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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Fran_Silver Fran Silver
>Jim_Burlant: AHIRRSU -RU +0 0
#note A bit of auto-pilot here - the plays I couldn't think of were URARI and SURAH at 8H. As for a sim - turns out that, if I was going to whiff, this was the turn to do it. This is atrocious statically, but as the sim approaches 1000 iterations, this is awfully close to URARI or SURAH. SURAH and URARI win 51-3/4%; this sims 1/2 point down and wins barely 1/4% less often.
>Fran_Silver: OX 8H OX +18 18
>Jim_Burlant: AHINRRS 9H RIN +16 16
#note Despite the numerous back hooks given up this balances the rack better than anything, and I've got an S. Quackle agrees - it's best and it's 49% to win.
>Fran_Silver: ?AEMSTW 10B WArMEST +74 92
#note Here we go again: for the 4th time in 5 games, my opponent hits a blank bingo by no later than turn 2. Fran's best bingo here is utterly sick: W(OR)kMATES H7 scores 92. Her next choice should be to play this down the K column. But her choice led me to make a mistake of my own, as you'll see momentarily.
>Jim_Burlant: ACDEHRS K3 CRASHED +81 97
#note I evaluated C8 CHARADES and this, and it never occurred to me that CHARADES also played at C6, so for me it came down to whether it was worth it to slot the 3x3 for 5 extra points. Interestingly Q says I shouldn't be so cautious; if I whiff on the C6 placement, C8 CHARADES is my next best choice, and it says this wins 1% less often than C8 CHARADES. But C6 CHARADES was clearly the play.
>Fran_Silver: AAAIIRT 4H TIA.A +12 104
#note Actual rack.
>Jim_Burlant: ACENQTW C9 Q.NAT +48 145
#note Benefitting from my miss on the previous turn. Clearly best, and I'm winning 59%.
>Fran_Silver: EO 7K .OE +7 111
#note Uh oh...
>Jim_Burlant: CEGPRSW 12A CR.W +24 169
#note I never saw G(A)WP in this rack - either at 5J for 18 or 12B for 20. The 5J placement is very strong despite the points given up on the scoreboard because, without an S, the only bingoes down the N column will not hit N2 for meaningful points. Anyway - while my play outscores either placement of GAWP, the G is *so* negative without an N to complement it that I really need to unload it here. As for a sim - 12B GAWP wins with 5J GAWP a close second. While I do think my play is a mistake, I think Quackle is overestimating its severity. I can see this being a 7 or 8-point mistake. Can someone please explain why Quackle thinks this is a 14-point dog? Seriously?
>Fran_Silver: AEINRTU 6D URINATE. +62 173
#note Plays on row 3 for 68.
>Jim_Burlant: EEEGIPS A12 .EPE +24 193
#note I didn't see anyting that unloaded the G, and looking at the kibbitzer, the only worthwhile plays that play off the G require me to unload the S as well (REGIMES E6, for starters). This is best. Besides - there are only two G's in a bag of 54 tiles. How lilkely am I to get one on a 3-tile pick?
>Fran_Silver: EGILNPY L9 YELPING +89 262
#note Ouch! This the third time in five games that my opponent has followed up a bingo with a bingo out of the bag. This is the only bingo for Fran, and now she's in the driver's seat - she's 79% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: EEGGIIS 14J GE.II +20 213
#note I should have assumed I'd duplicate the G. Frustrated by the way this day was continually going, I was about to knee-jerk exchange when I found this. The sim likes it a lot too - it's the highest valuation play I have and on a win percentage basis it's the runner up to GIGUE D3. GIGUE's strength is that it unloads both the G's...but constricts things more than opens them up, and it makes it too easy for her to create a situation where the only line left for me to play down is the N column. While this play still addles me with the other G, I also need to create some spots for myself. The one downside to this - the pool has all those unseen O's, which she's almost a shoe-in to have after her bingo. Then again, this keeps things volatile - maybe I'll get lucky?
>Fran_Silver: EJLLO 15F JELLO +39 301
#note Yeah, right - I should have known better based on how the day was going.
>Jim_Burlant: DEGORSS N1 GROSSED +80 293
#note Not at all thrilled with slotting the triple, but the disparity between this choice and my others - N4 and N6 GROSSED score 72 to this play's 80 - leaves me no choice. This is clearly best. I've increased my chances from 15% to 27%.
>Fran_Silver: ILNOTU 1H LOUTIN. +27 328
>Jim_Burlant: ABFITUV G1 FUB +23 316
#note Cute play, but I 'm really not helping myself by closing the board down. These same letters score 24 at 3G. Regardless, 7F TUBA 32 (the sim winner) doesn't even win 18%. Looking bleak.
>Fran_Silver: HOY E8 HO.Y +24 352
>Jim_Burlant: AEINTVV 13G VIVA +22 338
#note Yet again, I draw to unique tiles and wind up with duplicated counters. This is best - still barely 18% to win.
>Fran_Silver: BDR D4 DR.B +14 366
>Jim_Burlant: AEKNOTZ 2C KANZ. +38 376
#note Hmm. I saw 38 points for this and thought I'd take my chances in the end game since Fran's end game isn't her strong suit, nd she'd admit as much herself. The play that wins the sim - even when simmed against an inferred blank - is TROKE 5C for 30. Given that her final rack is DEFIMU?, the consolation I can take is that I theoretically don't have a win in this position no matter what.
>Fran_Silver: ?DEFIMU B14 IF +23 389
>Jim_Burlant: AEOOT 5C O.ATE +18 394
#note I took quite a while here - the blank gives her MULLED on row 11 and MUDDLE on row 4 as outs, and with AEOOT I can't go out in one. I never saw ABET 3F, which scores 23 points to this play's 18. Against Quackle it's a moot point - I still lose regardless. Against Fran, this had tragic results, as you'll see in a second:
>Fran_Silver: ?DEMU 11J MU.ED +16 405
#note And she misses MUL(L)ED?!?!? If I find ABET, I'm sitting at 399 and about to go out for 8 with TOO 13C and I win by 2. Instead, I come up short:
>Jim_Burlant: O D12 .O +7 401
#note Or NOM for 7 at J9. I knew at the time that this one had to be on me, but couldn't figure out where, exactly, I'd gone wrong. I benefitted from my CRASHED mistake (I'm certainly not playing QANAT for 48 on the next turn if I make the proper play the turn before) and even with my suboptimal play I still made a game of it. Turns out that I didn't look hard enough to minimize spread. If I make the play that should have lost by 11 instead of by 14, I win the game. Frustrating.
>Jim_Burlant: (?) +0 401
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