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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Early Mike Early
>Jim_Burlant: BEIJOOW 8G JOW +26 26
>Mike_Early: HKOO 9H HOOK +23 23
>Jim_Burlant: BEIOPRU 10J PIU +27 53
#note This didn't immediately jump out at me. I first considered K9 KRUBI but didn't like the unbalanced leave and it didn't do much to add resistance to the easy back hooks to HOOK. Then I saw this - better score and better balance in the leave. Since I don't have anything available that both scores and defends, all I can do is maximize my score and leave, which this does. Q agrees - this is clearly best. One note: at the time, I thought I had completely closed off the A back hook to HOOK. Later in the game, it never registered with me that I still had good scoring plays available down the L column, which costs me a lot of equity.
>Mike_Early: ENOP 11H OPEN +31 54
>Jim_Burlant: BEELORR J7 EL...R +22 75
#note Cute play but not best. Couldn't think of any of the best plays here; best is H11 OBOLE and the runner up is 12D ROBLE. 50% to win. OBOLE wins the sim and is almost 5 points better.
>Mike_Early: INT K5 NIT +8 62
>Jim_Burlant: BEEHORT 12C BOTHERE. +85 160
#note Phony. I was 80% sure this was bogus, but I gave it a 50% shot at staying on the board. Mike held and let it go. My best legitimate play is 12D BROTHER for 45. This wins 84% and sims 38 points better than BROTHER.
>Mike_Early: ?ILSSTY 4F STYLISt +80 142
#note Best bingo for Mike is LYrISTS 4G for 80, but the difference in the sim is splitting hairs.
>Jim_Burlant: ADFLRST H1 FLA. +30 190
#note Board blindness. I wasn't looking for underlaps on row 13 just yet. Given that it was Mike I was playing, I was worried about something like DEXY or DOZY at H1 and more or less autopiloted this. Best is apparently 13G FAD for 33. This sims roughly 6 points down.
>Mike_Early: ?AEGILN 1H .INAGLEd +89 231
#note Best bingo for Mike, and he's now 63% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: DEIQRST F2 QI. +32 222
#note I hated what this did to the baord given my deficit but I don't have much choice. 13B QI gives back way too many easy plays where this doesn't. Quackle agrees with me - this is best, and the 13B placement wins 4% less often and sims over 5 points down.
>Mike_Early: EOT E10 TO.E +8 239
>Jim_Burlant: CDERSTT 13G TEDS +31 253
#note Q likes 13B CEDE for 25 by a smidgeon over this; I saw this, saw that it scored well and left me 3 unique letters, and that was that. Q says CEDE wins 50.3%, this wins 49% and sims 1 point down. I'd make this play again.
>Mike_Early: EMORV 14A MOVER +25 264
>Jim_Burlant: CDEMRTW D11 M.W.D +22 275
#note This was not autopilot. I serouisly considered 15A ME to defend against an X bomb, I thought that CDRTW would result in a guaranteed exchange on my next turn; not exactly ideal given that I'm a half step behind Mike. Between that and the tile pool (only 3 E's and a zillion A's unseen) I felt I needed to protect my E. Hence, this. Quackle says I should just take the 32 with ME 15A, saying this wins 3-1/2% less often and sims 4 points down on ME.
>Mike_Early: GIRY A11 GRI.Y +36 300
#note Then again, what does Mike do with this if I play ME?
>Jim_Burlant: AACERTU N1 .AU +6 281
#note Best is apparently F10 AAH for 17. This is a respectable second, but the game beginning to slip away. Last turn, my best play won 50% and my choice won 46-1/2. This turn, AAH wins 31, this wins 30-1/4.
>Mike_Early: INO O1 .INO +8 308
>Jim_Burlant: ACDERST 3M D.. +8 289
#note This does well statically but it's terrible in the sim. I never saw the best plays here: CAUSED/CAUSE/CAUSER L8 are the plays. This wins 39%; CAUSED wins 54. The sim is right - I need to be looking to score, not fish for a bingo that doesn't play.
>Mike_Early: CI 10E .IC +7 315
>Jim_Burlant: AACERST G12 ..A +3 292
#note This is where I finally rechecked the tracking and it dawned on me that I was sitting on the case S. Once I saw this, I put this down because he can't do anything about this. Q indicates a fish is the right call, but it prefers 3E AI, and a closer look at the tile pool explains why. While ACERST is a 44-caliber leave, most of the ACERST? bingoes in this pool don't start with S - something I failed to consider. Then again, the draw was kind.
>Mike_Early: ADG 3C GAD. +12 327
>Jim_Burlant: AACERST 3H .A +6 298
#note Still blind to L8 plays. I should be looking to score here with CAUSE/CAUSER. This is among the best of the rest.
>Mike_Early: AEUV C2 A.UE +5 332
#note Mike told me post-mortem he had the V and was setting himself up for a 1A play.
>Jim_Burlant: ACEIRST 15G STEARIC +84 382
#note Luckbox!
>Mike_Early: EENV 1A NEVE +33 365
>Jim_Burlant: BFNUX D5 XU +18 400
#note Down under 2 minutes, I second-guessed my tracking (always a problem against Mike) and I was taking no chances on being X stuck. The correct play is for me to play IF or IN 6K and Z stick him.
>Mike_Early: ARZ 6K .ZAR +15 380
>Mike_Early: (BFN) +16 396
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