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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Early Mike Early
>Jim_Burlant: AEFKNPT 8D KENAF +34 34
>Mike_Early: BCHLN E6 BL.NCH +26 26
>Jim_Burlant: AAMNNPT 9G MAN +21 55
#note Hmmm. If Quackle is to be believed this is the right idea with the wrong execution. Apparently, NAP 9G for 17 is one point better and wins 1/2% more often than this. Do the O and Y back hooks to MAN that NAP doesn't give back really justify giving up 4 more scoreboard points? Or is AMNT that much stronger of a leave than ANPT? Short of examining Quackle's master leave file, I don't see how the difference is so great that I should give up 4 scoreboard points.
>Mike_Early: AJR 10H RAJ +34 60
>Jim_Burlant: ANOPRTV K9 PARVO +31 86
#note It's either this or VAPOR, and my problem with VAPOR is that it prematurely constricts the eastern side of the board, which could be trouble if Mike subsequently hits on rows 12, 13, or 14. Quackle agrees - this wins the sim.
>Mike_Early: EHOP 6B PHO.E +20 80
#note Aargh! Darn you and your phonies, Mike! In the shame on me department, I didn't so much as hold - amazing how this came down as I was trying to figure out what to do with the garbage I had just drawn.
>Jim_Burlant: FNSTTUU 13J F.UNT +16 102
#note I couldn't think of TOFU 13J and all I saw was this and not much else. The sim takes a while to sort out but this gets the edge by a bit, as it sets up the S hook for the triple. The sim result indicates that this position comes down to a matter of how dangerously I want to live - to set up the S hook on the triple? Or play it safer with TOFU? This wins the sim at 55.2%, with TOFU winning roughly 1/2% less often and simming one point down. Pick your poison.
>Mike_Early: CILZ C2 ZILC. +38 118
>Jim_Burlant: AGSTTUV 14F GUTTA +19 121
#note Talk about a dispiriting draw. Q confirms I don't have a play down the O column, and I was fixated on unloading the G and the U. In the absence of anything better I thought I'd give him a distraction and hope to try again. This is a decent choice but not best. Best is the simple D1 VAT. VAT wins 47-1/2%; this wins roughly 43 and is a 7-point dog.
>Mike_Early: ?BDEIRS O7 BIDdERS +89 207
>Jim_Burlant: AIIORSV H12 VI.A +33 154
#note I considered SAVIOR 15J but didn't like burning all the ammo. I didn't consider much other than this, as I was overly paranoid about his hitting something like QATS H12 (this is Mike, after all). The sim says it's either this or SAVIOR 15J, with the difference in the sim being a matter of style preference; SAVIOR wins 14.46%, this wins 14.2 and sims less than one point down. And this did work out. VIZOR 2A also worth consideration.
>Mike_Early: AAWY 4B A.WAY +22 229
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIORSU L4 OUREbIS +78 232
#note Bingos all over the place, but this is best. Back from the dead but still in the hole - not quite 38-1/2% to win.
>Mike_Early: EEGO D11 OGEE +15 244
>Jim_Burlant: EELOOUW C13 WOE +24 256
#note I didn't notice row 2, and Quackle says my tack should be to set up the W with a 2A play - either OUZEL or OUZO. Problem is, if he's got the M or Y (or even something starting with D) in his rack I could gift-wrap him the game. This is the best opton I have that unloads the W, and it keeps the U as Q insurance in case something takes out the U in OUREbIS. OUZEL wins 43-1/2%, OUZO wins 42.1, and this wins 38 if the duck is to be believed.
>Mike_Early: AEORTT 15J ROTATE +27 271
>Jim_Burlant: EILNOSU 2A OU.EL +28 284
#note I spent a long time here, as I looked (a) for the bingo that didn't play and (b) for an alternative to the obvious OUZEL 2A. Even though DDDMY are still unseen, I no longer have a choice; if I'm going to score I have to play on row 2. Quackle agrees: this is best, and it wins 48-1/2%.
>Mike_Early: EILMOQR 5I ROQ.E +28 299
#note His rack. Post-mortem, Mike told me that he felt that it was this turn on which he lost the game. His analysis looks correct: 5I LIQUOR is best, and it wins 56%. This barely wins 40. When he put this down I figured I was in serious trouble, as I was sure he had the X.
>Jim_Burlant: DEIINSY N2 YIDS +31 315
#note I'll see his mistake and raise him an even bigger one. I never recognized the star play: 6J YIRD. Not only does it score 43 to this play's 31, but it defends against the X, which this does not. I don't care if this shows up as the bronze medalist in the sim; YIRD 6J should have been the play, and this is absolutely atrocious. I've almost certainly ensured that this game will come down to whoever gets the X.
>Mike_Early: GI 15A GI. +12 311
>Jim_Burlant: DEIINTX 1E EXIT +35 350
#note I'd rather be lucky than good. I was astounded to see the X in my rack. I mistracked and had him sitting on DEILMOS; hence, I put this down becaue I thought I had to block MELOIDS. If I track correctly, the best play is obviously EX 6I to set up a TIDING out down the A column.
>Mike_Early: DEILMNS 3F MILDEN +19 330
>Jim_Burlant: DIN 2J DIN +17 367
#note I played about as well as I'm capable of until my YIDS blunder; luck bailed me out of that mistake.
>Jim_Burlant: (S) +2 369
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