| Player 1 |
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#player1 jesse jesse
#player2 cesar cesar
>jesse: AEEIINS -III +0 0
#note JD: EINS >> AENS
>cesar: AEIINOR 8G OI +4 4
#note CDS: i made the wrong OI play, quackle likes 8H better by almost 2 eq! JD: I think he should exchange
>jesse: DEIILNS G6 LI.NISED +63 63
#note JD: somehow I failed to notice that I had LINDIES and insta-played LIONISED. silly me. fortunately OI suggests that he doesn't have any high-point tiles so this is not quite as bad as it normally would be.
>cesar: AEEEINR F13 AE +7 11
#note CSD: nah, F10 AERIE here. quackle likes the AE at F10 a lot better than mine too. this is really difficult.
>jesse: GJLMNNU 14A JUNGL. +28 91
#note JD: this is a good time to open a hot-spot like the J one here, because he's quite likely to bingo (which I can't do that much about) and so I am likely to hit OM for 43 first if I need it.
>cesar: EEINRVZ H13 ZIN +49 60
>jesse: BFMNPRY 10F N.MBY +22 113
>jesse: BFMNPRY -- -22 91
#note CSD: not in my backyard JD: oops
>cesar: EEILMRV I2 VERMEIL +67 127
>jesse: BFMNPRY 6F F.Y.R +21 112
#note JD: now that I'm down with a bad rack, INBY to open the board seems like a good idea.
>cesar: ADDGNOS A11 GAD.O +45 172
>jesse: BEIMNPU F8 BUM +31 143
>cesar: ?ANOOST K6 SANTOOr +74 246
>jesse: DEIKNNP 3C PINKEN.D +82 225
#note JD: I was no longer even sure this was a word after getting words challenged off in consecutive games, but I had to go for it
>cesar: AEHIRRU 15G U.HAIRER +62 308
>jesse: ?ACEGTX C8 EXACTi.G +100 325
#note it happens.
>cesar: ABEHOPY B8 BAY +42 350
#note CDS: help, i have NO IDEA WHAT TO DO. conrad says 14K HOYA is interesting, it saves BE(E)P or BYE/BE something and also makes the 15O spot a lot uglier. many ply likes my play a lot more than the rest though.
>jesse: AIOOUVW A6 AVOW +58 383
>cesar: AEHLOPR 14K HOPE +33 383
#note CDS: 2H OVERLAP is supercool!! maybe it's the best play. HOPE sims a tiny bit better on many-ply. i also considered 11C CHOPS and wasn't sure about N10 HARPER.
>jesse: IIORSTU O11 TOURS +64 447
>cesar: ADFLRST 10J F.LD +16 399
#note CDS: i dont know, i need to open up a new lane it seems. any thoughts?
>jesse: CEEIITW M6 CITE. +10 457
#note JD: this is an extremely interesting play. 3-in-the-bag preendgames normally can't be solved exactly but the unusual situation (Q in the bag, three doubled letters, inference from last play) makes it more reasonable. The facts are that he must bingo to win, his last play probably kept either ERST, ARST or AEST, and there is only one Q spot currently on the board at D2. His odds of bingoing given his leave inference are 45% - OVEREATS at the top is 83, with AEERSTT he has ARIETTES or RESTATED either side, and his other bingos are ARIETTAS, AEROSAT, ROTATES, AERATES or TETRODES.
>cesar: AAEORST 4B SATE +18 417
#note CSD: i didn;t have overeats :( JD: I think I found a good option with CITED. In that case I only lose to OVEREATS, ARIETTES or ARIETTAS - about an 80% win rate given my inferences. But I now think I could've done one better - playing IT for 4 points at D3 and passing until he empties the bag. he can never draw a Q play that goes anywhere on the board. So the only way I lose is the 1/6 chance that I pick the Q on my next draw. Even then, I may still win some of the endgames if he fails to draw a bingo (although he will have two turns to fish since I am passing). so IT must be a bit better than CITED. In this particular universe he would play AEROSAT and I'd be 2/3 to win (have to dodge Q) so this worked out better.
>jesse: EEIQTW B4 .EW +27 484
>cesar: O 5H O. +9 426
>jesse: EIQT I13 ET. +24 508
>cesar: AR 8E A.... +7 433
>jesse: IQ 8K .I. +4 512
>cesar: R C3 ..R +7 440
#note JD: I went over by 2 minutes so 492-460
>cesar: (Q) +20 460
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