hated B(O)RECOLE, and I'm fine with that. No matter what I needed to get really lucky again to win this game against an undefeated contestant that was already getting out of reach. Spread already didn't matter to me as I was +192 with 6 wins, 300 points or more from the next 6-1 player. I needed the win. I thought ISOTONE was the winningest* play.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AEIKLNY 15H LANKY +54 315
#note I was wrong in this context, and probably in many more. That doesn't bother me. LEAKY makes a tad more sense here.
>Josh: EHHOORU 8A HOO. +26 240
#note Now what? I didn't draw the S nor did I draw the blank, but I still have to go for them, don't I? I also considered exchanging everything but I don't necessarily need the blank or s immediately, so I just decided to score in the meantime and leave everything else open. I also considered 13F UH cause I had a U but that closed down a premium bingo lane.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: AEEEINO K10 AEON +19 334
#note I was a bit surprised by this move but he can shut the board down next turn because of it. I think it was a good play, so long as I can't bingo this turn. And it's obviously his best equity play.
>Josh: AEEHNRU -HEANURE +0 240
#note Considered UH again, but I kind of knew what Matthew was doing so I got scared again and exchanged. UH is probably the correct play. HA(J) is decent too. My winning chances are down to around 1% here.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: DEEIMRR 12H REM.RID +22 356
#note yup, sick that he could just do that in two moves. This doesn't even take an S which I forgot even though this is one of the most recently studied words for me. This looked like a perfect play, but EMER(O)ID looks even more perfect.
>Josh: ?EIOPSV N7 PrOVI.ES +96 336
#note Well I got lucky again here and I still have a chance to take Matthew down. The sim says it's around 23% but I think it's more like 15 or 20%. Still an improvement from 1/100... Reason being I can draw the X here and outscore him if he has cruddy stuff.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: CENRUXY 13H EX +38 394
#note DENIED BY THE ALMIGHTY TENTACLE ONCE AGAIN
>Josh: AAEFHNW 13M F.W +28 364
#note I missed a cool play of H(EX)A(N)E but it's not correct. I should play M12 (I)F for one more spread.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: CELNRUY A4 LUNC.ER +13 407
#note When he hit the clock I was mad cause I had to challenge a word I was 99% sure of.
>Josh: AAEHN - +0 364
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: Y 5K Y. +10 417
#note -1 to something prettier.
>Matthew_Tunnicliffe: (AAEHN) +16 433
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