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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Kate_Watson Kate Watson
>Jim_Burlant: AAIILOU -AIIOU +0 0
#note The sim takes a few hundred iterations before it starts sorting out; this eventually percolates its way to the top. Keeping AIL instead of AL wins roughly 1/3% less often and sims over a point down.
>Kate_Watson: AEILN 8D ALINE +12 12
>Jim_Burlant: AEELMOR C8 MORALE +26 26
#note This was not auto-pilot. I considered dumps like 7F OE and felt that they gave up too much on the score for a good, but not great, leave. This left an E, took out the ALINE front hook, and was the only option I had that scored decently. Quackle agrees with me - this is best. C7 AMOLE 17 is next best, winning 3/4% less often and simming nearly 2-1/2 points down at 1000 iterations. This wins 48-1/2%.
>Kate_Watson: BEGIW B11 BEWIG +33 45
>Jim_Burlant: EENNOUW 9G ENOW +14 40
#note FAIL. My problem with the various placements of UNWON was the board position and lack of score. I thought this was a crappy play at the time, but it was the only thing I saw that didn't leave me without consonants that also didn't potentially give back the kitchen sink. If you miss NGWEE 15A like I did, the rest of your options suck. Since I whiffed on NGWEE, This was the only one I could live with. (-12.5)
>Kate_Watson: XZ D7 Z.X +28 73
>Jim_Burlant: EEFINRU 15B .UNFIRE +36 76
#note I didn't look to play short here. While D12 FEU does well statically, the problem is that, while it does add resistance and reduce possible 3x3's, it opens up hooks for the unseen DDDDSSSS and I'm only drawing 3 tiles (which means that I only have a 33% chance of landing one of DS). This does blow up the rack, but there are worse things I can do than take out row 15 for 36 and draw 6 to an E with both blanks unseen. As for the duck: at 1000 iterations, the sim gives slight preference to D12 FEU; FEU wins 42.49%; this wins 42.12 and sims 0.2 points down. Nothing else is worth consideration.
>Kate_Watson: V 9B V.. +13 86
>Jim_Burlant: ?ACEIPR 14F PERACId +86 162
#note I almost got lost in the rabbit hole of trying to find the stylish 8 ending in AL at E1 (there is none) when a quick check of the arithmetic revealed that if I did find something there, it would only score 83, while this scores 86. Once I figured that out, this was my choice. I've got a whole boatload of bingoes to choose from, but the duck agrees: this is clearly best. 81% to win in a short sim.
>Kate_Watson: ?BIRSTY L11 BIR.Y +26 112
>Kate_Watson: ?BIRSTY -- -26 86
#note Her rack. Had I known her rack, I would have let her get away with this. Her best play is K6 BRISTLY with a blank L.
>Jim_Burlant: ADDGGNT K11 GAD.D +16 178
#note I figured that, worst case, she'd play BAY for cheap and without an S, her only bingo line would be on row 7. I never looked to score out of this; I figured I'd try to make her find an 8 with BY in her rack. Sometimes, things don't quite work as you want them to:
>Kate_Watson: ?BIRSTY 12H SYB.RITe +76 162
#note I literally laughed out loud as SYBARITE came down.
>Jim_Burlant: AGNOOTU O7 TONGU. +18 196
#note The play screaming to be made was OUTGON(e) O6. I rejected it because of the board position: she had just drawn 7 tiles and there were too many threats (e.g.: FISHY, HENRY, HINKY, etc.) that could score 50+ at N2 if I played OUTGONE. My first priority was defending the O column to take away her easy points, so I opted to put this down though I knew the duck wouldn't like the AO leave. Q says I should play OUTGONE or, alternatively, score with something like DONUT or DONGA 15K. While I stand by my decision to defend the O column, I failed to examine the tile pool closely enough on this turn. If the pool were consonant overloaded, then TONGUE would have been correct. But, given this vowel heavy pool and its lack of bingo prone consonants, OUTAG(e) (which I never saw) should have been the play, as it scores and defends identically but leaves a better NO instead of AO.
>Kate_Watson: EMNO N6 MENO +18 180
>Jim_Burlant: AEHOOOP M4 HOOPOE +34 230
#note I absolutely loved this play - it's my favorite play this game. Quackle may not have liked my previous choice, but this one's spot on. This is clearly best, and it wins 72%. My next best option is M6 OHO which wins 6% less often and sims 7 points down.
>Kate_Watson: IO 8J OI +7 187
>Jim_Burlant: AAAEKTV L1 KAVA +42 272
#note Not thrilled about opening the northeast for her, but 42 points is 42 points. The duck agrees - this is best. Next best choice wins 2% less often and sims over 8 points down.
>Kate_Watson: DIQU 2J QU.ID +70 257
>Kate_Watson: DIQU -- -70 187
>Jim_Burlant: AEHRTTU 1L .ART +24 296
#note I played this too quickly on autopilot. Much better would have been KHAT, but with very limited bingo lines available I'm not as concerned about rack building as I might otherwise be, so this is more of an equity slip than a major blunder given this game situation. Regardless, the idea is the same: kill row 1, and force her to bingo through the limited lines that are available. Even if I've compromised my rack, I'm still in excellent shape: just shy of 99% to win.
>Kate_Watson: CDIIQSU 2J QU.D +37 224
>Jim_Burlant: EEHTTUY 7H YETT +22 318
#note Just turning tiles and trying to make sure she can't catch up. I wasn't worried too much about balancing racks. This isn't one of the original choices but it outsims everything except 13G HUE, which I never saw.
>Kate_Watson: FRS M11 F.RS +25 249
>Jim_Burlant: AEHILLU 11E LEHUA +23 341
#note Again, missing HUE 13G.
>Kate_Watson: ACEINSS 6H ENS +23 272
>Jim_Burlant: DEIIJLT 12A J..L +38 379
>Kate_Watson: ACIS I2 SIC +21 293
#note ASCI goes out for 21 or 24 at 3G or I1.
>Jim_Burlant: DEIIT G2 TEIID +12 391
>Jim_Burlant: (A) +2 393
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