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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mike_Early Mike Early
>Jim_Burlant: ADEEITU 8E AUDITEE +66 66
#note Quackle wants me to play at 8B for 70; I was more concerned about giving up easy points due to vowel placement. The sim result says I gave up a hair too much on the scoreboard, as it docks me 2.3 points even though I give up 4 scoreboard points.
>Mike_Early: ANOPW K7 W.APON +22 22
>Jim_Burlant: DIKLOSY L11 YOK +29 95
#note Don't know how I missed this but YOLK scores 31 and doesn't give up the easy E back hook. The sim likes this best, but I do wonder if I got this slightly wrong, as I have an S and Mike is roughly 25% to have one.
>Mike_Early: EHJU 14K JEHU +39 61
>Jim_Burlant: DILNQSV O12 QIS +37 132
#note I considered two plays: this and 15L DINS. While DINS scores 43 to this play's 37, I couldn't wrap my arms around keeping LQV when, no matter what I did, I had to burn the S if I was going to score. Also - while the U in AUDITEE is there, if he doesn't have an O and he takes out the E column, my Q play may disappear. That pushed me towards this choice. The sim is slightly conflicted; this play sims with the highest valuation and wins 67.62% at 1000 iterations; DINS sims 0.3 points down but wins 67.76%. Pick your poison.
>Mike_Early: FIRY E7 F.IRY +22 83
>Jim_Burlant: DILNTUV 15L DIT +28 160
#note It took forever to find this as I couldn't find a good VU dump; somehow VIRTU 10C for 10 didn't seem worth it, and with 28 points available here, I figured I'd have to grind. I chose this because I thought that this play's LNUV leave is marginally better than LTUV given this pool. Quackle confirms it: while the difference is splitting hairs, this is marginally the best play. DIN in the same location wins roughly 0.35% less often and sims 1/4 point down. For reference, 15L LIN/LIT win 3 and 4% less often than this and sim 6 and 8 points down.
>Mike_Early: ETX I5 TEX. +19 102
>Jim_Burlant: GLNOUUV L3 VULGO +23 183
#note The tile gods have a sense of humor. I was more than a little miffed to see the second U in my rack, given that (a) I wasn't unable to unload my U on the previous turn and (b) there was only one U in a bag of 60 tiles when I picked 3 tiles. Fortunately I recognized that VULGO played at D3 and L3, so I knew I'd be able to clean most of this garbage out. I chose this placement because I wanted to eliminate possible -EST 7's at L3. Quackle agrees - again, the difference is slight, but this is the best play I have. 78.6% to win. The D3 placement wins roughly 3/4% less often and sims almost 2 points down.
>Mike_Early: ?EHISST D1 HESSITe +80 182
#note Placing the blank at 7D scores 81. I held this but let it go when I saw he had HASTIEST/ATHEISTS on row 5. Good thing I did, as this is good. Mike's back up to 38% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: EEMNNOU H1 NEUME +32 215
#note Chose this because it scored 32, (compared to C2 NEUME's 28) turned 5 tiles and left a decently balanced, if somewhat uninspiring, NO. I wasn't happy that, now that I finally saw some E's for the first time since my opening rack, I couldn't hold any of them. That said, I didn't think I had a choice. Quackle confirms this was the best play *I* was capable of making, but there was a better choice I didn't know: 1A NONHEME. It scores 36 to this play's 36 and doesn't open any dangerous hooks. In reality, the two plays are virtually interchangeable. NONHEME wins 0.4% more often than this and wins the sim. Valuation-wise, this only concedes 0.3 points to NONHEME.
>Mike_Early: ACE 1A EAC. +27 209
>Jim_Burlant: ELNOOOW G5 WOO. +15 230
#note Board vision failure. With his play of EACH having blocked my intended WOOL C2, I never noticed what should have been the obvious back hook to WO at M7. WOO M7 scores 9 more than this. M7 WOOL wins 58%; this wins 50 and sims nearly 11 points down.
>Mike_Early: GIP M7 PIG +22 231
>Jim_Burlant: AEELNNO D10 EON +13 243
#note Quackle says I had the right idea with the wrong execution: with the 5 unseen A's, I needed to play off my A to make AEON for 4 more. But now that he's got the N column open for an S hook, there's nothing wrong with opening this up. Its other top choice, 3J NOVEL looks reckless. Whether or not you agree with me, this worked out. 46% to win.
>Mike_Early: DGO C11 GOD +19 250
>Jim_Burlant: AEFILNR 1G I.FERNAL +62 305
#note Only bingo. It's a cheapie, but it still does the job and changes the complexion of the game. 78% to win in a short sim.
>Mike_Early: A 13L .A +24 274
>Jim_Burlant: ABCNORZ B12 COZ +36 341
#note INFERNAL added resistance to the N column; where anything ending in S played, now he has to have something ending in EST (still possible, granted). I initially considered BIZ 5C - scores 28, leaves a reasonable ACNOR...but I still didn't like the easy run he had at row 14. I then considered plays like COB B12 and rejected them when I realized they didn't defend anything. Then I eventually found this. While this play does not shut things down air-tight, the only way he can hit me on row 15 is if he has the blank, and even then it needs to be a Y. If he hits yARNERS for the win, well, that's when I chalk it up to not being my game. Quackle agrees with me - this is best, winning just shy of 81%. 5C BIZ is the bronze medalist, winning 2% less often, simming 2 points down.
>Mike_Early: AST 2H .AT +14 288
#note Though I wasn't paying attention to what he was doing at the time, this play puzzles me in retrospect. While he scores 14 here instead of 12 at 3L, he obviously had the S, and Mike would have been better served playing VAT 3M to force me to defend. With the draw I had, I would have been in real trouble had he done that. Instead, this bought me the extra turn I needed to put the game away.
>Jim_Burlant: ABDLNRR 2A LA +10 351
#note Quackle is useless in this position. If his last two plays of an A dump and an AT dump are an indication, he's obviously close to something. The only plays that score half decently and defend somewhat are C5 BARD/BARN, but they do nothing about the A column. And 5D DRIB still allows possible bingoes. At the time, looking at the board, the N column looked somewhat restricted. Without the blank, I couldn't do anything about row 15. It's important to note that at the time, I had forgotten about the I sitting at H8. So, incorrectly thinking that the only threats I could address were the A and B columns, I felt I didn't have the luxury of playing for equity and, terrible leave or not, I wanted to take away his easiest lines. Of Quackle's suggestions, the only thing that seems remotely useful is 5B DRIB, but as I said - that still isn't air-tight.
>Mike_Early: E 6C E. +2 290
>Jim_Burlant: BDNNRRR B6 BRRR +23 374
#note Bailed!!!!! Took about half a second for me to slap this down after I saw the hook. And Mike is now pretty much dead in the water.
>Mike_Early: I N1 .I +4 294
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABDMNN O2 DAMN +13 387
#note I overthought this and just wanted to make sure that he couldn't bingo on me. I shuld have considered possible extensions, which means that something like DAN would have been better. Regardless - as tense as this game had gotten, I was just happy to escape with the win.
>Mike_Early: AEILRST O2 ....ERS +30 324
>Jim_Burlant: ?BN 3G B.Na +18 405
#note Neither of us noticed that I had forgotten to draw the V that had been waiting for me in the bag. Whoops. Final score recorded as 413 - 322. I suspect that, had Mike opened up with VAT instead of playing EAT, he might have won this game. As for my own play - outside of playing WOOD for 15 instead of 24, I really can't play a whole lot better than this. Maybe DRIB instead of LA, but I had my reasons for making that play, terrible leave or not.
#rack2 AILT
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