| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Paul_Holser Paul Holser
>Jim_Burlant: AEMOPTV 8G VAMP +22 22
#note I went back and forth between 8E MOVE and this. 8E MOVE has better defensive position but it scores 4 fewer points and leaves me an okay APT. Just the same, this scores 22 to MOVE's 18 and unloads all the counters, though the EOT leave is a hair vowel heavy. Since APT didn't seem so strong as to justify giving up the scoreboard points (I might be more inclined to make this sort of sacrifice for something like ART or definitely ERT), I applied the Jeff Reeves maxim: "When in doubt, take the points." Quackle makes clear why I couldn't autopilot this: this play and 8E MOVE are practically interchangeable in the sim at 1000+ iterations, with VAMP getting the nod by the narrowest of margins. Syle preference.
>Paul_Holser: EEILNTT 9H TIE +15 15
#note Actual rack.
>Jim_Burlant: AENOOOT -OOO +0 22
#note I autopiloted this and just exchanged right awqay. Q says I don't need to exchange here, and that 7H TAO (which I didn't look very hard to find) scores 18, which is barely enough to justify playing through this garbage. This is my second best choice, and in this game it reaped huge dividends.
>Paul_Holser: ELNPRTU 10J PURL +25 40
#note Actual rack. This was the last game before the lunch break, and we post-mortemed this one extensively over lunch. He indicated that my last play factored heavily in his decision making. If I had exchanged at least 5 tiles, he probably just plays PUL to leave ENRT. But, given that I've exchanged 3, I'm reasonably close to something. In that context, the problem with PUL is that it opens AEILPS back hooks, which I'm virtually guaranteed to have if I'm only exchanging three tiles. Hence, this choice which doesn't give me easy back hooks down the M column and forces me to have an S or O to play on row 11. Against a random rack Quackle says Paul should simply play his rack with PUL. When simmed against 6-letter stems like RETINA or GAINER, this is an extremely strong choice. Given his inferences, I think he made the right play and what followed was just bad luck for him, period.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIKNT L6 ANKE.ITE +84 106
#note Only bingo. 65% to win.
>Paul_Holser: ?EINOTW 11D TOWNIEs +75 115
#note Best bingo for Paul - this wins 44%.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEGIOR D8 GOI.ER +18 124
#note I saw and rejected plays like KORE 8L and EGO 10D due to leave; 10D EGO leaves a vowel overload AEIR and I really wanted to unload the G. Apparently this choice is the right idea with the wrong execution. GOATEE may be a hair better here for the sake of balance (it scores the same as this but keeps IR instead of AE). That said, the difference in the sim is minor (1% winning chances and 1.7 equity) at over 1100 iterations.
>Paul_Holser: ACDE 8A CAD.E +27 142
>Jim_Burlant: AEGHLOW M13 HOW +28 152
#note I evaluated three plays: HOW C12, WOG C12, and this. WOG's appeal is that it unloads the dreaded N-less G, but only scores 23. HOW C12 scores 27 to this play's 28. But, while I do have EL in my rack, C12 HOW gives up way too many back hooks and is too much of a defensive liability. Granted, this choice slots the triple with a W, but it's not the easiest thing to play through. Hence, I opted for this since, it was the least likely to give back a huge play unless he had a J or some very specific combinations of counters. Q agrees with me - this eventually percolates to the top of the sim.
>Paul_Holser: AFO 12F OAF +26 168
>Jim_Burlant: ABEGILT B8 .GITABLE +76 228
#note This also plays at B4 and 6H for 65, but this scores 76 and is clearly best. 74% to win.
>Paul_Holser: ABEOR 15A A.ROBE +27 195
>Jim_Burlant: ?DEHUYY 15M .HY +36 264
#note I must be playing too many Words With Friends games - I somehow scored this as 27 and neither of us caught the error. The best play is one I didn't know: E4 HEYD(E)Y for 37. This is a close second in the sim.
>Paul_Holser: AI C13 AI. +18 213
>Jim_Burlant: ?DDELUY 6K L.DY +16 280
#note The only bingoes in this rack are SUDDENLY (which I saw) and DEUCEDLY (which I never would have found), and neither one plays. Don't ask me how, I just never saw the simple DULY K3/ M3. This is terrible, as it gives up potential 2x2's if he's got something ending in A, or E. Quackle says I'm still in great shape at 95% to win, but this is a bigger mistake than the duck thinks it is; I got lucky that he got addled with the wrong rack at the wrong time.
>Paul_Holser: AIJ K3 JAI. +22 235
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEESU 8L .UES +24 304
#note No bingoes play. I considered JEU but rejected it because of the unseen X. I didn't look anywhere else beyond this choice; given that there were still 3 S's unseen and S was pretty useless on this board, I had no qualms about using it to take out 8O, which had sat open more than long enough IMO. The sim indicates this is solid but not best - SOU 14L should be the play and that this is a 2-1/2 point dog. Still in great shape - 97.3% to win.
>Paul_Holser: EEIMNST E2 EMETIN.S +72 307
#note A1 TENESMIC scores 89 but it wouldn't have mattered.
>Jim_Burlant: ?ADEIRV 4G VARI.tED +74 378
#note This is one of 6 bingoes I have - best is VIzARDED, C1 76, which I didn't know. 14E ADVIsER is also good, and this and 4H MARAVEDI are also reasonable choices. Still 91% to win, but this one wasn't over yet.
>Paul_Holser: FZ 2D F.Z +35 342
#note He absolutely had to go here given the unseen OOX in the pool. Had he failed to do so, I'd have hit him with OX F1 for 50.
>Jim_Burlant: GNOORSX H1 GRO.N +18 396
#note I saw the unseen pool and my analysis was incomplete: I only saw SQUAT H1 as a threat, and my main priority was blocking that. Had I recognized that he had both SQUAT and QUOTE 4A as a threat, I would have looked harder for a scoring play. Valuation-wise, anything is just about as good as anything, (this is one of the three highest valued plays I have), but the only play that Championship Player says wins 100% is SIX 6D. I don't know that this is perfect, but I'm okay with this. Maybe BARONG 13B for a few more scoreboard points as a cushion since he's got two potential Q spots?
>Paul_Holser: OQTU 4A QUOT. +48 390
>Jim_Burlant: DNORSUX B2 DO.X +24 420
#note The sim is ridiculous here, but Championship Player is more realistic in that everything wins 100%. Best is apparently 6D NIX, which wins by 5 more points.
>Paul_Holser: CLNS 6D S.C +11 401
#note SUNDRY N1 wins by 10 more points. Whatever. First, hats off to Paul for making me really work for this. Outside of missing DULY, the only real miss came at garbage time. I can't play a whole lot better than this.
#note N1 SUNDRY scores 20. First, compliments to Paul for playing me as hard as he did. As for my own play, outside of missing DULY, the only real miss came after the win/loss was already decided. I just can't play much better than this.
#rack1 NRSU
|
