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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Chris_Cree Chris Cree
>Jim_Burlant: ADIIOTY 8G TIDY +16 16
#note Round 2. Even though I didn't rush this turn, I was so blinded by the presence of the non-bingo-prone Y in conjunction with the vowel overload that I never saw the right play; I only recognized the mistake as I was looking at my next rack. As unlikely as I am to bingo by keeping AY, it's a lot better than leaving myself this vowel overload. The play was 8H IDIOT - a propos, since I was an idiot to have not seen that. What surprises me is that this sims as relatively well as it does, conceding barely 1.1% winning chances and not quite 3 points at 1000 iterations. I think this is a bigger mistake than Quackle says it is.
>Chris_Cree: ??ABELR H8 .naRABLE +77 77
#note Round 1 against Darrell Day had been difficult, as I helplessly watched him hit 3 bingoes in a 4-turn stretch mid-game while I struggled with rack management for the last half of that game. When this came down, I really had to remind myself to stay calm, given that I was down a bingo and sitting on a self-inflicted vowel overload. Anyway - this or IMBALMER 8H are Chris's best bingoes.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIMOS I7 O.E +8 24
#note There are no great options here. Nothing scores more than 18 (AMIE 7I) and anything else breaks up too much of the rack for not enough gain. With that in mind, I felt this position came down to either this or 9G ONE. While this scores 8 instead to ONE's 11, the board was my main consideration: if I underlapped with ONE, all he had to do was overlap down the G or I columns and I would have very limited options in a hurry. With this choice, northern half of the board is now wide open and things can't just shut down right away, which is essential given my deficit. The sim takes a while to sort out, but eventually this choice establishes itself as the best possible play.
>Chris_Cree: AIRVV J3 VIVAR. +19 96
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIMSS 11F SE.IEMAS +70 94
#note Bingoes play in several places: 7A SIAMESE/MISEASE, G1 SEAMIEST. The 7A plays score 64, and SEAMIEST scores 62. This scores 70 and is clearly best. Still in the hole, as my winning chances have only increased a hair, from roughly 29% to 37% and change.
>Chris_Cree: ANW 10J WAN +33 129
>Jim_Burlant: AKNNORT 12D KRON. +22 116
#note Board vision failure - this is a good play, but not best. G8 TOKEN scores 20, doesn't shut the board down on myself, and leaves a more complete ANRT. If I was going to play these 4 tiles off, KRONA scores 2 more at 6F. TOKEN wins 40%, this wins 38.3 and sims 2.7 points down at 1000 iterations.
>Chris_Cree: ALOW 12K AWOL +33 162
>Jim_Burlant: AADEHNT 4H HA.NT +24 140
#note I never saw any of the row 13 plays - 13M DAH and 13C HAED are the standouts. DAH wins not quite 34%; this wins 29 and coughs up an awful lot. If you miss those two plays, the rest of the options are mediocre and this is as good as any of them. But DAH needed to be the play. How do I not find a 3-letter word I've played countless times?
>Chris_Cree: DEGG 15H .GGED +10 172
>Jim_Burlant: ADEELOR 13M DOE +18 158
#note If you miss the best play as I did, this is your next best choice. While missing DAH was definitely not good on my previous turn, Quackle indicates that this position comes down to stylistic preference: do you score with LAEVO 5G or groom the rack with this? LAEVO is 37% to win, and this wins 36.7 and sims not even a half point behind.
>Chris_Cree: GN O13 .NG +12 184
>Jim_Burlant: AEILPRS D6 SPARLI.E +65 223
#note As ENG came down, I was feeling better about my chances - to this point, other than his opening rack bingo, his clunk had scored, but he wasn't getting anywhere; he replaced clunk with more clunk and was running the tile treadmill. That he had another go-nowhere turn made me realize he was struggling. As for this, this is my only bingo. 64% to win in a short sim.
>Chris_Cree: JTU 6B JU.T +27 211
>Jim_Burlant: EHIOPTU H1 OUP. +27 250
#note My thinking at the time was that, with only 4 E's unseen and Chris probably sitting on one, E's were becoming premium tiles and I needed to hold mine. Quackle says OUPHE was the play and docks me a little more than 2 points and says OUPHE wins 1-1/2% more often. My hunch is that the difference in win percentage is due less to the extra 3 scoreboard points than the defensive position. If Chris has a 4 ending in E in his rack that plays at 5E (ADZE or AXLE are the worst cases here) leaving the E hook on OUPH gives him 10 more points for those plays - potentially enough to lose a tight game.
>Chris_Cree: BEZ C3 ZEB. +30 241
>Jim_Burlant: EHIIRTT C13 HIT +22 272
#note I debated between two plays: HITTER E3 and this. I ultimately chose this because I thought row 1 had some possibilities with the EIRT leave of this play, and I also thought that HITTER didn't really defend 8A; if he scored there, where would I come back? I thought this did a better job preserving the rack and opneing up a countering line. Quackle says the position comes down to stylistic preference between the two plays, and the sim is conflicted: HITTER tops the sim at 64.47%; this sims with 0.6 points higher valuation and wins 0.3% less often. Other candidates earning honorable mention are E3 TITTIE and E4 TITI. Beyond those choices, nothing else is worth consideration.
>Chris_Cree: DUY 15A DU.Y +36 277
>Jim_Burlant: EEINORT A8 ORIENTE. +80 352
#note That certainly worked out. This is my only bingo - over 92% to win in a short sim.
>Chris_Cree: IMRX 4B R.MIX +28 305
>Jim_Burlant: EFFLOST 6H FL.T +12 364
#note This board is not particularly Q friendly - if I play with the F down the B column, something like COX F2 from him renders me Q stuck if I don't draw the U or an I. So, as tempting as the points were for the B column plays, I took the just-in-case tack: while I was certain he didn't have any bingoes on row 1, I didn't want to take any chances on his having a miracle bingo down the L column. This took the bag down to one, killed the L column just in case and still gave me a potential play of FOXES for 39 while leaving me two spots for the Q if I drew it. The sim and championship player vary greatly in their opinion of this position: the sim wants me to take the points with a bunch of B column plays. Championship Player says I had the right idea with the wrong execution: CP prefers OFF 5L to set up the S hook down the O column. This doesn't evaluate well, but it gets the job done.
>Chris_Cree: A 3C .A +15 320
#note An excellent play by Chris from my perspective - he knows he can't win, but he's forcing my hand here: now that he's taken one of the two Q spots away, I have to play the Q on this turn, which will preclude any possibility of my hitting F2 FOXES.
>Jim_Burlant: EFIOOQS 2E FIQ.E +19 383
#note The mental gymnastics of this position were beyond me. I needed to worry less about the out in two and more about milking my tiles for points. M2 QIS scores 33 and leaves me the F for a play down the B column. This cost me 11 points of spread.
>Chris_Cree: ACCEINU 1B UNCIA +17 337
#note Best play for Chris.
>Jim_Burlant: OOS 13H .OOS +13 396
>Jim_Burlant: (CE) +8 404
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