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#player1 Carla_Cree Carla Cree
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Carla_Cree: EIORU 8H OURIE +12 12
>Jim_Burlant: ?CFLNOT L1 CONFLaT. +80 80
#note There are no 2x2's, and the only plays available down the K column are FLECTION and CONFLICT, both of which could give up a lot of easy points if she has a bunch of clunk and an S. Quackle agrees - this is my best bingo.
>Carla_Cree: EJNS 2J JE.NS +56 68
>Carla_Cree: EJNS -- -56 12
>Jim_Burlant: EEIOOPU 1L .OUP +24 104
#note Regular readers of my games will know that, if I've just gained a free turn due to an opponent challenge, I'll often sacrifice points for the sake of rack grooming. So why didn't I just dump vowels with J6 OU(R)IE? I might have if I had the chance to leave myself something like AES or ERT, where a vowel dump left me EOP here. Also, I figured that, since she would probably play JEON 2J for 27, I'd deal with the vowel overload on my next turn. As for the sim, it's a toss-up - either this or OURIE J6 for 9 are virtually identical at the top of the sim, with OURIE winning 0.1% more often and simming 0.1 points better at 1000 iterations.
>Carla_Cree: EJNS I7 J.N +19 31
>Jim_Burlant: AEEEEIO -AEEEIO +0 104
#note So she plays JUN for 19 instead of JEON for 27? Since EERIE is no longer possible, the only question here is how deep to make this exchange? Q agrees- this is best. Exchanging 5 keeping AE is also a reasonable choice.
>Carla_Cree: EHOSV 5H HOVE. +22 53
>Jim_Burlant: DEGITWY H1 WIDT. +39 143
#note Right idea, wrong execution. The correct play here is WEIGHT to also unload the G. I was probably too protective of my E, as I never saw WEIGHT even though I looked for plays doubling the G or H. WEIGHT wins 83%, this wins 81 and sims 6 points down.
>Carla_Cree: ADEEIOS -AD +0 53
>Jim_Burlant: EGGIOUY 3C GOUGE. +20 163
#note Reasonable play but not best. So fixated on unloading the U and duplicated G's that I never saw the best play: DYEING 3H is the best play. Had I not missed this, this game might have taken a different trajectory. This wins 1% less often and sims roughly 6 points down approaching 1000 iterations.
>Carla_Cree: EELNOSS 9E LONE.ESS +78 131
#note Nice find!!!! Even with the imperfections in my play to this point, she's still in the hole, as she's still only 22% to win. But the game was about to go into the weeds for me, and I can trace that to my DYEING miss a couple of turns before, as you'll soon see.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIIRY 10E AYE +31 194
#note My dilemma here: play the board or play my rack? I considered AIRY D9, as it also cleaned out the duplicated I. But, with DDDFH unseen and her having just drawn 7, I thought it was too likely to give her a 50-point play that would get her back into the game. So, I settled for this. The play I couldn't think of (8A EYRIE) might have been better here, though they sim just about identically, with EYRIE winning 1/2% more often and simming 0.9 points better at just over 1000 iterations. As you'll see, from this point on this game just got ridiculous and there just wasn't much I could do.
>Carla_Cree: BEIZ 3J ZI.EB +32 163
#note Now the bagging starts. What does she do with this if I find DYEING a few turns ago?
>Jim_Burlant: EIIIKRR 10I KI +28 222
#note Saw this and N3 BIRK and didn't consider much else. While BIRK clears the crap a little better, it also gives up way too many easy plays down the O column. N3 BIRKIE (which I didn't know and would have rejected) cleans the rack nicely but gives up way too many easy plays. I figured that, with this, I'd take 28 points and if she didn't have an S or a blank, she was going to be hard pressed to catch up. The sim agrees with me - this is best. 68% to win, but not for long.
>Carla_Cree: AQT 2B QAT +29 192
>Jim_Burlant: EEIIIRR -EIIIR +0 222
#note Be serious! All those A's available and for the second straight turn I'm sitting on triplicated I's? This play was not auto-pilot; I seriously considered the paranoid defensive play of 2N RE but punted that when I recognized the S hook on row 6; I figured that if she hit, I'd still be screwed if I had to come back from EIIIR, so I decided to exchange now instead of later. Q says the only plays worth making are TORII D2 for 10 and I7 JUNKIER. TORII wins 63.7%; this wins 60.5 and sims as the silver medalist, roughly 5 points down. If I had it to do again, I'm not quite sure what I'd do because there are pros and cons to both plays. Thoughts?
>Carla_Cree: ?AEOPRT O3 sEAPORT +93 285
>Jim_Burlant: AAEEIRV 4A AVER +26 248
#note It's either this or 8A VARIA leaving duplicated E's. I was emphasizing elimination of duplicates above all else at this point; in retrospect I wish I'd found VARIA. VARIA wins 16%; this wins almost 13 and sims 8 points down.
>Carla_Cree: EMNX A4 .XMEN +42 327
>Jim_Burlant: AAEFHII N9 AHI +16 264
#note Reasonable choice but not best. Apparently I should play B4 VIA or 5D AHI. Not sure what I was thinking with this - maybe trying to make it more difficult for her to shut things down within two turns? Regardless, my winning chances have plummeted to 3%. The duck says the best play is VIA B4 which wins 3.65.
>Carla_Cree: DG E8 G..D +12 339
>Jim_Burlant: ACEFIRY O11 FARCY +47 311
#note Best. While I've improved my winning chances, it's still bleak - up from 3-1/2 to 16% winning chances.
>Carla_Cree: ADRSW 12A WARDS +33 372
>Jim_Burlant: EILLNOR B4 .IOL +26 337
#note Cute play but not best. ENOLIC (which I didn't know) plays at 14J for 20 is aparently best. I thought that if I could draw AI I might have a shot at an AEILNR 8.
>Carla_Cree: AIMS A11 S.AMI +30 402
>Jim_Burlant: DEILNNR 14A .ERLIN +20 357
>Carla_Cree: ABEITTU 13I ABUTTE. +20 422
>Jim_Burlant: DN K12 D.N +4 361
#note If you want to point the finger at my own play, GOUGED instead of DYEING certainly jumps to mind. While that was a mild mistake, the punishment for that was much more severe than the crime. From that point forward, while I don't claim I played perfectly, it's also fair to say that I had absolutely no chance of coming back into the game when I kept drawing I's and R's for 3 straight turns while Carla played off 7 premium tiles for solid points in an 8-turn span.
>Jim_Burlant: (I) +2 363
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