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#player1 John_Redding John Redding
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>John_Redding: NOOZ 8H ZOON +26 26
#note Assuming John didn't have an S, his best placement is 8F or 8G.
>Jim_Burlant: AAAEIQU 9E AQUAE +30 30
#note With this many vowels in the rack, I don't have much choice. I have to clear as much of the overload as possible, which this does. This is best - 42% to win.
>John_Redding: LLTY E8 T.LLY +16 42
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIOTY D12 AYE +22 52
#note I hated this play but, again, the rack didn't give me many options. This could be trouble if he's got something big with an S waiting for me on row 15. 43% to win.
>John_Redding: ?ADMRST L8 SMARTeD +85 127
#note Better would have been C8 TSARDOM for 89. John is 77% to win with this choice.
>Jim_Burlant: EEIJORT 13A JOE. +28 80
#note I was so busy grooming the rack that I never saw C12 JO. Sad, but true. I struggled as I decided what to do: REJOIN K3 to open up the northeast? 13B JOY? I hated the easy points this gave back, but it was my pure best rack balancer and, if nothing else, it would give him a distraction that would (hopefully) allow me to bingo on rows 11 - 14 if I had a good draw. While this is my second best choice, it's justifiably a distant second to JO C12, which should have been the play. JO wins 26-1/2%; this wins 22 in a short sim.
>John_Redding: AEE A12 A.EE +36 163
#note At least he didn't have ADHIS in his rack.
>Jim_Burlant: BEHIPRT 11G PREBI.TH +80 160
#note Only bingo - back in the game, though the duck says I'm only 39% to win. Non bingo options of note: EPHEBI/EPHEBE 14A both score 43.
>John_Redding: ?EIILMU N11 .ILI +14 177
#note His rack. If he hits, he's winning at least 80%. This was the turning point of the game.
>Jim_Burlant: ADDHIRV 8A DAVI. +30 190
#note Best. B9 HAVIOR also worth consideration.
>John_Redding: CENOS 15D SCONE +32 209
>Jim_Burlant: DDEEHIR 14F HIDED +40 230
#note Best. The game is more or less a crapshoot in Quackle's eyes; I'm 53% to win.
>John_Redding: CKU C10 CUK. +20 229
>Jim_Burlant: AGOORSX B13 .X +36 266
#note I wondered after the game whether I got this sequence wrong. My thinking at the time was that, while there were any number of dumps available that could take out B13, I felt he couldn't hit me down the O column without the S, so I opted for this in case he dinked off something like ORT to kill the X spot. Q says I should play 13G GOO for 20 or O8 GOOS. GOO wins 64.6%; this wins 63-1/2% and sims 1.8 points down at just over 1000 iterations. This came out in the wash.
>John_Redding: EFM 13I FEM. +24 253
>Jim_Burlant: AEGOORS O8 GOOS +31 297
#note Now there's no doubt - this is definitely best. 75% to win. The game became a cat-and-mouse affair from this point as I had a rather amusing sequence of racks, as you'll soon see.
>John_Redding: ENNRSUV -ENNRS +0 253
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNRW G13 W.. +10 307
#note I had my eye on the D sitting at A8 and I felt my best bet was to fish for an 8. Quackle agrees - this is best.
>John_Redding: PRT B6 TR.P +8 261
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNRR J11 .R.. +7 314
#note Close but no cigar. On a valuation basis, a 6 I didn't know, LARINE, plays at A1 and sims with highest valuation. The sim takes a long time to decide if it's the best play. Looking at the position now, while LARINE defends the A column, the problem I have with it is that it blows up the rack for not a lot of points. If I don't land the blank and he hits, my lead may not be big enough to withstand his bingo and I may not have a good enough comeback play if I'm sitting on a random rack. If, OTOH, he hits and I keep the rack together, anything he does put down is going to open all sorts of juicy lanes for me and I can hopefully reply with a bingo of my own. After 1000+ iterations Quackle gives marginal preference to LARINE, but the difference is barely 1/4% winning chances. I'd make this play again.
>John_Redding: GNU A4 GNU +8 269
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNRW I7 W.. +10 324
#note The same exact rack as two turns ago. Same rationale applies here as on my previous turn. Quackle agrees: this is best.
>John_Redding: I 10E .I +17 286
>Jim_Burlant: AEILNRR 4A .NARLIER +70 394
#note As Yogi Berra would say, "It's like deja vu all over again." For the second straight turn, this is the same exact rack I had two turns before. Thankfully, this time, the bingo plays.
>John_Redding: BGNO 3G BONG +20 306
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIOTV 5H AVIATE +21 415
#note And I fall asleep at the switch. I thought smugly to myself that I had shut down all his easy 7's when he hit me with this:
>John_Redding: ?EFINSU N1 INFUSEd +82 388
#note <>
>John_Redding: (OT) +4 392
#note Outside of JOEY instead of JO, I really could not have played better than this until my AVIATE turn, where I lost concentration and didn't look hard enough at the pool. That said, the AVIATE mistake didn't cost me the win. I'll take it.
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