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#player1 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Darrell_Day: AAITUY 8D YAUTIA +26 26
>Jim_Burlant: AEFLLWY 7I FLAWY +31 31
#note Strong choice, but not best. FLYWAY D3 scores 36, but I didn't know the word. FLYWAY wins 49% and this wins 47.
>Darrell_Day: AAIT L6 A.AIT +9 35
>Jim_Burlant: CEELOTV M3 COVE. +28 59
#note It's either this or 8K LAEVO. LAEVO scores 31 to this play's 28; LAEVO gets the nominal edge in the sim and is a hair better, but the difference in the sim suggests the difference is a matter of stylistic preference and not a clear-cut case of right/wrong.
>Darrell_Day: DEIT D4 DEIT. +18 53
>Jim_Burlant: BEGLPST 4K BL.G +14 73
#note The only scoring option here is 8K BASTE for 39, leaving an inert GLP. I didn't consider blowing the rack apart for only 39, and I felt it was necessary to dump the extra consonant rather than play BEG. Admittedly it was risky to set up the S hook, but I have a 100% chance of having an S; there's no guarantee Darrell does. It takes a few hundred iterations for the sim to start sorting out; eventually, this play percolates to the top and stays there. 61% to win.
>Darrell_Day: AINRTU 5F NUTRIA +20 73
>Jim_Burlant: EEKPRST C3 KEP +25 98
#note Debated between this and O1 KEPS. For some reason, I convinced myself that KEP didn't take the S (it does) and rationalized that this scored 25 and left a very a potent combo, giving me a great chance of bingoing down the O column on my next turn. I chose this over the K9 placement for 26 because K9 gives back an I hook as well and makes things needlessly volatile. It takes a little while to sort out, but Quackle agrees with me - this eventually bubbles up to the top of the sim. KEPS O1 sims nearly 3-1/2 points down and wins 2% less often.
>Darrell_Day: EHINNOS H8 .NHESION +86 159
#note Nice find! This is his only bingo.
>Jim_Burlant: DEEMRST 13G D.METERS +82 180
#note A number of bingoes available - F7 MUSTERED, 11B DEEMSTER, 13C DEMERITS,and 14G MODESTER all score in the 60's/70's. This is the only option I have that scores in the 80's. It's best, and the game is more or less a crapshoot: the duck says that, in a short sim, I'm 52% to win. To this point, while I haven't played perfectly, I have played the best game of which I am capable and the imperfections have been minor. From this point forward, when his next play took away the one viable play out of an otherwise awkward rack, I felt at the time like I lost the plot and had no clue what I was doing. The game rapidly deteriorated, as you'll soon see.
>Darrell_Day: ILOPU B4 POILU +20 179
>Jim_Burlant: GNOOQRX 8A X. +27 207
#note His play of POILU was the game changer; with GOX no longer avaialble, my conundrum was that I didn't have a Q play, the leave with the X dump was horrible, anything else I put down required me to keep XQ...what to do? This felt wrong when I put it down, but in the absence of my being able to find anything better, I shrugged my shoulders and took 27 points. The sim results and Championship Player's evaluation suggest that what I needed to do was write this position off as a lost cause, leave 8A alone, and dump as much of the rack as I possibly could ; hopefully, the turnover allowme to land an I or U that would guarantee the 50+ X play (or possibly a Q bomb if one opened up) on the next turn. I say that because, even when simmed against his next rack of ACDEIOS, best is apparently ORGONE 11C keeping QX. Against a random rack, ORGONE wins 44% and this wins 30. Against his next rack, ORGONE doesn't even win 20% and this barely wins 14. Between this mistake and his next two racks, I can't win this game.
>Darrell_Day: ACDEIOS 15A DIOCESA. +92 271
#note Best bingo for Darrell; against a random rack he's 81% to win. And my rack increases those chances.
>Jim_Burlant: GINOOQR B14 Q. +22 229
#note Best statically, and it sims decently but not great. Again, I should apparently hold onto the Q and play A1 GIRON for 35. The small consolation: with his next rack, this game was over regardless of what I did here.
>Darrell_Day: ELNOORS 11D LOOS.NER +82 353
#note Even with both blanks unseen to Darrell, he's 99% to win. Stick a fork in me - I'm done.
>Jim_Burlant: AGINOOR A1 GROAN +35 264
#note Or ORGAN or GIRO or GIRON. Whatever - my winning chances are less than 1/2%.
>Darrell_Day: DEFI 10J FE.ID +36 389
#note A fantastic play by Darrell - not only does this score well, but it eliminates any 56-point JOUST type plays and gives absolutely nothing back.
>Jim_Burlant: ?IMORTZ F10 Z.O +32 296
#note Yeah, I'm rattled. 12A ZORI scores 50 but apparently the best equity play is L12 ZERO - presumably so I can hit a spread saving bingo? Regardless, my winning percentages are still in the dumps. I'm ostensibly 5% to win with ZERO and this wins 1.2.
>Darrell_Day: ?GUV O1 VUGs +28 417
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIJMRT L12 J.TE +24 320
#note Again, no clue...and I've packed it in at this point. Best is apparently G3 JEU to prevent this:
>Darrell_Day: AEHW H1 WHEA. +36 453
>Jim_Burlant: ?BIMR 15K B.RMs +24 344
#note Through the first five turns I played a solid game, but I had absolutely no idea what to do when POILU took away the one play that made sense out of that rack. From that point on the game was beyond my comprehension. I could not figure out how to clear the power tile overloads and manage the racks effectively. That I lost by over 100 is entirely my fault. Was this a winnable game? I doubt it, but we'll never know for sure.
>Darrell_Day: ENR 2H .ERN +9 462
>Darrell_Day: (I) +2 464
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