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#player1 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Chris_Cree: AFY 8G FAY +18 18
>Jim_Burlant: EILRTUV 7B RIVULET +70 70
#note Round 4. Or at 9B; both score 70. I was feeling good about this game, thinking that maybe my luck was about to change since 2 of my first 3 opponents had hit me with blank bingos no later than turn 2. I should have known better.
>Chris_Cree: ?ABDNST J2 BANDiTS +75 93
#note Did I say two of my last three opponents? Make that three of my last four. Chris took a while here, undoubtedly looking for the E column play he didn't have.
>Jim_Burlant: ADGNPTV 3I V.NDA +26 96
#note I passed on PAVAN 3I because I didn't want to give up the E back hook, and I didn't know the sim runner up, 3I PADNAG. This is the third play that stands out at the top of the sim. Q says PAVAN is best, and that this wins 0.3% less often and sims 0.8 points down. Given my limited options, I'm fine with this choice.
>Chris_Cree: DIIOR D7 .IROID +22 115
>Jim_Burlant: BGIIPPT C11 PIG +19 115
#note This was reminding me of round 1, where I would turn tiles and get duplicated I's and nothing else but low-prob tiles. What this came down to for me was, how much of the rack to turn? Q likes C11 PIPIT. I was going to play that but didn't want to slot the triple while I was left with BG, and I really wanted to unload the G. Q likes giving up the E back hook with PIP and it likes BIG better than this. If I had this to do again, maybe PIPIT, whose 6 extra points and two more tiles turned do look better than this. But I don't think I'm buying the rest of the sim result beyond that.
>Chris_Cree: ?AFHIRW L3 .WARFIsH +86 201
#note Nice find! And, in case you're counting, the game is barely 4 turns old and this is already the third time in 4 games I've been on the short end of two blank bingoes.
>Jim_Burlant: BEIPSTX 8L .BEX +39 154
#note It's either this or EX E10. The problem with EX is that, given the consonant overloaded BIPST leave, it only scores 5 more than this - no where near enough to justify it. Q agrees - this is best.
>Chris_Cree: KOO F7 .OOK +29 230
>Jim_Burlant: IPRSTTU C3 PUTT. +14 168
#note Sometimes ignorance is bliss - I hadn't unraveled yet and was still calm because I didn't recognize that the K in LOOK and H in DWARFISH had blocked OUTSTRIP. As for plays I can make, I really had no clue. I wanted to open lines for 8's in the northwest, which this play accomplishes. (I didn't think the D was going to stay open very long, as I'd put down PUTRI(D) and pullied it back up) Then again, all my options are pretty lame - the simple 2M PUT wins 17%; this wins 14-1/2 and sims roughly 6 points down.
>Chris_Cree: DEOO 10J OO.ED +15 245
>Jim_Burlant: EEIMNRS 8A ME +14 182
#note No bingoes play. I don't know that the equity plays really help me here - the sim likes D3 EM and D1 MIEN. They both outscore this, but EM doesn't open anything up and MIEN just gives him 30+ back after he defends it. I chose this to open up a line for an 8 that might stay open for a while.
>Chris_Cree: AA E10 AA +21 266
>Jim_Burlant: EINNORS 5A IN.ONERS +66 248
#note I realized my mistake while I was looking at my next rack: 4A REUNIONS scores 70 where this only scores 66 and costs a bit of spread...but as you'll see, it wound up not mattering.
>Chris_Cree: EWY 11I YEW +30 296
>Jim_Burlant: HLLMNST -LLMN +0 248
#note I'm not playing perfectly here, but these tiles are not helping me, either. Yet another tell-tale sign of how this day was going: from an unseen pool of 16 vowels and 13 consonants I draw 7 consonants? Give me a break! All I saw here was 5J DHAL; if I could play off HL for, for argument's sake, 24 points, I'd play through. For 16 points it just didn't seem like it was worth it due to insufficient turnover. Sitting on duplicated L's, NTH 12K never occurred to me. As for the sim, NTH wins 20.5% and this is the runner up, winning 17.4. I can see why - NTH opens up a hook for my S, and the pool has so many unseen A's and E's that LLMS might yield a bingo with the right draw. Problem for me is that a check of Zyzzyva reveals that most of them are so low-probability they're way past any range I've ever alphagrammed. But exchanging keeping HST is certainly a strong choice, if not the absolute best in the computer's eyes. Would I do this again? I think I have to play to my word knowledge here and exchange. If I'm rock solid on 7's to 20000 (which I am not) then playing through is right.
>Chris_Cree: Q A4 Q. +21 317
>Jim_Burlant: EEHIIST 12G HIE +12 260
#note No real clue here - this actually sims very respectably. D1 HIE wins but I think that's just silly - again, he's sure to come back for 24 - 30 when he defends it. I didn't now the one true scoring play I had that's a slick play: BHESTIE M8 scores 42, but even that only wins 12%. This is the highest valuation play I have and it wins 12%.
>Chris_Cree: AAG 9A AGA. +14 331
>Jim_Burlant: EEILSTU 12K ETUI +14 274
#note The only 8's in this rack or LEUCITES and ULEXITES, and they don't play. As for this, again, I had absolutely no clue and put this down; apparently, B1 LEU is my best play, but that only wins 8%; this wins 3. In retrospect, I certainly wish I'd thought of N3 LEU, and you'll see why in a moment:
>Chris_Cree: ACM 13E CAM +20 351
>Jim_Burlant: EEGJLSU B1 JEU +24 298
#note Now that the A's are gone, AJEE isn't a threat so I put this down.
>Chris_Cree: CEILRST N1 SCLERIT. +84 435
#note Chris took a while here - I'm guessing that the pool was *so* ugly he wasn't sure he wanted to bingo. No matter, this is a nice play.
>Jim_Burlant: EEGLOOS O12 SEGO +24 322
#note Not exactly what I had in mind when I set up the S hook.
>Chris_Cree: LNNRZ 4C .N +8 443
>Jim_Burlant: ELO 1L LO.E +15 337
#note My gut was on target about this one. While I figured there was some equity conceded here and there (e.g.: bingoing for 66 instead of 70, etc.), this was one of those games where, no matter what you do with the garbage you draw, you can't win. I might have played LEU down the N column to just make sure he didn't bingo there and save myself some spread, but there was nothing to be done about winning/losing.
>Jim_Burlant: (LNRZ) +26 363
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