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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Paul_Holser Paul Holser
>Jim_Burlant: ?HINNOQ 8G QI +22 22
#note I briefly considered QUOIN 8D to turn more of the rack, but figured that it needed to outscore this by a lot more than 24 points to justify it. Quackle confirms it: QUOIN wins 4% les often and sims 8 points down.
>Paul_Holser: GIT 9F GIT +19 19
>Jim_Burlant: ?HINNOV 10C VINO +14 36
#note It's either this or 7H HON. Besides keeping the V, HON 7H, Quackle's runner-up, is reckless IMO. I don't care if I have the blank - I'm not going to open up an E hook down the 2x2 with 12 E's unseen. This is definitely the best play I have.
>Paul_Holser: NOR 11D NOR +16 35
>Jim_Burlant: ?EHIKNO I2 HONKIEs +76 112
#note I did not auto-pilot this, as I came very close to putting down 12A HONK. Between opening up the 3x3 and leaving EI? instead of something like ER?, I felt that HONK needed to come within 25 or 26 points of the bingo to justify not bingoing; this choice outscores honk by 32. Quackle agrees - in a short sim, HONK 12A is 3rd best; this is best, 7H HONKIES sims 3-1/2 points down and wins 1-1/4% less often than this, and HONK 12A wins 0.2% less often than HONKIES 7H. I'm 75% to win.
>Paul_Holser: AEP J2 APE +20 55
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIJLM H1 JAM +49 161
#note How nice would it have been to have drawn the Z instead of the M for JEZAIL? No matter - I don't have a meaningful 1J play, and Quackle confirms - this is best, as it scores 49 while none of my other options scores more than low 30's. For reference, my next best play, K1 AJEE, scores 17 less and sims over 10 points down at 400 2-ply iterations.
>Paul_Holser: EO 12E OE +10 65
>Jim_Burlant: EEEEILU -EEEIU +0 161
#note Tile drawing failure. The only play I have that scores is K3 EEL, and the rest of the options are exchanges. While EEL scores 17, the EEIU leave is *so* bad that attempting to play through wins 2% less often and sims nearly 8 points down on this, if Q is to be believed. This is my best exchange.
>Paul_Holser: ?ACEINR K4 tACRINE +68 133
#note What should you do if you're Paul? This? 6E IRENICAL? 1J CARNIE? Post-mortem, Paul was not happy with this choice and he struggled with it during the game. Quackle's evaluation is that all three choices (CARNIE, IRENICAL, tACRINE) are valued within 0.3 points of each other. CARNIE wins 25.08%, IRENICAL wins 24.92, and this wins 24.44. Pick your poison.
>Jim_Burlant: EEEILSW J9 EWE +29 190
#note Too bad he didn't float an H for WHEELIES. As for this, it's the obvious best play: it balances the rack and maximizes score within that context. The only options I have that score more require that I burn the S.
>Paul_Holser: ABEPTTW -ABEPT +0 133
>Jim_Burlant: CEILLSS 11H LI.S +26 216
#note I chose this over LES because I didn't like giving all the easy front hooks back at H11. Quackle agrees with me - this is best. 90% to win.
>Paul_Holser: BOOY H11 .OOBY +33 166
>Jim_Burlant: CELSSWZ 13F SC.WL +23 239
#note I chose this to unload the W, the duplicated S, and clear as much of the garbage as possible while keeping ESZ. Quackle agrees - this is best. Just shy of 91% to win.
>Paul_Holser: DF D9 F..D +24 190
>Jim_Burlant: DENPSUZ L1 ZEPS +56 295
#note I didn't like giving back a bunch of easy points. But, worst case, he's merely treading water if he plays with the Z. And if he bingoes on row 15, then I've got an almost guaranteed 39 coming back on row 1. Quackle agrees - this is best. ZEDS scores 51 and wins roughly 2/3% less often than this and sims 2-1/2 points down.
>Paul_Holser: AEOT 1K A.OTE +42 232
>Jim_Burlant: DDIMNTU 2L .DIT +19 314
#note Strictly from the rack management perspective, MUDDY 15D would appear to be the play. And it's certainly not a bad choice, as it takes out row 15 and leaves a decent INT. But the problem is that it leaves the N and O columns wide open for him, and I'd like to shut those down before I worry about row 15. I chose this over EMIT to ensure that I didn't keep duplicated D's with a D still unseen. As for Quackle: 2L EMIT is best per Championship Player, and MUDDY and this win roughly 0.75 and 0.9% less often and evaluate 1.2 points down.
>Paul_Holser: FRU 6K .URF +17 249
>Jim_Burlant: DMNNTUU 15D TUNN. +9 323
#note Tile drawing fail yet again. He has opened the S hook down the O column and he's really caught me with my pants down; I can't do anything about the O column with these tiles. All I can do is cross my fingers and hope he can't hit . I rejected N6 FUND because it made it easier for him to hit the O column. I chose this after rejecting FUND because it shut down row 15 and cleared as much of this garbage as possible. Quackle agrees - while other plays like 6F MUNI and 5F DUNK and exchanging DMNTUU have higher valuation, this wins more often than any other choice. This is best.
>Paul_Holser: EILSTUV M6 .IVULETS +76 325
>Jim_Burlant: ADELMOU 8M .UM +24 347
#note Auto-piloted this and didn't consider anything else. Quackle agrees - my next best play, VAU 8M, scores 6 less and sims 4 points down. I'm just shy of 59% to win.
>Paul_Holser: AERY L12 AERY +28 353
>Jim_Burlant: ADEHLOR 15L .ODH +33 380
#note Chose this because it's the only good play I saw; I whiffed on the 5's HYDRO and HYDRA. The sim thinks this is best, with HYDRO and HYDRA winning 3/4% and 1.5% less often than this. Championship Player says I made a mild mistake; while this has the highest valuation according to both Championship Player and the sim, this is my second highest winning play in Championship Player's eyes; HYDRA wins 88.2, and this wins 87.3%. While this worked, HYDRA should have been the play to take the bag down to 1; HYDRA is indicated here instead of HYDRO because 4 A's are still unseen where no O's are unseen.
>Paul_Holser: ADGGIRX 14A RADIX +37 390
#note His rack. The duplicated G's pretty much doomed him here.
>Jim_Burlant: AABEELR 3L .A +16 396
#note For the lower-division players reading this game, the rule of thumb for the end game is that your first priority is to address your opponent's best play. Given this board he cannot go out in one turn sitting on AGGT. The intuitive play looking at my rack is BLARE A11 for 27, leaving AER. The problem with that is, if I do that with him sitting on AGTT, he could conceivably play PAT for 21. If I take out 3M, he either has to block me from scoring 27 at A12 with BLARE, in which case I still have BLEAK/BREAK on row 5. Quackle confirms this was the right idea with the wrong execution. I should have played PAL for 7 more spread points, but that's all I got wrong here. This still got the job done.
>Paul_Holser: AGGT B13 G.G +5 395
>Jim_Burlant: ABEELR 5E BLEA. +22 418
#note Or BREAK.
>Paul_Holser: AT N8 .TA +11 406
>Paul_Holser: (ER) +4 410
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