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#player1 Michael_McKenna Michael McKenna
#player2 JD JD
>Michael_McKenna: ?AEKNST 8D KENTiAS +80 80
#note I almost challenged, but challenging a SATINE bingo seemed to be taking the "challenge everything" ethos a little too far...
>JD: ?EIOOSW 9I WOOdIES +75 75
>Michael_McKenna: BENOWYZ 10H BEZ +72 152
#note this was apparently his exact rack, as I was later informed by eldar who was looking over his shoulder. newsboy keeping the Z is a realistic option here.
>JD: DELNOUX 10M OX +52 127
>Michael_McKenna: EHNOY O4 HONEY. +48 200
>JD: DEHLNOU D6 EL.HOUND +82 209
#note the only 7 or 8 in this rack
>Michael_McKenna: FOOW C3 WOOF +25 225
>JD: CCEIJRT 11C J.ICE +28 237
#note an odd play, where holding the J doesn't seem penalized as much as it would be in TWL, and just playing JIN leaving CCERT bingoes as much as keeping CRT.
>Michael_McKenna: DEE C11 .EED +32 257
>JD: ACNNRRT 4K RANC. +20 257
#note maybe I'm just not being creative enough here, but quackle's suggestions of FERN, TRONC at 4A and BRAN at H10 are unpalatable. However, Quackle says that putting the T at A4 doesn't actually increase Michael's average scoring, so maybe I was just too paranoid.
>Michael_McKenna: ADEIM 5G AMIDE +20 277
>JD: IINRTTY 12G TRINITY +74 331
#note a lucky draw, but I missed the extra 6 spots for the 6F spot.
>Michael_McKenna: AEGPR 3I GRAPE +31 308
>JD: AALLRSV B13 LAV +22 353
#note even though I'm already up quite a bit, I thought it made sense to open the hook for my S, with only one other one out there, in order to maximize my chances of getting ahead.
>Michael_McKenna: INU H12 .UIN +12 320
>JD: AFLRRSU A8 FLURRS +35 388
>JD: ABGILOQ (challenge) +5 393
#note quackle does recognize the decrease in variance due to making this play (something you can see when win percentage significantly outperforms valuation) but prefers playing FAUR at 13K. In the defensive stats, his last play of RUIN has created places to bingo that make column A no longer as important. The pool is also very poor for bingoing (even if I assume an S on his rack, his bingo percentage is 25%). Short storry is that I might as well just play FAUR#. That said, I am happy that I remembered this CSW 5.
>Michael_McKenna: IMV K11 V.M +16 336
>JD: ABGILOQ G14 QI +24 417
#note is it worth it here to sacrifice 9 points to cut his bingo percentage in half (~20% to ~10%)? Blocking the N may not be as important as I thought, because very few 8s start with an N, and QI at 6F puts me up by 90 such that a 60-point bingo through the N would not be that scary, and he would also be emptying the bag anyway. And actually, QI at 6F blocks the second-scariest lane (underlapping on row 6, much easier in collins because of ARET#). Really, the only way he will beat me from here is fishing for a high-scoring bingo somewhere and then bingoing out, so I should really just take the points and outrun the worst-case scenario.
>Michael_McKenna: GPU 2M GUP +16 352
>JD: AABDGLO 1H DAGOBA +44 461
>JD: ILRST (challenge) +5 466
#note he will bingo a lot of the time at the bottom through the IN given the pool (initiates, insatiate, intestate etc) so my logic was to get as far ahead as possible to outrun. but DAGO puts me up 109 points, so his 80-point 9 + 20 from my rack would still lead to me winning by 9, and I keep the B to score with next turn somewhere. Still a sure win either way.
>Michael_McKenna: AAEEITT 6G TETE +19 371
#note best is TEAT at E3 blocking TIRLS and TWIRLS
>JD: ILRST E2 TIRLS +16 482
>JD: (AAI) +6 488
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